Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) stock has declined 7% since the company cautioned investors about a continued decline in revenue in the September quarter, which would mark the fourth consecutive quarter of lower top line for the tech giant. Wall Street’s consensus rating for Apple has transitioned from a Strong Buy ahead of the earnings release to a Moderate Buy following the fiscal third-quarter print, reflecting a cautious approach over the near term even as the long-term growth story seems attractive.
Analysts’ Sentiment Post Q3 Print
Apple exceeded analysts’ estimates for the third quarter of Fiscal 2023 (ended July 1, 2023) despite a 1.4% decline in revenue to $81.8 billion. Lower revenue from iPhone, Mac, and iPad offset the growth in the Wearables, Home, and Accessories and Services segments.
Management expects September quarter year-over-year revenue performance to be similar to the June quarter, which indicates a continued decline in the top line. In particular, the company projects iPhone and Services Q4 FY23 revenue to accelerate year-over-year compared to the growth rates experienced in the June quarter. However, Mac and iPad revenues are expected to fall by double-digits year-over-year due to tough comparisons with the prior-year quarter.
In reaction to the Q3 FY23 results, Rosenblatt analyst Barton Crockett downgraded Apple to Hold from Buy on August 4, but maintained the price target at $198. The analyst said that his downgrade followed the company’s mixed results that highlight “the slowdown phase in which Apple now sits.”
Crockett thinks that a slowdown in Apple’s U.S. business could last until a new product category takes hold. Given the uncertainty associated with the timing and success of a new launch, the analyst does not have a solid reason to favor AAPL shares, which he noted are now trading at near-peak absolute and relative multiples.
Meanwhile, UBS analyst David Vogt, who has a Hold rating on AAPL, thinks that foreign exchange trends and not demand shifts will drive any potential improvement in iPhone revenue. He argued that on a constant-currency basis, iPhone and Services growth in the September quarter will be similar to June, with no acceleration as guided by the company, which he feels is disappointing.
In contrast, Oppenheimer analyst Martin Yang raised his price target to $220 from $195 and reiterated a Buy rating on August 4. Given Apple’s long-term opportunities, Yang thinks that the company’s “stagnating” revenue growth is not a matter of concern.
While Yang agrees that concerns about Apple’s lack of growth in FY23 not justifying its elevated multiple are understandable, he contends that such fears are immature due to the company’s solid competitive position in hardware and durable high-margin revenue growth from Services.
Yang continues to believe in Apple’s ability to deliver “superior long-term profit growth from hardware and services market-share gain.”
Is Apple a Buy, Sell, or Hold?
Wall Street’s Moderate Buy consensus rating on Apple is based on 22 Buys and eight Holds. The average price target of $208.13 implies about 18% upside. Shares have risen 36% year-to-date.
Conclusion
Several analysts remain confident about the long-term growth prospects of Apple based on its impressive brand name, solid track record, and continued innovation. That said, the consensus Wall Street rating indicates a cautiously optimistic sentiment on Apple due to the expected weakness in its revenue over the near term.
