Final Medicare Advantage rates positive for managed care, says JPMorgan

JPMorgan analyst Lisa Gill says the 2024 Medicare Advantage benchmarks are expected to decrease 1.1% year-over-year excluding risk coding trend and overall payments are expected to increase 3.3% on average including coding. The biggest source of improvement stems from the Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services’ decision to finalize the 2024 risk adjustment model, the analyst tells investors in a research note. The firm believes the phased approach is a win for plans and beneficiaries who will likely not experience a substantial year-over-year change in benefits. For the large cap managed care providers, the final rate notice is most positive for Humana (HUM), UnitedHealth (UNH), and Elevance Health (ELV), contends JPMorgan. It also believes the announcement has positive read through to capitated providers including Agilon Health (AGL), Oak Street Health (OSH) and Privia Health (PRVA).