Mosaic provides 2024 market outlook

“Global grain and oilseed markets are expected to remain tight well into 2024. Crop production, threatened by geopolitical unrest, weather extremes and reduced fertilization, is struggling to keep up with strong demand driven by secular demographic changes and growing consumption from renewable fuels. As a result, global stocks-to-use ratios for grains and oilseeds are expected to remain under pressure for the foreseeable future. Today’s constructive agriculture back drop and favorable economics incentivize growers to maximize yields. After two years of under application, growers are seeking to replenish soil nutrients. In North America, a robust spring application season was followed by a successful summer fill program and very strong fall application. Brazil’s Safra season led to a recovery of shipments and lower inventories, particularly for phosphate fertilizers. Across most major growing regions around the world, inventories of potash and phosphates have been depleted and will need to be replenished in 2024. Potash supply remains uncertain. Belarusian exports in 2023 are expected to be down 3-4 million tonnes from pre-sanction levels, and only modest increases are expected for 2024 exports. Logistical constraints and geopolitical events are limiting other producers’ ability to make up the shortfall. In phosphates, China’s exports are expected to remain capped as domestic agriculture and industrial demand is prioritized over fertilizer exports. These factors together suggest global phosphates and potash markets will remain tight through the rest of the year and into 2024.”