Vermilion Energy AI Stock Analysis
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Vermilion Energy (VET) AI Stock Analysis
Vermilion Energy
(TSX:VET)
The score is held back primarily by weak profitability (large TTM net loss and negative returns) and a bearish technical setup (price below all key moving averages with negative MACD). These are partially offset by resilient cash generation (positive operating cash flow and free cash flow) and a moderate dividend yield, but valuation remains constrained by loss-making earnings.
Vermilion Energy (VET) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
- Market Cap
- CAD 1.63B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.52%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.08M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- -4.8
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.22
- Revenue Growth
- 5.87%
- EPS Growth
- -108.42%
- Country
- Canada
- Employees
- 636
- Sector
- Energy
- Sector Strength
- 65
- Industry
- Oil & Gas Exploration & Production
Vermilion Energy Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Vermilion Energy Inc., engages in petroleum and natural gas, focuses on the acquisition, exploration, development, and optimization of producing properties in North America, Europe, and Australia. Its properties are located in the West Pembina region...
How the Company Makes Money
Vermilion primarily makes money by producing hydrocarbons (crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids) and selling those volumes into commodity markets. Revenue is recognized based on delivered volumes and realized prices, which are driven by be...
Vermilion Energy Earnings Call Summary
The call conveyed a predominantly positive tone driven by production outperformance, strong cash flow generation, meaningful debt reduction, substantial unit cost improvements and improved capital efficiency. Strategic actions (German acquisitions and acreage additions, asset sales to reduce debt, and inventory of liquids-rich drilling) further support the outlook. Near-term headwinds included cyclone-related downtime in Australia, realized hedge losses of $15 million and exposure to weak AECO pricing, but these were presented as manageable and in many cases temporary or timing-related. Overall, the highlights outweigh the lowlights and management signaled confidence in delivering improved free cash flow and continued deleveraging.
Q1-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Guidance highlights included Q2 2026 production of 123,000–125,000 BOE/d (Q1 was 125,600 BOE/d, Canada 99,700 BOE/d, International 25,900 BOE/d), with liquids weighting rising from ~28% in Q1 to ~31% in Q2; Vermilion said it is trending to the upper end of full‑year guidance without increasing the capital budget and reiterated a $1.0B net‑debt target (net debt $1.29B as of Mar 31, down $50M this quarter and $770M YoY). Financial guidance/metrics included $232M of Q1 funds from operations, $135M of E&D capex, $98M of free cash flow, a realized hedge loss of $15M in Q1, and management’s update that 2026 excess free cash flow (EFCF) is now expected to be roughly double the original 2026 budget projection. Operational and cost guidance noted continued Montney per‑well cost improvement to $8.2M (down $300k), ongoing 3‑rig Deep Basin activity (Q1: 10 wells drilled, 14 completed, 18 brought on), and a bullish European gas price outlook (~$16/MMBtu realized in Q1 and ~ $20/MMBtu expected on average over the next four quarters, with Q2 > $20/MMBtu).
Vermilion Energy Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Operating trends and cash flow are the main supports (TTM revenue up ~10%, improved gross/EBIT margins, operating cash flow ~$805M and positive FCF ~$221M). However, profitability remains a major drag with a sizable TTM net loss (-$484M; net margin ~-24%) and a history of cyclical, volatile results; equity has also declined and ROE remains negative.
Income Statement
41NeutralBalance Sheet
56NeutralCash Flow
63Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 2.05B | 1.77B | 2.07B | 1.93B | 3.72B | 2.23B |
| Gross Profit | 719.42M | 291.13M | 1.12B | 359.39M | 2.59B | 1.32B |
| EBITDA | 847.20M | 551.32M | 835.80M | 597.74M | 2.49B | 2.07B |
| Net Income | -483.59M | -653.60M | -46.74M | -237.59M | 1.31B | 1.15B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 5.73B | 5.34B | 6.12B | 6.24B | 6.99B | 5.91B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 44.13M | 19.09M | 131.73M | 141.46M | 13.84M | 6.03M |
| Total Debt | 1.23B | 1.30B | 1.02B | 947.02M | 1.15B | 1.73B |
| Total Liabilities | 3.66B | 3.12B | 3.30B | 3.20B | 3.59B | 3.84B |
| Stockholders Equity | 2.07B | 2.22B | 2.81B | 3.03B | 3.40B | 2.07B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 221.05M | 326.41M | 332.04M | 292.06M | 1.26B | 459.66M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 804.93M | 943.66M | 967.75M | 1.02B | 1.81B | 834.45M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -551.37M | -1.24B | -634.87M | -576.43M | -1.06B | -469.70M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -254.74M | 180.90M | -344.08M | -320.34M | -748.37M | -363.45M |
Vermilion Energy Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:VET, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 15.18 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 17.57, below the 50-day MA of 17.38, and below the 200-day MA of 16.02, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.75 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 13.54 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:VET.
Vermilion Energy Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
TSE:HWX86.1Outperform
TSE:PXT71Outperform
TSE:KEL61Neutral
TSE:BIR60Neutral
TSE:CJ58Neutral- TSE:VET50Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:HWX | 86Outperform | CAD 2.74B | 15.24 | 24.24% | 3.87% | 12.71% | 0.77% |
| TSE:PXT | 71Outperform | CAD 1.89B | 2.37 | 27.68% | 7.44% | 54.87% | 433.57% |
| Sector * | 65Neutral | $15.17B | 7.61 | 4.09% | 5.20% | 3.87% | -62.32% |
| TSE:KEL | 61Neutral | CAD 2.05B | 36.75 | 4.95% | ― | 30.30% | -24.69% |
| TSE:BIR | 60Neutral | CAD 1.81B | 19.70 | 4.22% | 1.77% | 10.48% | 23.40% |
| TSE:CJ | 58Neutral | CAD 1.96B | 19.28 | 6.96% | 6.29% | 39.03% | 25.09% |
| TSE:VET | 50Neutral | CAD 2.22B | -4.80 | -22.77% | 3.52% | 5.87% | -108.42% |
* Energy Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TSE:VET | Vermilion Energy | 15.18 | 3.39 | 28.71% | |
| TSE:BIR | Birchcliff Energy Ltd. | 6.78 | -0.05 | -0.70% | |
| TSE:HWX | Headwater Exploration Inc. | 11.89 | 4.33 | 57.32% | |
| TSE:KEL | Kelt Exploration | 10.35 | 2.65 | 34.42% | |
| TSE:PXT | Parex | 20.70 | 3.71 | 21.83% | |
| TSE:CJ | Cardinal Energy | 11.45 | 3.43 | 42.86% |
Vermilion Energy Corporate Events
Vermilion Energy Declares $0.135 CDN Cash Dividend
PositiveVermilion Energy is a global natural gas producer with operations focused on liquids-rich Canadian gas, conventional European gas, and low-decline oil assets. Its portfolio is designed to support per-share value creation through long-life resources a...
Vermilion Reports Q3 Cash Generation and Approves 2027 Budget
PositiveVermilion averaged 117,349 boe/d in the third quarter, with production affected by planned maintenance in Ireland, Germany and Canada. The company generated $237 million in fund flows from operations and more than $90 million in free cash flow, enabl...
Vermilion Energy Sets November 4 Date for Q3 2026 Results and Investor Call
NeutralVermilion Energy Inc. will release its unaudited third quarter 2026 operating and condensed financial results on November 4, 2026, before North American markets open, with full interim financial statements and management discussion and analysis to be...
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Nov 07, 2026