There’s good news and bad news out about the biotech stock duo of Sage Therapeutics (NASDAQ:SAGE) and Biogen (NASDAQ:BIIB). The good news is that the upcoming launch of their new product Zurzuvae is still looking to come out. However, there’s some bad news that went along with that, but just how bad depends on who you ask. Both Sage and Biogen were up in the closing minutes of Friday’s trading, with Sage blasting up over 12% and Biogen up nearly 2%.
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The bad news, noted previously, was that Zurzuvae would be limited to post-partum depression applications only. That’s still kind of good news—those suffering post-partum depression need treatment too—but the narrowing of the label applications meant that the price was likely to triple over initial estimates, according to Mizuho analyst Salim Syed. Zurzuvae, meanwhile, is still on track for a release sometime in the next few months: specifically, the fourth quarter of 2023.
Now, Syed notes, Zurzuvae would be priced on par with Zulresso, an intravenous post-partum depression treatment that runs $35,000. RBC Capital analysts considered this a “major setback” for Sage. With good reason, too; the market for people with major depressive disorder—which Zurzuvae hoped to treat—is about 15 million strong. Meanwhile, post-partum depression sufferers make up about one-thirtieth of that market, at about 500,000. That was enough to get Wedbush concerned, and questioning whether or not Biogen would continue to drop cash into Sage Therapeutics to keep developing Zurzuvae’s primary component zuranolone. Especially after just buying Reata Pharma in a recent deal.
And just to put the final cherry on top, the prospects for both Sage and Biogen are wildly dissimilar. Sage Therapeutics is rated a Hold by analyst consensus, but boasts a 43.24% upside potential thanks to an average price target of $31.14. Meanwhile, Biogen, a Moderate Buy, comes with an 18.84% upside potential thanks to its average price target of $326.04.
