Caterpillar upgraded, Elf Beauty downgraded: Wall Street’s top analyst calls

The most talked about and market moving research calls around Wall Street are now in one place. Here are today’s research calls that investors need to know, as compiled by The Fly.

Top 5 Upgrades:

• HSBC upgraded Caterpillar (CAT) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $660, up from $405. The company’s Q3 results beat on a volume increase and its order growth accelerated to 25% year-over-year on strong power generation, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Argus upgraded Super Micro (SMCI) to Buy from Hold with a $64 price target. The company’s missteps on revenue delivery and margin shortfalls are fully reflected in share prices, while the potential for strong forward-momentum is being overlooked, the firm tells investors in a research note.
• Stifel upgraded Biogen (BIIB) to Buy from Hold with a price target of $202, up from $144, following the Q3 report. The firm believes the stock’s risk/reward is shifting favorably with clinical catalysts ahead.
• Stifel upgraded Scotts Miracle-Gro (SMG) to Buy from Hold with an unchanged price target of $70. The firm is surprised by the “muted” share reaction post the company’s fiscal Q4 report given the pressure ahead of earnings.
• RBC Capital upgraded UMB Financial (UMBF) to Outperform from Sector Perform with an unchanged price target of $128 after meeting with management. The overall message was positive as management sees an “extended runway” for growth, accelerating contributions from Heartland, the firm tells investors in a research note.

Top 5 Downgrades:

• Piper Sandler downgraded Elf Beauty (ELF) to Neutral from Overweight with a price target of $100, down from $150, following the fiscal Q2 report. Strong momentum at Rhode is continuing, but the 3%-4% sales growth implied for the core business in Elf’s fiscal 2026 outlook is “disappointing and not deserving of a premium multiple,” the firm says.
• Northland downgraded Coherent (COHR) to Market Perform from Outperform with a price target of $125, up from $105. Like peers Fabrinet (FN) and Lumentum (LITE), Coherent guided mid-range fiscal Q2 revenue ahead of the firm’s estimates, but guided to a “much wider” relative range than peers that includes sequential declines at the low end and 5% comparable sequential growth, versus 10%-20% at peers.
• JPMorgan downgraded CarMax (KMX) to Underweight from Neutral with a price target of $30, down from $50. The company’s preliminary Q3 results show additional market share loss and margin pressure “that is likely to take a while to arrest,” the firm tells investors in a research note. Benchmark and William Blair also downgraded CarMax to Neutral-equivalent ratings.
• BofA downgraded PTC (PTC) to Neutral from Buy with a price target of $208, down from $235. Initial FY26 constant currency annual recurring revenue growth guidance of 7%-9% year-over-year was below the 9.2% consensus and the firm’s prior 10.4% forecast, the firm noted.
• Citizens JMP downgraded Duolingo (DUOL) to Market Perform from Outperform without a price target following the earnings report. The firm sees no catalyst ahead for Duolingo to drive user growth. KeyBanc also downgraded the name to Sector Weight.

Top 5 Initiations:

• Freedom Capital initiated coverage of Brinker (EAT) with a Buy rating and $145 price target. The firm, which sees Chili’s as “still in the early innings of its transformation,” believes the brand can continue to gain market share given ongoing sales initiatives, increased marketing, improved customer service and a strong value proposition.
• Morgan Stanley initiated coverage of Galaxy Digital (GLXY) with an Overweight rating and $42 price target. The firm views Galaxy Digital as nascent artificial intelligence data center developer with a “clear path” to monetizing one of the largest single-campus high performance computer data centers under development.
• Stifel resumed coverage of Fulcrum Therapeutics (FULC) with a Buy rating and $20 price target. Recent 12mg data already support a “compelling profile” for pociredir and the “bar” for the full 20mg cohort is low, argues the firm, which adds that there’s “a blockbuster opportunity that supports meaningful upside” even as Fulcrum’s trial population and criteria exists today.
• Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Apellis (APLS) with a Peer Perform rating without a price target. The firm says the company’s Syfovre revenue has been “flattish,” with the launch is heading into a “high-scatter” indication where patient-finding may be a challenge.
• Wolfe Research initiated coverage of Abivax (ABVX) with an Outperform rating and $176 price target. The company’s odds of success in Crohn’s disease may be higher than that of ulcerative colitis, the firm tells investors in a research note.