Exxon Mobil: Plan more than doubles earnings potential from 2019-2027

ExxonMobil gave an update to its Corporate Plan through 2027, reflecting continued execution of its strategy to provide the products society needs and to lower emissions, both its own and others’. Since 2019, solid execution of ExxonMobil’s strategy has increased the earnings power of the corporation, adding about $10 billion to its annual earnings and cash flow at a real Brent price of $60 per barrel. These improvements provide a strong foundation to further grow annual earnings and cash flow by $14 billion from year-end 2023 through 2027, as the company continues to reduce structural costs and improve the mix of its business by growing production from low-cost-of-supply, advantaged assets and increasing sales of high-value performance chemicals, lower-emission fuels, and performance lubricants. The company also announced it intends to deliver $6 billion in additional structural cost reductions by year-end 2027, bringing the total structural cost savings to approximately $15 billion versus 2019. Upstream earnings potential is on track to more than double by 2027 versus 2019, resulting from investments in high-return, low-cost-of-supply projects. The company expects oil and gas production in 2024 to be about 3.8 million oil-equivalent barrels per day, rising to about 4.2 million oil-equivalent barrels per day by 2027, driven by growth in the Permian and Guyana. Product Solutions is leveraging scale and technology advantages to nearly triple earnings potential by 2027 vs. 2019. The company now anticipates total annual capital expenditures and exploration expense of $23 billion to $25 billion in 2024 and $22 billion to $27 billion annually from 2025 through 2027, generating an average return of approximately 30%. The company remains on track to complete $17.5 billion in share repurchases in 2023 as part of the $35 billion repurchase program previously announced for 2023 and 2024. After the Pioneer merger closes, the go-forward pace of the program in 2024 will be increased to $20 billion annually through 2025, assuming reasonable market conditions. ExxonMobil is pursuing more than $20 billion of lower-emissions opportunities through 2027, which represents the third increase in the last three years, from an initial $3 billion in projects identified in early 2021. The company is pursuing a portfolio of opportunities in lithium, hydrogen, biofuels, and carbon capture and storage that in aggregate is expected to generate returns of approximately 15% and could reduce third-party emissions by more than 50 Mta by 2030.