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Keel Infrastructure
(TSX:KEEL)
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Rating:52Neutral
Price Target:
C$7.50
▲(54.64% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:06/02/26
The score is held down primarily by weak financial performance (declining revenue, large losses, and deep cash burn with rising leverage). Technicals are a key offset, showing strong upward momentum, while the earnings call adds moderate support due to strong liquidity and clear lease-signing milestones but with meaningful execution and near-term earnings headwinds. Valuation remains constrained by negative earnings.
Positive Factors
HPC/AI Data-Center Pivot
The shift from Bitcoin mining toward HPC/AI infrastructure targets a structurally stronger demand market. Progress across three sites, scarce power availability and competing tenant interest could support longer-term contracted revenue once projects are commissioned.
Negative Factors
Severe Profitability Deterioration
The sharp revenue contraction and deeply negative margins show that the current operating model is not yet economically viable. Until HPC/AI projects begin contributing revenue, sustained losses may constrain reinvestment capacity and increase dependence on external capital.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
HPC/AI Data-Center Pivot
The shift from Bitcoin mining toward HPC/AI infrastructure targets a structurally stronger demand market. Progress across three sites, scarce power availability and competing tenant interest could support longer-term contracted revenue once projects are commissioned.
Read all positive factors
Keel Infrastructure (KEEL) vs. iShares MSCI Canada ETF (EWC)
Market Cap
C$2.83B
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)4.28M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)2.43
Revenue Growth-23.89%
EPS Growth-331.06%
CountryCA
Employees274
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustryInformation Technology Services
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.75
Shares Outstanding617,573,240
10 Day Avg. Volume2,796,651
30 Day Avg. Volume4,284,343
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio-0.02
Price to Book (P/B)2.31
Price to Sales (P/S)5.65
P/FCF Ratio-3.97
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
C$9.31Price Target Upside92.01% Upside
Rating ConsensusStrong Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.34
Revenue Forecast (FY)C$121.17M
Keel Infrastructure Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Keel Infrastructure Corp. operates as a digital infrastructure and energy company that develops and owns data centers and energy infrastructure for computing workloads, including AI in North America. The company was founded in 2017 and is headquar...
How the Company Makes Money
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Keel Infrastructure Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 10, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:May 17, 2027
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call emphasized strong operational progress toward repositioning the company as an HPC/AI-focused regional data center developer: permitting advances, material supply deliveries, decommissioning of Bitcoin operations, expanded liquidity and a successful convertible offering were highlighted. Those positives are counterbalanced by near-term financial pain driven by the exit from Bitcoin mining, a large Q2 operating loss, negative adjusted EBITDA, accelerated depreciation charges, and elevated G&A as the company scales. Permitting timing for Panther Creek and pipeline sites and broader macro/capital markets remain watchpoints. Overall, management presents execution momentum and adequate funding to reach commercial milestones despite meaningful near-term earnings and cash-flow headwinds.Positive Updates
Permitting and Site Progress Across Priority Portfolio
Management advanced permitting across all three priority sites (Moses Lake, Sharon, Panther Creek) with clear visibility on permit completion; Moses Lake progressing to go-vertical permitting expected to wrap later this quarter, Sharon secured full zoning and land development approval, and Panther Creek secured zoning and conditional land development approval with final environmental permits submitted.
