“Odds On” is The Fly’s weekly series diving into the most interesting bets on events trading platforms like Polymarket, Kalshi, and Robinhood. Subscribers, add $EBET to your Fly portfolios for alerts on news about events trading.
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BACKGROUND: Bitcoin is currently priced at 110,728.97 as investors speculate the future of the volatile cryptocurrency. The bitcoin price has dropped back from its all-time high of around $126,000 per bitcoin. While plenty of public figures have spoken bullishly of the long-term merits of Bitcoin, the near-term direction has turned ambiguous.
THE BET: Polymarket offers the prop of “What price will Bitcoin hit in October?” with a total volume of $2797M. There are currently six markets with greater than 1% chance of happening. The options are as follows:
- Greater than $135,000 (volume $2.73M)
- Greater than $130,000 (volume $3.76M)
- Less than $100,000 (volume $2.34M)
- Less than 95,000 (volume $846,996)
- Less than $90,000 (volume $775,604)
- Less than $80,000 (volume $878,874)
Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 1% chance of bitcoin hitting $135,000 or greater. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 1.3c, while the “No” contract stood at 98.9c. Markets are assigning a 3% chance of bitcoin reaching $130,000 or greater. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 2.4c, while the “No” contract stood at 98.3c. According to Polymarket, there is a 11% chance of bitcoin being $100,000 or lower. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 11.3c, while the “No” contract stood at 88.8c, suggesting this market as the most likely result. Traders on Polymarket are pricing in a 4% chance of bitcoin hitting $95,000 or lower. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 3.9c, while the “No” contract stood at 96.4c. Markets are assigning a 2% chance of bitcoin reaching $90,000 or less. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 2.4c, while the “No” contract stood at 98.3c. According to Polymarket, there is a 1% chance of bitcoin being $80,000 or lower. The “Yes” contract was last trading at 1c, while the “No” contract stood at 99.2c
THE RULES: This market will immediately resolve to “Yes” if any Binance 1 minute candle for Bitcoin during October (from 00:00 AM ET on the first day to 11:59 PM ET on the last), has a final “High” price equal to or greater than the price specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
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