BigBear.ai Holdings (BBAI) will report its third-quarter earnings next month on November 10. Analysts expect the company to report a loss per share of $0.07 on revenue of $31.81 million. BBAI stock has jumped nearly 324% over the past year and is up about 66.7% so far in 2025, driven by optimism around its expanding role in artificial intelligence (AI) and government analytics. Despite the run, TipRanks’ A.I. analysis signals caution, pointing to weak financial performance from declining revenue and negative cash flows.
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For context, TipRanks’ A.I. Stock Analysis delivers automated, data-driven evaluations of stocks based on key performance metrics, giving investors a clear and concise snapshot of a stock’s potential.
AI Analyst Has a Neutral Stance on BBAI Stock
According to TipRanks’ AI Stock Analysis, BBAI stock scores a Neutral rating with a price target of $5.50, which indicates a possible downside of 25.88% from current levels. The AI score is 43 out of 100, which reflects ongoing financial challenges.
AI Analyst Highlights Positive Factors for BBAI’s Outlook
The analysis points out several positives driving BigBear.ai’s outlook. The company’s strong cash position, which stood at $390.8 million at the end of Q2, gives it enough flexibility to invest in growth initiatives and manage its debt. Its global partnerships also show steady expansion, helping bring in revenue from new regions.
Meanwhile, rising demand for AI in defense and logistics gives the company a strong chance to benefit from the fast-growing AI market. Recently, BigBear.ai teamed up with Tsecond Inc. to offer AI-powered systems for national security and defense. It also partnered with SMX (SMX) to supply advanced AI tools for UNITAS 2025, a major naval exercise led by the U.S. Navy.
These deals show the company’s growing role in providing real-time AI solutions for complex defense missions.
AI Analyst Flags Key Risks and Challenges for BBAI
Still, the analysis points to some clear risks. Revenue has declined due to contract issues, raising doubts about steady income and future profits. At the same time, the company’s negative adjusted EBITDA shows ongoing cost problems and slow progress toward profitability.
To add context, the company reported $32.5 million in revenue in Q2, missing the $40.59 million estimate, mainly due to lower activity on certain U.S. Army programs. Similarly, the company posted an adjusted loss of $0.71 per share, which reflects a huge miss from the consensus estimate of a loss of $0.06. Moreover, adjusted EBITDA stood negative at $8.5 million, reflecting softer margins and higher R&D spending.
Is BBAI a Good Stock to Buy?
Currently, Wall Street has a Moderate Buy consensus rating on BigBear.ai Holdings stock based on two Buys and two Holds. The average BBAI stock price target of $5.75 indicates about 22.51% downside risk from current levels.