Negative Updates
Sharp Revenue Decline
Q2 2026 revenue was $30 million versus $61 million in Q2 2025, a decline of approximately 51%, driven largely by lower average Bitcoin price and shutdown of Moses Lake cryptocurrency mining operations.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Permitting and Site Progress Across Priority Portfolio
Management advanced permitting across all three priority sites (Moses Lake, Sharon, Panther Creek) with clear visibility on permit completion; Moses Lake progressing to go-vertical permitting expected to wrap later this quarter, Sharon secured full zoning and land development approval, and Panther Creek secured zoning and conditional land development approval with final environmental permits submitted.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management guided that permitting and leasing have advanced across all three priority sites with Moses Lake expected to be the first fully permitted and commissioned site in 2027 (focused on 18 MW; first Vertiv modules delivered), Sharon fully zoned in April and being evaluated for a potential single 110‑MW phase, and Panther Creek holding 350 MW of secured PPL capacity with potential expansion to 500+ MW and an earliest RFS in 2027; Sherbrooke would consolidate three legacy Bitcoin PPAs into a single 96‑MW HPC/AI PPA and the company is working to convert nearly 2 GW of Pennsylvania expansion capacity into signed ESAs through 2030 with a fuller update targeted for Dec/Jan. Financially, Keel reported Q2 revenue of $30M (vs. $61M prior year), an operating loss of $141M (including $63M accelerated depreciation), a loss from continuing operations of $64M (‑$0.11/share), adjusted EBITDA of negative $24M, and said cash SG&A is tracking ~$100M for the year (≈$23M/quarter YTD). Liquidity stood at $819M (up from $533M in May) following a $458M convertible offering (upsized from $350M), the company sold 1,085 BTC for $75M and held 1,861 BTC as of Aug 7 with intent to liquidate BTC in 2026, and management said current liquidity fully supports site development through lease signing and funds cash SG&A through 2028.Keel Infrastructure Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
18
Very Negative
Balance Sheet
35
Negative
Cash Flow
14
Very Negative
| Breakdown | TTM | Mar 2026 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 152.05M | 229.28M | 192.88M | 146.37M | 142.43M | 169.49M |
| Gross Profit | -125.94M | -18.90M | -32.36M | -21.50M | 10.52M | 111.12M |
| EBITDA | -116.00M | 24.40M | 74.35M | -17.41M | -106.42M | 70.53M |
| Net Income | -430.17M | -284.54M | -54.06M | -108.92M | -175.64M | 22.13M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.42B | 1.30B | 667.62M | 378.73M | 343.10M | 542.59M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 715.52M | 573.46M | 146.84M | 84.04M | 35.44M | 191.63M |
| Total Debt | 1.04B | 683.78M | 23.41M | 19.87M | 65.01M | 84.74M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.09B | 735.97M | 59.62M | 83.96M | 87.70M | 183.58M |
| Stockholders Equity | 328.72M | 560.38M | 608.00M | 294.76M | 255.40M | 359.01M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | -358.14M | -326.89M | -480.42M | -177.02M | -158.73M | -230.43M |
| Operating Cash Flow | -251.10M | -226.59M | -140.56M | -105.71M | 36.25M | -37.17M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -11.18M | 103.74M | -178.39M | 70.97M | -155.01M | -215.15M |
| Financing Cash Flow | 920.73M | 694.28M | 294.46M | 87.88M | 24.01M | 371.99M |
Keel Infrastructure Technical Analysis
Negative
4.85
Price Trends
5.27
Negative
6.09
Negative
4.74
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.14
Negative
47.22
Neutral
44.02
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TSE:KEEL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 4.85 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 4.68, below the 50-day MA of 5.27, and above the 200-day MA of 4.74, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.14 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.22 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 44.02 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TSE:KEEL.
Keel Infrastructure Risk Analysis
Keel Infrastructure disclosed 76 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Keel Infrastructure reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Keel Infrastructure Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | C$15.02B | -16.87 | -39.50% | ― | 128.38% | -448.69% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
54 Neutral | C$107.99M | -7.80 | -13.93% | ― | -13.15% | 24.49% | |
52 Neutral | C$2.83B | -4.55 | -89.64% | ― | -23.89% | -331.06% | |
49 Neutral | C$73.12M | -438.46 | 0.28% | ― | -37.84% | ― | |
41 Neutral | C$11.75M | 133.33 | -27.81% | ― | 6.48% | ― |
* Technology Sector Average
TSE:KEEL
Keel Infrastructure
4.74
0.33
7.48%
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Neptune Digital Assets
0.57
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-57.14%
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Hut 8
125.56
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143.43%
TSE:DMGI
DMG Blockchain Solutions
0.50
0.13
33.78%
TSE:BTCW
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0.04
-0.10
-71.43%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.