Axon raises FY23 revenue view to $1.55B from $1.51B-$1.53

Consensus is for FY23 revenue $1.53B. The company said “Axon‘s FY23 revenue expectation has improved to approximately $1.55B, or 30% annual growth. Previously, Axon had guided to a FY23 revenue range of $1.51B-$1.53B, reflecting approximately 27%-29% growth year over year. Axon’s Q4 Adjusted EBITDA margin expectation of approximately 20% implies full year Adjusted EBITDA margin of 20.8%, exceeding our previously communicated expectation of Adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20% in 2023. This reflects an increase in Adjusted EBITDA dollars to approximately $322M, compared with the prior implied guidance range of $302M-$306M. We provide Adjusted EBITDA guidance, rather than net income guidance, due to the inherent difficulty of forecasting certain types of expenses and gains such as stock-based compensation, income tax expenses and gains or losses on marketable securities and strategic investments, which affect net income but not Adjusted EBITDA. We are unable to reasonably estimate the impact of such expenses, which could be material, on net income. Accordingly, we do not provide a reconciliation of projected net income to projected Adjusted EBITDA. We expect stock-based compensation expenses to be approximately $130M-$140M for the full year. Because our stock-based compensation expenses may vary based on changes in the share price or the actual timing of attainment of certain metrics, it is inherently difficult to forecast future stock-based compensation expense, which may also be materially affected by any future stock-based compensation plans, subject to shareholder approval. We expect 2023 CapEx to be in the range of $50M-$65M, in line with our prior guidance. Our 2023 CapEx plans include investments in TASER 10 automation and capacity expansion, including cartridge capacity and lab enhancements and global facility build-out and upgrades, including warehousing support for global shipping facilities. Looking into 2024, we are resuming consideration on our headquarters plans as we look at ways to continue to motivate, inspire and bring together our employees and customers, and to accommodate our future growth needs. As a reminder, we paused this work in summer 2022 and think now is a good time to reassess our plans.”