Novo results raising the bar for Viking’s oral VK2735, says Oppenheimer

Oppenheimer notes that Novo Nordisk (NVO) reported Phase 1 results for oral amycretin that show about 4.0% placebo-adjusted weight-loss at week 4, which “raises the bar” for Viking Therapeutics’ (VKTX) oral VK2735 ahead of Phase 1 data expected in Q1. The firm’s scenario analysis now forecasts 25% upside potential with 75% odds of success upon oral VK2735 showing about 3%-4% placebo-adjusted weight-loss at week 4, 10% downside with 15% probability if it shows about 1%-2% efficacy, and 20% downside with 10% odds if there is lower efficacy and/or unfavorable tolerability. The firm, which adds that it remains “optimistic for oral VK2735 following exceptionally strong” Phase 2 VENTURE results, has an Outperform rating and $116 price target on Viking shares.