Leerink sees ‘marginal’ Q1 downside for Lilly amid supply constraints

Leerink reduced 2024 estimates for Eli Lilly to reflect incretin franchise revisions based upon prescription trends and the previously announced research and development charge. The firm says higher Mounjaro and Zepbound sales were more than offset by lower Trulicity sales. Although the firm anticipates “marginal” Q1 downside and notes that both Mounjaro and Zepbound script trends “have rolled over” in recent weeks due to supply constraints, it expects “compelling” tirzepatide Phase 3 sleep apnea results near-term. Leerink assumes that recent Mounjaro and Zepbound trends revert to growth, but adds “it is difficult to predict forthcoming weekly performance.” The firm keeps an Outperform rating on Lilly shares with an $821 price target.