Macquarie stays on sidelines as Vail remains vulnerable to weather volatility

Macquarie analyst Paul Golding notes Vail Resorts has released ski season data for its North American resorts. This is for the period ending 19 April 2024 and is compared to the prior year season-to-date ending 16 April 2023. The firm points out that the recent ski season has been negatively impacted by weak visitation. This was particularly acute earlier in the season, and while Vail has seen improvement in conditions and thus visitation over March/April across its North American portfolio, Whistler has remained a laggard in the portfolio, with lift ticket visitation remaining below its expectations, driving lowered guidance. Despite lower visits, lift ticket revenues were still up overall, along with Vail seeing growth in ski school and dining revenues. Macquarie also notes that 2024/2025 spring pass sales underway, down “modestly” in units and dollar sales through to the April deadline. The firm has a Neutral rating on the shares with a price target of $220 as the update is further evidence Vail remains vulnerable to weather volatility.