Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) AI Stock Analysis

Tabcorp Holdings Limited

(Other OTC:TABCF)

Rating:―N/A

Action:N/A

Date:―

No summary available

Positive Factors

Improving profitability and returnsFY26 showed stronger operating economics through EBITDA and EBIT growth, margin expansion, lower adjusted OpEx, and higher ROIC. If sustained, these gains should improve earnings resilience and show that operational initiatives are converting revenue into more durable returns.

Negative Factors

Volatile revenue and thin earnings baseRevenue and earnings have not followed a stable growth path: FY26 revenue declined materially after earlier volatility, while profitability remains modest relative to revenue. This leaves earnings sensitive to renewed revenue pressure and makes sustained returns less dependable over the next several quarters.

Tabcorp Holdings Limited (TABCF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $1.35B
Dividend Yield: 3.45%
Average Volume (3M): 587
Price to Earnings (P/E): 44.1
Beta (1Y): 0.26
Revenue Growth: 4.83%
EPS Growth: 31.43%
Country: US
Employees: 5,100
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Gambling, Resorts & Casinos

Tabcorp Holdings Limited Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Tabcorp Holdings Limited, together with its subsidiaries, provides gambling, and entertainment and integrity services in Australia. It operates through Wagering and Media, and Integrity Services segments. The Wagering and Media segment offers totalis...

Tabcorp Holdings Limited Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Aug 24, 2026(Q4-2026)|% Change Since:-2.19%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 17, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented meaningful operational and financial progress: double-digit EBITDA and EBIT growth, strong cash conversion, improved ROIC, reduced leverage, strategic wins (National Tote, Sky rights, BetMakers agreement) and tangible retail momentum (Phase 1 benefits, strong World Cup performance). These positives are balanced against regulatory overhang (AUSTRAC), modest top-line growth, continued decline in pari-mutuel turnover, near-term higher CapEx (EBTs) and integration/approval risk for the BetMakers acquisition. Management expects continued cost discipline and execution on strategic initiatives, but some benefits (National Tote, full terminal returns, BetMakers synergies) will take time to fully realize.

Positive Updates

Group Revenue and Profit Growth

Group revenue grew 0.8% to $2.64 billion; variable contribution increased 4%. EBITDA increased 10.3% to $432 million and EBIT rose 15.9% to $219 million. NPAT before significant items grew 44% to $71.1 million.

Negative Updates

Regulatory Investigation (AUSTRAC)

Tabcorp remains subject to an ongoing AUSTRAC investigation; management reports no update since prior disclosure and continues a multi-year compliance uplift—this remains a material regulatory overhang.

Company Guidance

Management guided FY'27 wagering turnover to be similar to FY'26 (noting the FIFA World Cup drove roughly 30–50 basis points of FY'26 turnover with about half the tournament falling in FY'27), flagged a step‑up in capital expenditure to up to $160m in FY'27 (including about $65m on new EBTs as part of a ~$140m terminals program expected to deliver at least a 25% return and ~ $13m of D&A), reiterated OpEx growth of 3.0–3.5% (about half driven by regulatory/risk uplift and loyalty investment) while remaining vigilant on costs, and said they expect to build on Phase 1 retail benefits (A$22m EBITDA realized in FY'26) and Victorian license gains (A$22m variable contribution / A$12m EBITDA); FY'26 anchors include group revenue $2.64bn, EBITDA $432m, ROIC 12% (up 240bps), leverage 1.2x (pro‑forma 1.6x including BetMakers), liquidity ~$1.2bn and underlying cash conversion guidance of 90–100% (98% achieved).

Tabcorp Holdings Limited Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

TABCF against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
AU:ALL	84Outperform	AUD 38.02B	26.94	23.15%	1.54%	-1.22%	10.79%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
AU:TLC	61Neutral	AUD 12.06B	42.38	94.29%	3.04%	-4.64%	-22.15%
AU:SGR	47Neutral	AUD 1.04B	-2.55	-64.40%	―	-9.32%	59.25%
AU:BBT	41Neutral	AUD 136.45M	-3.40	-29.69%	―	8.87%	-260.38%
AU:PBH	41Neutral	AUD 281.55M	-8.10	117.05%	―	-1.00%	28.34%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

TABCF and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
TABCF	Tabcorp Holdings Limited	0.62	-0.04	-5.74%
AU:ALL	Aristocrat Leisure Limited	64.39	1.49	2.36%
AU:SGR	Star Entertainment Group Limited	0.15	0.07	72.22%
AU:PBH	PointsBet Holdings Ltd.	0.81	-0.13	-13.83%
AU:BBT	BlueBet Holdings Ltd.	0.13	-0.11	-45.83%
AU:TLC	Lottery Corporation Limited	5.42	0.15	2.83%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Tabcorp Holdings Limited AI Stock Analysis