Southwest Iowa Renewable Energy (SWIOU) Risk Analysis
Risk Overview Q1, 2023
Risk Change Over Time
- Environmental / Social - Risk 1The California Low Carbon Fuel Standard may decrease demand for corn based ethanol limit access to the California market which could negatively impact our profitability.
California passed the Low Carbon Fuels Standard ("LCFS") which requires that renewable fuels used in California must accomplish certain reductions in greenhouse gases which reductions are measured using a lifecycle analysis. Fuels entering California must meet the LCFS carbon-intensity lifecycle requirements before being sold and consumed in California. These LCFS regulations could preclude corn-based ethanol produced in the Midwest from being used in California. California represents a significant ethanol demand market and if we are unable to meet the requirements of the LCFS, we will be unable to sell our products into the California market which could result in a reduction of our revenues and negatively impact our ability to profitably operate the ethanol plant. Other states and countries, including Oregon, Brazil and Canada have adopted similar LCFS regulations which could further negatively impact the market and demand for conventional corn based ethanol, depending on how the regulations are crafted, enforced and modified which could further adversely impact our operating performance if we are unable to access such markets.
Risk Highlights Q1, 2023
Risk Word Cloud
Risk Factors Full Breakdown - Total Risks 32
- Manufacturing - Risk 1Changes and advances in ethanol production technology could require us to incur costs to update our Facility or could otherwise hinder our ability to compete in the ethanol industry or operate profitably.
Advances and changes in the technology of ethanol production are expected to occur. Such advances and changes may make the ethanol production technology installed in our plant less desirable or obsolete. These advances could also allow our competitors to produce ethanol at a lower cost than us. If we are unable to adopt or incorporate technological advances, our ethanol production methods and processes could be less efficient than our competitors, which could cause our plant to become uncompetitive or completely obsolete. If our competitors develop, obtain or license technology that is superior to ours or that makes our technology obsolete, we may be required to incur significant costs to enhance or acquire new technology so that our ethanol production remains competitive. Alternatively, we may be required to seek third-party licenses, which could also result in significant expenditures. We cannot guarantee or assure that third-party licenses will be available or, once obtained, will continue to be available on commercially reasonable terms, if at all. These costs could negatively impact our financial performance by increasing our operating costs and reducing our net income.
- Manufacturing - Risk 2We may experience delays or disruption in the operation of our rail line and loop track, which may lead to decreased revenues.
We have entered into the Track Agreement to service our track and railroad cars. There may be times when we have to slow production at our ethanol plant due to our inability to ship all of the ethanol and distillers grains we produce, or getting rail cars returned on a timely basis. Due to increased rail traffic nationally because of shipments of crude oil, rail shipment delays have been experienced from time to time, especially during severe winter conditions. Additionally, threats of railroad worker strikes have been frequently discussed. If we cannot operate our plant at full capacity, we may experience decreased revenues which may affect the profitability of the Facility.
- Manufacturing - Risk 3Ethanol production is energy intensive and interruptions in our supply of energy, or volatility in energy prices, could have a material adverse impact on our business.
Ethanol production requires a constant and consistent supply of energy. If our production is halted for any extended period of time, it will have a material adverse effect on our business. If we were to suffer interruptions in our energy supply, our business would be harmed. We have entered into the Steam Contract with MidAm and we also are able to operate at full capacity using natural gas-fired boilers, which mitigates the risk of disruption in steam supply. However, the amount of natural gas we are permitted to use for this purpose is currently limited and the price of natural gas may be significantly higher than our steam price. In addition, natural gas and electricity prices have historically fluctuated significantly. Increases in the price of steam, natural gas or electricity would harm our business by increasing our energy costs. The prices which we will be required to pay for these energy sources will have a direct impact on our costs of producing ethanol and our financial results.
See a full breakdown of risk according to category and subcategory. The list starts with the category with the most risk. Click on subcategories to read relevant extracts from the most recent report.