Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) stock wobbled after earnings this week, plunging by around 10% in the after-hours session before recovering nearly all of the ground lost. Indeed, it took a while for investors to digest the news and calm their nerves. On the following day, Netflix stock closed down more than 3%. The quarterly results were not too remarkable, with 232.5 million global paid subscribers in the books, up less than 1% quarter-over-quarter. With Netflix poised to complete the rollout of its paid sharing (or password crackdown) across most markets in the next quarter, questions linger as to whether “freeloaders” will bite.
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Despite the rough quarter and potentially over-extended rally, I’m staying neutral as Netflix still has the means to prove itself over the year ahead.
Password Crackdown Could Weigh on Short-Term Subscriber Growth
The environment ahead of the streamers is not a pretty one. With a recession likely in the cards, many consumers are bound to revisit their monthly subscription budgets. While Netflix has released a steady stream of intriguing content of late, including Beef and the latest season of Love is Blind, I’m not so sure that consumers are willing to keep paying up for such titles as the costs of living continue to surge. Add frustrations from the ongoing password crackdown into the equation, and Netflix may be at risk of hurting its reputation as a streaming top dog.
Indeed, Netflix’s paid sharing rollout (a friendlier term for password-sharing crackdown) does not seem to be the magic solution to the firm’s growth woes, especially as times get harder and a recession gets closer.
Personally, I believe Netflix would have found more freeloader-to-paying user conversions had it rolled out its paid sharing program back in 2021 when times were better.
These days, consumer wallets are under increasing pressure; lingering inflation and rate-induced macro headwinds are partially to blame. As such pressures mount, there’s a chance that the paid-sharing program could go wrong if it hasn’t already. In prior pieces, I noted that such a program was unlikely to turn the tides back in Netflix’s favor.
Indeed, it’s not hard to imagine that many primary Netflix account holders justified the monthly expense because it entertained them and those they shared their passwords with.
Undoubtedly, Netflix provides good value if it can entertain one’s friends or family outside the household. Entertain a crowd, and the price of admission is well worthwhile, especially if the so-called freeloaders were paying primary Netflix subscribers under the table.
Freeloader Shakedown Could Pay Off Down the Road
Now that Netflix is holding its hands out (or shaking down the freeloaders), I fear many paying Netflix subscribers have already taken great offense. Still, I believe the paid sharing program could help benefit the firm over the longer term.
Undoubtedly, many consumers are not happy about the recent sharing plan rollout. Some users have taken to Twitter to express their frustrations over location-based issues they experience on family plans. Though Netflix has cleared the air over the ability to stream while traveling, many consumers may have already protested against a seemingly “messy” password crackdown with their wallets.
For now, it seems like the password crackdown was a questionable move. Still, some think it’ll help get Netflix’s growth back on the right track.
Tim Nollen of Macquarie seems to think the sharing plan will help give its ad-based tier a jolt. As initial shock and distaste for the crackdown fade with time, I do think Nollen makes an excellent point. The paid sharing plan may have cleared the runway for its ad-based tier.
Is Netflix Stock a Buy, According to Analysts?
Turning to Wall Street, NFLX stock comes in as a Moderate Buy. Out of 32 analyst ratings, there are 17 Buys, 13 Holds, and two Sells.
The average Netflix stock price target is $367.59, implying upside potential of 13%. Analyst price targets range from a low of $230.00 per share to a high of $440.00 per share.
The Bottom Line on NFLX Stock
As long as Netflix releases must-watch content, it will be harder to stay off the platform as people keep talking about the latest hit shows.
My guess is that recently-canceled subscribers will not be gone for long and that Netflix will be able to make it through what could be a wave of recession-induced subscription cancellations.
