Alcoa sees FY24 alumina production 9.8M-10M metric tons

For 2024, the Company is providing an outlook for both production and shipments for both segments. Alcoa expects alumina production to range between 9.8 and 10.0 million metric tons and alumina shipments to range between 12.7 and 12.9 million metric tons in 2024. The difference between production and shipments reflects trading volumes and externally sourced alumina to fulfill customer contracts due to the curtailment of the Kwinana refinery. The Aluminum segment is expected to produce 2.2 to 2.3 million metric tons, an increase from 2023 due to smelter restarts. Aluminum shipments are expected to be between 2.5 million and 2.6 million metric tons, consistent with 2023, as increased shipments from smelter restarts are offset by lower trading volumes. Within first quarter 2024 Alumina Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects approximately $15 million of unfavorable impacts related to higher maintenance costs and lower shipments in Australia. In addition, the Company expects sequential benefits from lower raw material and energy costs to be fully offset by other factors. Within first quarter 2024 Aluminum Segment Adjusted EBITDA, the Company expects sequential favorable energy costs, primarily due to lower prices in Brazil and Norway, to be fully offset by lower product premiums and an unfavorable net impact due to the non-recurrence of fourth quarter 2023 items related to the IRA 45X credit and carbon dioxide compensation changes in Norway. Alumina costs in the Aluminum segment are expected to be unfavorable by $5 million sequentially. Additionally, the Company expects an unfavorable sequential impact of approximately $20 million from hedge programs for the Alumar smelter restart, which ended in December 2023.