Blackberry (BB) Stock Is Running Away — but Can It Continue?

Is the long-awaited turnaround finally in the cards for Blackberry (BB)? The stock has been on a multiyear downtrend, unable to halt the slide since its glory years as a smartphone giant.

However, BlackBerry stock gained traction this week with shares rising 45% in the past four trading sessions. The uptick came following an announcement that the company has formed a partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS). The two will collaborate on further developing and marketing BlackBerry’s intelligent vehicle data platform, IVY.

IVY is a cloud-based software platform that assists automakers in gathering and analyzing data from vehicle sensors. BlackBerry will make use of AWS’ number-crunching power to help with IVY’s data analysis.

RBC analyst Paul Treiber believes the platform “represents a potentially new data stream for BlackBerry in the automotive vertical,” while the AWS partnership could provide a “new automotive revenue opportunity.”

The company already collects royalties in the automotive segment from licenses for its QNX embedded operating system.

However, Auto only accounts for a small chunk of BlackBerry’s business. Last year -pre COVID-19 – QNX brought in revenue of $216 million, approximately 20% of BlackBerry’s total revenue.

While Treiber notes how Blackberry’s valuation might appear to present investors with an opportunity, the analyst believes it will be a while for the platform to make its mark on the company’s struggling balance sheet.

“The magnitude of the rally in BlackBerry’s shares, in our view, reflects the stock’s discounted valuation at 2.7x FTM EV/S, well below peers at 6.1x,” the 5-star analyst noted. “BlackBerry’s discounted valuation reflects the challenges the company has faced in growing its software business over the last several quarters (e.g. -15% Y/Y software revenue and 92% dollar-based net revenue retention last quarter)… In light of the lengthy design win cycle, we believe revenue from BlackBerry IVY likely would take at least 2-3 years to ramp.”

For now, Treiber rates BB a Sector Perform (i.e. Hold) along with a $5 price target. Therefore, the analyst expects BB to hand back the recent gains to the market as the figure represents a 41% drop from current levels. (To watch Treiber’s track record, click here)

Two other analysts have recently posted BlackBerry reviews and both agree with the RBC analyst. The 2 extra Holds provide the stock with a Hold consensus rating. While the $6.08 average price target is higher than Treiber’s, it still suggests a 28% decline from the current share price of $8.52. (See BB stock analysis on TipRanks)

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Disclaimer: The opinions expressed in this article are solely those of the featured analyst. The content is intended to be used for informational purposes only. It is very important to do your own analysis before making any investment.