Mosaic sees ‘robust’ potash demand for North America in 2024

2024 Market Outlook: “Global grain and oilseed markets are expected to remain tight in 2024. Crop production, threatened by geopolitical unrest, weather extremes and reduced fertilization, is struggling to keep up with strong demand driven by secular demographic changes and growing consumption from renewable fuels. As a result, global stocks-to-use ratios for grains and oilseeds are expected to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. Today’s healthy agriculture back drop and favorable economics will continue to incentivize growers to maximize yields and apply fertilizers. These demand factors are especially promising for the phosphate market as they are expected to be matched by tight global supply well into 2024. China’s exports are expected to remain capped as domestic agriculture and industrial demand is prioritized over fertilizer exports. Firm phosphate prices and low raw material prices suggest that stripping margins will stay elevated for the foreseeable future. In North America, after a long Fall application season and solid winter fill activities, demand strength continues into the Spring planting season. Brazil shipments are expected to remain solid in 2024 as barter ratio are favorable and growers need to replenish soil nutrients. In India, grower demand is strong and growers are waiting for higher government subsidy rates. Potash demand for North America is expected to remain robust in 2024, and demand in Southeast Asia and Brazil is expected to improve as the year progresses. Supply appears adequate to meet that demand in the near term.”