Both the S&P 500 ETF (SPY) and the Nasdaq 100 ETF (QQQ) held on to close in the green on Thursday.
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With the government shutdown halting agencies like the Labor Department, data from private sector companies have taken on greater importance as investors and policymakers look for alternative signals on the health of the labor market and economy.
During September, planned job cuts as reported by Challenger, Gray & Christmas fell by 37% month-over-month to 54,064 in an encouraging signal. That comes despite the year-to-date total of 946,426, the highest since 2020. In addition, employers had plans to add 204,839 jobs through September, down by 58% year-over-year and marking the lowest level since 2009.
“With rate cuts on the way, we may see some stabilizing in the job market in the fourth quarter, but other factors could keep employers planning layoffs or holding off hiring,” said Challenger, Gray & Christmas senior vice president Andy Challenger.
Nonfarm payrolls, one of the key labor market figures the Fed uses to guide monetary policy, were originally scheduled for release Friday but is now at risk of delay due to the shutdown. According to Democratic Senator Elizabeth Warren, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) has already compiled the data and is ready to release it, although Trump is choosing to hold it back.
“While the data has been processed and there was time to prepare for the data’s release in the event of a government shutdown, the Administration is choosing not to release Friday’s jobs report,” wrote Warren in a letter to BLS acting commissioner William Wiatrowski and Office of Management and Budget (OMB) Director Russ Vought. The Fed will make its next interest rate decision on October 29.
Meanwhile, Trump is considering firing “thousands” of federal workers, said White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt. Trump added in a Truth Social post that he would meet with Vought to discuss job cuts to Democratic agencies and whether they would be temporary or permanent. Previous government shutdowns have resulted in an average of 1.9 million federal workers facing furloughs or delayed payment, according to a report from The Council of Economic Advisers.
The S&P 500 (SPX) closed with a 0.06% gain, while the Nasdaq 100 (NDX) returned 0.37%.
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