Jamie Dimon just fired off another warning shot. The JPMorgan (JPM) CEO said tariffs, geopolitical tension, and stagflation could knock markets off balance—yet investors barely blinked.
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Speaking at the bank’s annual investor day, Dimon said the Trump administration’s reduced tariffs are still “pretty extreme” and called today’s global risk environment “very, very high.” He added that the chance of stagflation is “a little bit higher” than most people think.
Despite the warnings, JPMorgan stuck to its full-year net interest income forecast of about $94.5 billion. CFO Jeremy Barnum told investors that “some headwinds have become tailwinds” and the bank is positioned to weather nearly any macro backdrop.
JPMorgan Sticks with Guidance Despite Market Uncertainty
The $3.9 trillion bank isn’t rattled. Barnum noted JPMorgan’s excess CET1 capital sits at $57 billion, enough to absorb recession risk. He said a moderate downturn would require a $3 billion reserve build. Anything worse could trigger “even bigger builds.”
Barnum also said JPMorgan has already booked a strong Q1, and the company is staying the course. “Our core philosophy hasn’t changed,” he told investors.
Dimon Succession Plans Are Still a Question Mark
Dimon, who turns 70 next year, gave no new clarity on succession plans. He said “nothing’s changed” from last year and it’s “up to the board.” JPMorgan’s top contender remains consumer banking chief Marianne Lake, who also spoke at the event.
Lake said the company had been expecting a soft landing “until recently” but now sees the base case as somewhere between soft and mild recession.
JPMorgan Pushes Forward with AI and Tech
One big focus this year? Artificial intelligence. Barnum called JPMorgan “an early mover in AI,” starting with fraud detection and now expanding into customer service and backend automation.
“We can’t afford to fall behind,” he said. He added that the firm may be past “peak modernization spend,” hinting at efficiency gains on the horizon.
Is JPMorgan a Good Stock to Buy?
According to TipRanks, JPMorgan Chase (JPM) is rated a Moderate Buy based on 19 analyst reviews. Out of those, 12 analysts call it a Buy, seven are sitting on Hold, and none are ringing the alarm with a Sell.
The average 12-month JPM price target lands at $267.44, barely above water from the last close of $264.88 — a mere 0.97% implied upside. That signals Wall Street sees JPM more as a steady performer than a rocket ship.
This muted upside reflects the mood around JPM’s stability: dependable, battle-tested, and hard to bet against… but not exactly screaming “growth stock” right now.
