The Dow Jones (DJIA) has drifted into negative territory after the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announced a preliminary downward nonfarm payrolls revision of 911,000 jobs, or 0.6% of total jobs, for the 12 months ended March. That’s the largest-ever revision in terms of total jobs and higher than the consensus estimate for 700,000 fewer jobs.
Elevate Your Investing Strategy:
- Take advantage of TipRanks Premium at 50% off! Unlock powerful investing tools, advanced data, and expert analyst insights to help you invest with confidence.
The BLS provides a preliminary revision estimate to nonfarm payrolls for the 12 months ended March every August or September. The bureau publishes nonfarm payrolls data every month, although more accurate data from state tax records allows it to produce a better estimate over time. The BLS will provide a final revision figure in February 2026.
Jobs Data Revision Signals Weakness in Labor Market
During the past decade, nonfarm payrolls revisions have ranged between -0.4% and +0.3%, with an absolute average of 0.2%. Today’s revision of -0.6% is the largest downward revision since -0.7% in 2009. The period covers 10 months under former President Biden and two months under President Trump.
The revision adds to concerns that the job market is on shaky legs. Last week, the BLS reported that the U.S. added 22,000 nonfarm payrolls in August, well below the estimate of 75,000. The unemployment rate also ticked up to 4.3%, the highest level since October 2024.
Stay ahead of macro events with our up-to-the-minute Economic Calendar — filter by impact, country, and more.