Tokai Carbon (TKCBY) AI Stock Analysis

Tokai Carbon

(Other OTC:TKCBY)

Select Model

Rating:60Neutral

Price Target:$51.00▲(4.25% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:09/30/26

Tokai Carbon earns a moderate score. Fundamentals are the largest driver and are only average: the company has returned to profitability after a large 2024 loss and generates dependable operating cash flow, but margins are thin, returns on equity are low, capex absorbs most cash flow, and leverage leaves limited cushion against another cyclical downturn. Supporting the score is strong price momentum, with shares trading well above all major moving averages on positive MACD, though the advance now looks extended. Valuation is the main offset, as a 25.2x P/E and a modest 1.38% yield leave little room for disappointment in a cyclical business that is still early in its earnings recovery.

Positive Factors

Diversified carbon and graphite applicationsTokai Carbon serves multiple industrial and high-technology applications through graphite electrodes, engineered carbon components, carbon black, and related materials. This breadth diversifies demand across steel, chemicals, electronics, and automotive customers, supporting a broader base for recovery and long-term growth.

Negative Factors

Recent revenue contractionThe reported negative revenue-growth rate indicates that Tokai Carbon’s recent top-line momentum has weakened rather than expanded consistently. Slower sales can reduce operating leverage, limit margin recovery, and make it harder for the company to sustain improvement across its industrial end markets.

Tokai Carbon (TKCBY) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $2.56B
Dividend Yield: 1.60%
Average Volume (3M): ―
Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.8
Beta (1Y): 0.90
Revenue Growth: -2.72%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: US
Employees: 4,436
Sector: Basic Materials
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Chemicals - Specialty

Tokai Carbon Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Established in Tokyo, Japan, in 1918 as Tokai Electrode Mfg. Co. Ltd., and rebranded as Tokai Carbon Co., Ltd. in 1975, the company is a prominent manufacturer and supplier of a comprehensive range of carbon-related products and services. Its offerin...

How the Company Makes Money

Tokai Carbon primarily makes money by manufacturing and selling carbon and graphite materials and related products to industrial customers. Key revenue streams include: (1) Graphite electrodes: Tokai Carbon sells large graphite electrodes used by ste...

Tokai Carbon Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Financials reflect a recovering but cyclical profile. The income statement (52) shows a rebound to ¥339B revenue and ¥21B net income after a heavy ¥57B loss in 2024, though margins remain modest (net ~6%) and earnings historically volatile. The balance sheet (58) is adequate, with ¥319B equity and a manageable 0.68 debt-to-equity ratio, but ¥217B of debt and only 6.6% ROE limit flexibility. Cash flow (61) is the clear strength, with operating cash flow of ¥59B and positive generation even during the loss year, though heavy capex keeps free cash flow at just ¥15B and inconsistent year to year.

Income Statement

52Neutral

Balance Sheet

58Neutral

Cash Flow

61Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	344.25B	338.62B	350.11B	363.95B	340.37B	258.87B
Gross Profit	81.24B	78.48B	80.64B	81.49B	94.05B	70.73B
EBITDA	58.53B	61.28B	-3.95B	80.78B	78.14B	54.27B
Net Income	19.08B	21.05B	-56.74B	25.47B	22.42B	16.11B
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	678.79B	664.49B	640.75B	640.00B	576.47B	512.50B
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	85.83B	90.22B	92.21B	77.47B	70.91B	78.86B
Total Debt	215.76B	216.72B	199.11B	166.64B	171.45B	168.25B
Total Liabilities	324.93B	311.40B	315.60B	279.90B	275.60B	255.94B
Stockholders Equity	319.35B	318.58B	289.56B	324.49B	268.82B	229.21B
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	0	15.49B	9.36B	12.46B	-4.01B	8.54B
Operating Cash Flow	0	58.58B	64.47B	62.07B	41.20B	38.07B
Investing Cash Flow	0	-53.53B	-70.78B	-47.63B	-49.90B	-35.28B
Financing Cash Flow	0	-8.06B	9.41B	-14.51B	-10.63B	1.21B

Tokai Carbon Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price48.92

Price Trends

50DMA51.58Negative

100DMA46.94Positive

200DMA38.26Positive

Market Momentum

MACD-1.31Positive

RSI40.67Neutral

STOCH65.80Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For TKCBY, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 48.92 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 53.07, below the 50-day MA of 51.58, and above the 200-day MA of 38.26, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -1.31 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 40.67 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 65.80 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for TKCBY.

Tokai Carbon Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

TKCBY against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
CBT	66Neutral	$3.84B	20.62	12.07%	2.48%	-4.74%	-53.83%
Sector *	61Neutral	$10.43B	7.12	-0.05%	2.87%	2.86%	-36.73%
TKCBY	60Neutral	$2.49B	21.77	6.03%	1.60%	-2.72%	―
NGVT	58Neutral	$2.55B	48.26	85.17%	―	-12.42%	―
KOP	54Neutral	$784.83M	-8.98	-16.91%	0.84%	-4.98%	-710.42%
MTX	46Neutral	$1.95B	-28.78	-4.12%	0.77%	4.76%	-19991.67%
OEC	46Neutral	$316.53M	-3.24	-24.91%	1.48%	-1.02%	-734.16%

* Basic Materials Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TKCBY and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TKCBY	Tokai Carbon	48.92	21.99	81.69%
CBT	Cabot Corp	74.43	14.65	24.50%
KOP	Koppers	41.50	13.52	48.31%
MTX	Minerals Technologies	62.74	7.40	13.37%
OEC	Orion S.A.	5.60	0.77	16.01%
NGVT	Ingevity	74.32	21.74	41.35%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Sep 30, 2026

Tokai Carbon AI Stock Analysis