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Tandy Leather Factory (TLF) AI Stock Analysis

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TLF

Tandy Leather Factory

(NASDAQ:TLF)

Select Model
Rating:42Neutral
Price Target:$2.00▼(-9.91% Downside)
Action:reiterated
Date:11/11/26

The score is primarily weighed down by weak financial performance (near-breakeven profitability, higher leverage, and negative/declining free cash flow) and bearish technical signals (price below key moving averages with negative MACD). Valuation further pressures the score due to the very high P/E and no dividend yield provided.

Positive Factors
Diversified specialty retail modelTLF serves hobbyists, artisans, and small businesses through both stores and e-commerce, while selling a broad range of leather, tools, hardware, chemicals, and project supplies. This diversified product and channel model can support repeat purchases and reduce reliance on a single offering.
Negative Factors
Near-breakeven profitabilityProfitability has deteriorated sharply from the unusually strong 2025 level to near breakeven, while operating profit is essentially flat to slightly negative. Such thin earnings leave little room for cost increases or weaker demand and make future results more volatile.

Tandy Leather Factory (TLF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

-10%-5%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%TLF+4.18%SPY+14.28%Dec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
Market Cap
$18.19M
Dividend Yield
―
Average Volume (3M)
20.64K
Price to Earnings (P/E)
111.0
Beta (1Y)
0.59
Revenue Growth
5.26%
EPS Growth
-98.50%
Country
US
Employees
470
Sector
Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength
61
Industry
Specialty Retail

Tandy Leather Factory Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tandy Leather Factory, Inc., along with its subsidiaries, operates as a specialized retail provider of leather and various leathercrafting supplies. The company's operations extend across North America and into Spain. It furnishes customers with a br...

How the Company Makes Money

TLF makes money primarily by selling leathercraft products to customers through retail stores and online commerce. Its key revenue streams come from: (1) leather and leather components (e.g., hides, sides, panels, and cut pieces), which are foundatio...

Tandy Leather Factory Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Mar 22, 2024(Q4-2023)|% Change Since:-10.91%|Next Earnings Date:May 17, 2022
Earnings Call SentimentNeutral

The earnings call presented a balanced view with significant improvements in operating income, adjusted EBITDA, and gross margin, coupled with strategic new store openings. However, these positives were offset by a decline in overall sales and lower-than-expected interest income. The company showed strong financial discipline and strategic planning, suggesting cautious optimism for future growth.

Positive Updates

Increase in Operating Income
Operating income rose to $4.4 million, marking a $3 million increase over the previous year.

Negative Updates

Decline in Sales
Sales decreased by 5.1% to $76.2 million, attributed to weak consumer demand and store closures.

Company Guidance

In the Tandy Leather Factory (TLF) Q4 2023 earnings call, the company provided guidance focused on maintaining profitability and cash flow amid a challenging market environment. For the year, TLF reported a 5.1% decline in sales totaling $76.2 million, yet achieved a $4.4 million operating income, up $3 million from the previous year. Gross margin improved by 130 basis points, while operating expenses dropped by 9.7%. Adjusted EBITDA rose to $6.5 million, a $2.5 million increase year-over-year. The company ended the year with $12.2 million in cash, a $4 million increase, and maintained a debt-free balance sheet. Looking to 2024, Tandy plans to open 3 to 5 new stores, leveraging a new retail model that focuses on a smaller footprint and expert customer service. Additionally, the company is exploring the sale of its Fort Worth property to potentially unlock more value and excess cash, which could be returned to shareholders.

Tandy Leather Factory Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financial performance is weak overall. Income statement quality has deteriorated with TTM net margin near breakeven (~0.2%) versus much stronger profitability in 2025, suggesting volatile earnings. The balance sheet remains supported by equity but has become riskier as leverage rose (debt-to-equity ~0.60 TTM vs ~0.17–0.19 in 2023–2024). Cash flow is the biggest concern: operating cash flow is positive but free cash flow is slightly negative and down sharply (~-95% TTM), indicating limited flexibility.

Income Statement

48Neutral

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

34Negative
Financial statement breakdown
BreakdownTTMDec 2025Dec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Mar 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue78.47M76.32M74.39M76.23M80.33M82.66M
Gross Profit45.65M43.54M41.80M45.16M46.50M47.00M
EBITDA5.49M18.46M5.82M9.17M6.07M7.86M
Net Income174.00K9.10M827.00K3.77M1.23M1.35M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets81.93M86.63M74.92M72.14M68.58M73.08M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments5.73M16.09M13.27M12.16M7.97M10.15M
Total Debt28.48M27.38M10.77M9.43M10.37M11.66M
Total Liabilities34.41M34.04M17.77M15.79M17.12M21.58M
Stockholders Equity47.52M52.59M57.15M56.35M51.46M51.50M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow-106.00K-8.09M1.56M3.96M519.00K2.71M
Operating Cash Flow2.19M-556.00K4.55M4.54M1.15M3.72M
Investing Cash Flow-2.30M17.36M-2.98M-576.00K-625.00K-1.00M
Financing Cash Flow-6.08M-14.11M-1,000-26.00K-2.17M-2.78M

Tandy Leather Factory Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral
Last Price2.22

Price Trends

50DMA2.44Negative
100DMA2.44Negative
200DMA2.39Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-0.08Positive
RSI44.94Neutral
STOCH58.73Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TLF, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 2.22 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 2.25, below the 50-day MA of 2.44, and below the 200-day MA of 2.39, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 44.94 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 58.73 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for TLF.

Tandy Leather Factory Risk Analysis

Tandy Leather Factory disclosed 20 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Tandy Leather Factory reported the most risks in the "Production" category.

Higher RiskSector Avg.Lower RiskFinance & CorporateTech & InnovationLegal & RegulatoryProductionAbility to SellMacro & Political
Production - Risks related to the company’s ability to manufacture goods and services

Latest Risks Added

3 New Risks
1.Increased Expenses from Renting Headquarters Facilities and Flagship Store.Q2, 2026
2.Recent Changes to U.S. Tariff RatesQ2, 2026
3.Increased Expenses from Renting Headquarters Facilities and Flagship Store.Q1, 2026

Tandy Leather Factory Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

TLF against its peers
NameOverall RatingMarket CapP/E RatioROEDividend YieldRevenue GrowthEPS Growth
Sector *61Neutral$18.38B12.79-2.54%3.03%1.52%-15.83%
MOGUMOGU49Neutral$13.73M52.650.35%―-9.81%―
YJYJ42Neutral$6.01M-0.29-13.24%―――
TLFTLF42Neutral$17.04M111.000.36%―5.26%-98.50%
NHTCNHTC39Underperform$6.28M-5.68-8.13%74.91%-16.53%-1330.39%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

-50%0%50%100%150%TLFNHTCMOGUYJDec '25Jan '26Feb '26Mar '26Apr '26May '26Jun '26Jul '26Aug '26Sep '26Oct '26Nov '26
TLF and its peers over the selected period
Show on chartTickerCompany NamePriceChange% Change
TLFTandy Leather Factory, Inc.2.220.041.69%
NHTCNatural Health Trends Corp0.80-2.36-74.68%
MOGUMogu Inc1.90-0.86-31.34%
YJYunji Inc1.17-0.53-31.18%
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Nov 11, 2026