BigBear.ai (BBAI) is set to report its third-quarter 2025 earnings after the market closes on Monday, November 10. According to recent data, the options market is pricing in an expected move of 16.17%, signaling high uncertainty about the AI-driven defense and analytics firm’s results.
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BigBear.ai has a track record of dramatic price swings following earnings. In March 2025, shares plunged over 20% in a single day after missing revenue expectations. Also, the current implied move is larger than BBAI’s three-year average post-earnings move of -11.66%.
What to Expect from BBAI’s Q3 Report
Wall Street is forecasting a loss of $0.07 per share on $31.8 million in revenue for the quarter. It must be noted that in the same quarter last year, BBAI reported a Q3 loss of $0.05 per share and revenue of $41.5 million.
At the upcoming report, investors will be looking for updates on BigBear’s backlog conversion, progress in autonomy and biometrics, and signs of stability in its defense pipeline.
Also, traders are watching closely to see whether new contract wins and international expansion can offset ongoing volatility in U.S. federal contracts, particularly with the U.S. Army.
BBAI stock has soared over 74% in the past six months. While investors are optimistic about the long-term potential of AI solutions in national security, concerns over its consistent financial performance and a clear path to profitability prevail.
Is BBAI Stock a Good Buy?
Turning to Wall Street, BBAI stock has a Moderate Buy consensus rating based on two Buys and one Hold assigned in the last three months. At $5.83, the average BigBear.ai price target implies 2.82% upside potential.
