Here’s what Wall Street experts are saying about Nvidia ahead of earnings

Nvidia (NVDA) is scheduled to report results of its first fiscal quarter after the market close on Wednesday, May 28, with a conference call scheduled for 5:00 pm ET. What to watch for:

EXPECTATIONS: During its last earnings conference call, Nvidia said its outlook for Q1 included revenue at $43.0B, plus or minus 2%; and GAAP and non-GAAP gross margins of 70.6% and 71.0%, respectively, plus or minus 50 basis points. Current consensus EPS and revenue forecasts for Nvidia’s April-end quarter stand at 75c and $43.25B, respectively, according to data from Yahoo Finance.

UPSIDE Q1 RESULTS: In a research note ahead of earnings, Oppenheimer said it sees upside Q1 results and a roughly in-line Q2 outlook, despite the loss of H20 sales to China following U.S. government restrictions. China is now less than 5% of sales. Production of flagship GB200 rack-scale systems appears to have moved past their initial “growing pains.” Oppenheimer believes Blackwell 200/300 NVL72 equivalent volumes are still on track to meet/exceed 40K this year. It sees GB300 on track for seamless Q3 debut. Nvidia remains best positioned in AI, in Oppenheimer’s view, benefiting from full-stack AI hardware/software and unique rack-level approach. The firm reiterated an Outperform rating on the shares with a price target of $175.

COMFORTABLE WITH Q1 ESTIMATES: Wedbush believes that the primary question around Nvidia’s results and guidance is if the company can lift sales enough to offset the loss of H20/China business. The firm thinks H20 demand was running ahead of expectations into early April when the U.S. announced a ban on sales into China. And, it also believes Blackwell, if anything, has ramped better than anticipated following some initial stumbles. Net, Wedbush remains comfortable with its Q1 and consensus estimates at $43B, and also sees the apparent improvement in Blackwell shipments as potentially suggesting some room for gross margins to outperform expectations.

The firm is less certain whether better Blackwell shipments into Q2 will be enough to allow Nvidia to meet/exceed our current revenue estimates or slightly more conservative consensus numbers at $46.3B, given the loss of China sales likely represent at least a $3B – $4B headwind quarter-over-quarter. But it also thinks the company’s Q2 revenue outlook matters less, as investors become more confident around Nvidia’s intermediate term growth outlook following recent announcements around planned AI data center investments. Wedbush has an Outperform rating on the shares with a price target of $175.

MESSY H20 BAN: Sell side does not appear to have universally modeled the impact of H20 ban, so there is some downside potential vs. stale consensus, Morgan Stanley tells investors in a pe-earnings note. But if management is convincing that the supply of racks and non-rack Blackwell is improving, and that there is second half of the year acceleration, it should not matter, argues the firm. Morgan Stanley says it is “not buying the stock for the quarter explicitly, but buying it for what we believe is coming.” Nvidia remains the top pick in semis for the firm, which has an Overweight rating on the shares.

Also noting the “risk of messy Q2 guide,” BofA maintains a Buy rating on Nvidia. The firm flags the disconnect between Nvidia’s “$15B in lost China sales” with the lower $10B-$12B recent revision in its/investors’ FY26/CY25 sales expectations, and even lower $3.8B in consensus revisions. In fact, depending on the company’s original timing of China shipments, the disconnect could be magnified in Q2. Separate from the China impact, BofA awaits management’s confidence in gross margin recovery back to target mid-70s level in the second half of the year, as a sign of demand strength and Blackwell execution/rack-level product yields. Despite these near-term headwinds the firm remains bullish on Nvidia, a top sector pick given its unique leverage to the global AI deployment cycle, and possibility for China sales recovery on new redesigned/compliant products later in the year.

IN LINE RESULTS, SUSTAINED AI GROWTH: Stifel expects largely in line results and outlook despite the negative top-line impact related to recently disclosed H20 restrictions. The firm’s supply chain discussions continue to point to significant acceleration into the second half of the year with the recent news regarding Nvidia’s expanding footprint in the UAE and Saudi Arabia, which are supported by U.S. policy shifts, incremental to its broader supply chain conversations. Stifel does not expect any change to Nvidia’s leadership positioning in shaping global AI infrastructure and continues to view shares as attractively valued within the context of that positioning. The firm has a Buy rating on the shares with a price target of $180.

SENTIMENT: Click here to check out the recent Media Buzz Sentiment on Nvidia as measured by TipRanks.