JPMorgan sees favorable risk/rewards for Eli Lilly, Biogen into data

Heading into the donanemab Phase 3 data, JPMorgan analyst Chris Schott sees a favorable risk/reward for both Eli Lilly (LLY) and Biogen (BIIB) shares. The firm’s base case scenario, with a 60% probability, is for donanemab data to be largely inline with Leqembi’s Phase 3 and donanemab’s Phase 2 results. Such an outcome would both confirm a "meaningful role" for Lilly in the Alzheimer’s market as well as increase market conviction on the size of the overall opportunity for both Lilly and Biogen investors, the analyst tells investors in a research note. On Lilly, JPMorgan expects the shares to be up 10% in its base case, balanced against the shares being down 10% on outright study failure.