Big-box retailer Target (TGT) is set to announce its Fiscal 2025 Q1 results on May 21. The stock has dropped over 26% year-to-date, pressured by weak consumer spending, inventory and supply chain issues, tariff impacts, and stiff competition in retail. Analysts expect Q1 EPS to decline roughly 17% year-over-year to $1.69, with revenues remaining nearly flat at $24.4 billion. Ahead of the earnings report, Wall Street remains cautiously optimistic on Target, with several analysts lowering their price targets.
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Among them, Joe Feldman, a five-star analyst at Telsey Advisory, trimmed his 12-month price target from $145 to $130, pointing to soft consumer spending and rising cost pressures. However, he maintained a Buy rating on the stock.
Feldman Flags Challenges and Catalysts Ahead of Q1
Feldman pointed to soft demand in discretionary and general merchandise categories. He also flagged rising costs, driven by “labor and technology” investments, select promotions, and potential tariff pressures. Additionally, data from analytics company Placer.ai showed “negative trends in 1Q25” store traffic. However, traffic improved as the quarter progressed, likely due to Easter timing and better weather.
However, Feldman believes some of the pressure could be offset by Target’s focus on its “value-offering” and stronger loyalty engagement. He pointed to progress in key areas like private-label brands, store remodels, supply chain upgrades, and digital services such as Drive Up and Target+.
Moreover, he noted that the company’s plans to partner with popular brands, such as Apple (AAPL), The Walt Disney Company (DIS), Levi Strauss & Co. (LEVI), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA), could enhance the product mix and attract more shoppers.
Although the stock has fallen about 24% over the past three months, Feldman believes the decline is “more than warranted.” His revised $130 price target reflects a reduced 15x multiple on a 2025 EPS estimate of $8.80, down from 16x previously.
Is Target Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, analysts have a Moderate Buy consensus rating on TGT stock based on 10 Buys, 16 Holds and two Sells assigned in the past three months, as indicated by the graphic below. The average TGT price target of $121.08 per share implies 24.73% upside potential.
