XCel Brands (XELB) Risk Analysis

As of December 31, 2025, we had outstanding warrants and options to purchase 4,129,904 shares of our common stock with a weighted average exercise price of $6.41. The holders of warrants and options will likely exercise such securities at a time when the market price of our common stock exceeds the exercise price. Therefore, exercises of warrants and options will result in a decrease in the net tangible book value per share of our common stock and such decrease could be material. The issuance of shares upon exercise of outstanding warrants and options will dilute our then-existing stockholders' percentage ownership of our company, and such dilution could be substantial. In addition, our growth strategy includes the acquisition of additional brands, and we may issue shares of our common stock as consideration for acquisitions. Sales or the potential for sale of a substantial number of such shares could adversely affect the market price of our common stock, particularly if our common stock remains thinly traded at such time. As of December 31, 2025, we had an aggregate of 191,003 shares of common stock available for grants under our 2021 Equity Incentive Plan (the "2021 Plan") to our directors, executive officers, employees, and consultants. Issuances of common stock pursuant to the exercise of stock options or other stock grants or awards which may be granted under our 2021 Plan will dilute your interest in us.

Currently the publicly traded shares of our common stock are not widely held, and do not have significant trading volume, and, therefore, may experience significant price and volume fluctuations. Although our common stock is quoted on the NASDAQ Capital Market, this does not assure that a meaningful, consistent trading market will develop or that the volatility will decline. This market volatility could reduce the market price of the common stock, regardless of our operating performance. In addition, the trading price of the common stock has been volatile over the past several years and could change significantly over short periods of time in response to actual or anticipated variations in our quarterly operating results, announcements by us, our licensees or our respective competitors, factors affecting our licensees' markets generally and/or changes in national or regional economic conditions, making it more difficult for shares of the common stock to be sold at a favorable price or at all. The market price of the common stock could also be reduced by general market price declines or market volatility in the future or future declines or volatility in the prices of stocks for companies in the trademark licensing business or companies in the industries in which our licensees compete.

Although our common stock is listed on the NASDAQ Capital Market, our common stock has historically been traded at relatively low volumes. As a result, the number of persons interested in purchasing our common stock at or near bid prices at any given time may be relatively small. This situation is attributable to a number of factors, including that we are currently a small company which is still relatively unknown to securities analysts, stock brokers, institutional investors and others in the investment community that generate or influence sales volume, and that even if we came to the attention of such persons, they tend to be risk-averse and reluctant to follow an unproven company such as ours or purchase or recommend the purchase of our shares until such time as we become more seasoned and viable. As a consequence, there may be periods of several days or more when trading activity in our shares is minimal, as compared to a seasoned issuer which has a large and steady volume of trading activity that will generally support continuous sales without an adverse effect on share price. We cannot provide any assurance that a broader or more active public trading market for our common stock will develop or be sustained, or that trading levels will be sustained.

