Martin Marietta Q4 cement shipment estimates ‘look far too high,’ says Barclays

Barclays says that with two months of data reported, Martin Marietta’s Q4 cement shipment estimates “look far too high,” noting that the Street calls for 11.5% growth in Q4, the firm has been at 7.5%, and “both are well above recent run-rates.” Q4-to-date cement production is down 7% so to reach Q4 consensus would imply more volume than capacity allows, says the analyst, who adds that based on recent data Q4 shipments could be negative, not positive. Based on what the firm sees, a base case is volumes are down 5% for Q4 and a “best case is they’re flat” and using these shipment scenarios, the net result is about 10c of EPS risk, added the analyst, who has an Overweight rating on Martin Marietta shares.