Rule 3a51-1 of the Exchange Act establishes the definition of a "penny stock," for purposes relevant to us, as any equity security that has a minimum bid price of less than $5.00 per share, subject to a limited number of exceptions, including for having securities registered on certain national securities exchanges. If our common stock were delisted from the NASDAQ, market liquidity for our common stock could be severely and adversely affected. For any transaction involving a penny stock, unless exempt, the penny stock rules require that a broker or dealer approve a person's account for transactions in penny stocks and the broker or dealer receive from the investor a written agreement to the transaction setting forth the identity and quantity of the penny stock to be purchased. In order to approve a person's account for transactions in penny stocks, the broker or dealer must obtain financial information and investment experience and objectives of the person and make a reasonable determination that the transactions in penny stocks are suitable for that person and that that person has sufficient knowledge and experience in financial matters to be capable of evaluating the risks of transactions in penny stocks. The broker or dealer must also deliver, prior to any transaction in a penny stock, a disclosure schedule prepared by the SEC relating to the penny stock market, which, in highlight form, sets forth: - the basis on which the broker or dealer made the suitability determination; and - that the broker or dealer received a signed, written agreement from the investor prior to the transaction. Disclosure also has to be made about the risks of investing in penny stocks in both public offerings and in secondary trading and commission payable to both the broker-dealer and the registered representative, current quotations for the securities and the rights and remedies available to an investor in cases of fraud in penny stock transactions. Finally, monthly statements have to be sent disclosing recent price information for the penny stock held in the account and information on the limited market in penny stocks. Because of these regulations, broker-dealers may not wish to engage in the above-referenced necessary paperwork and disclosures and/or may encounter difficulties in their attempt to sell shares of our common stock, which may affect the ability of selling stockholders or other holders to sell their shares in any secondary market and have the effect of reducing the level of trading activity in any secondary market. These additional sales practices and disclosure requirements could impede the sale of our common stock even if and when our common stock becomes listed on the NASDAQ Capital Market. In addition, the liquidity for our common stock may decrease, with a corresponding decrease in the price of our common stock. No assurance can be given that our stock will not be subject to these "penny stock" rules in the future. Investors should be aware that, according to Commission Release No. 34-29093, the market for "penny stocks" has suffered in recent years from patterns of fraud and abuse. Such patterns include: (1) control of the market for the security by one or a few broker-dealers that are often related to the promoter or issuer; (2) manipulation of prices through prearranged matching of purchases and sales and false and misleading press releases; (3) boiler room practices involving high-pressure sales tactics and unrealistic price projections by inexperienced sales persons; (4) excessive and undisclosed bid-ask differential and markups by selling broker-dealers; and (5) the wholesale dumping of the same securities by promoters and broker-dealers after prices have been manipulated to a desired level, along with the resulting inevitable collapse of those prices and with consequent investor losses. The occurrence of these patterns or practices could increase the future volatility of our share price.

On April 16, 2024, we received a letter from the Listing Qualifications Department of The Nasdaq Stock Market ("Nasdaq") notifying us that the minimum bid price per share for our common stock fell below $1.00 for a period of 30 consecutive business days. Therefore, the Company did not meet the minimum bid price requirement set forth in the Nasdaq listing rules. On October 15, 2024, Nasdaq notified us that we would be provided an additional 180 days, or until April 14, 2025, to regain compliance with the minimum bid price requirement. In order to assist in bringing us in compliance with the minimum bid price requirement, we effected a one-for-ten (1:10) reverse stock split of our outstanding shares of common stock effective March 24, 2025. On April 8, 2025, we received a letter from the Listing Qualifications Department of Nasdaq confirming that we had regained compliance with the applicable listing rules, and this matter was closed. However, there can be no assurance that the minimum bid price for our common stock will continue to stay above $1.00 per share in the future. If our shares of common stock were to lose their status on Nasdaq, we believe that they would likely be eligible to be quoted on the inter-dealer electronic quotation and trading system operated by OTC Markets Group Inc., commonly referred to as the Pink Open Market and we may also qualify to be traded on their OTCQB market (The Venture Market). These markets are generally not considered to be as efficient as, and not as broad as, Nasdaq. Selling our shares on these markets could be more difficult because smaller quantities of shares would likely be bought and sold, and transactions could be delayed. In addition, in the event our shares are delisted, broker-dealers have certain regulatory burdens imposed upon them, which may discourage broker-dealers from effecting transactions in our common stock or even holding our common stock, further limiting the liquidity of our common stock. These factors could result in lower prices and larger spreads in the bid and ask prices for our common stock.

Pursuant to voting agreements, certain shareholders agreed to appoint a person designated by our board of directors as their collective irrevocable proxy and attorney-in-fact with respect to the shares of the common stock received by them. The proxy holder will vote in favor of matters recommended or approved by the board of directors. The board of directors has designated Robert W. D'Loren as proxy. Also, pursuant to separate voting agreements, certain other stockholders have agreed to appoint Mr. D'Loren as their respective irrevocable proxy and attorney-in-fact with respect to the shares of the common stock issued to them by us. The proxy holder shall vote in favor of matters recommended or approved by the board of directors. The combined voting power of the common stock ownership of our directors and executive officers was approximately 30% of our voting securities as of March 3, 2026. As a result, our management through such stock ownership will exercise significant influence over all matters requiring shareholder approval, including the election of our directors and approval of significant corporate transactions. This concentration of ownership in management may also have the effect of delaying or preventing a change in control of us that may be otherwise viewed as beneficial by stockholders other than management. There is also a risk that our existing management and a limited number of stockholders may have interests which are different from certain stockholders and that they will pursue an agenda which is beneficial to themselves at the expense of other stockholders.