Supremex (SUMXF) AI Stock Analysis

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Supremex

(Other OTC:SUMXF)

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Action:N/A

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Positive Factors

Packaging Mix ExpansionPackaging is becoming a larger, faster-growing part of the portfolio, reducing reliance on envelopes and aligning Supremex with e-commerce, labels, and folding cartons. A rising mix can broaden demand exposure and create a more durable growth platform if execution continues.

Negative Factors

Tariff ExposureTariffs represent a material recurring cost burden relative to Supremex’s profitability and are not fully offset by planned savings. The remaining gap could pressure margins and cash generation, while continued mitigation efforts may require restructuring or further operational concessions.

Supremex (SUMXF) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: $82.73M
Dividend Yield: 20.98%
Average Volume (3M): 887
Price to Earnings (P/E): 23.2
Beta (1Y): 0.36
Revenue Growth: 9.99%
EPS Growth: -78.28%
Country: US
Employees: 900
Sector: Consumer Cyclical
Sector Strength: 61
Industry: Packaging & Containers

Supremex Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Supremex Inc. specializes in the manufacturing and distribution of envelopes, paper packaging solutions, and various specialty products. They cater to a broad clientele, encompassing corporations, resellers, government bodies, small and medium-sized...

Supremex Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Nov 05, 2026(Q3-2026)|% Change Since:9.09%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 25, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call was broadly positive, with strong revenue, adjusted EBITDA, cash flow, packaging growth, envelope margin expansion, improved leverage during the quarter, and favorable acquisition and market-development commentary. These strengths were partly offset by the CAD 10 million to CAD 12 million annual tariff impact, commercial print weakness, lower reported earnings and adjusted EPS, higher corporate costs, and restructuring requirements.

Positive Updates

Strong Revenue and Adjusted EBITDA Growth

Third-quarter revenue was CAD 76.2 million, up 16.1% from CAD 65.7 million, while adjusted EBITDA increased 38.5% to CAD 8.6 million. The adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 11.3% from 9.4%, despite absorbing approximately CAD 1 million of tariffs.

Negative Updates

Significant Tariff Headwind

Supremex estimates the impact of tariffs at CAD 10 million to CAD 12 million annually on a pre-tax basis, assuming tariffs remain as currently enacted. After mitigation and the restructuring plan, management identified a remaining gap of CAD 4 million to CAD 6 million and said it is continuing to identify ways to reduce it.

Company Guidance

Supremex’s short-term destination is packaging approaching 50% of revenue, with the timing driven by its acquisition pipeline, while it aims to keep leverage around its target of 2x net debt to adjusted EBITDA. The company estimates tariffs at CAD 10 million-CAD 12 million a year, pre-tax, assuming tariffs stay as currently enacted; its restructuring plan eliminates approximately 60 positions, is expected to generate annualized savings of about CAD 5.7 million, with benefits beginning in the fourth quarter and the full run rate reached during the first quarter of 2027, and carries a restructuring charge of approximately CAD 1.8 million in the fourth quarter of 2026. Those savings offset roughly half of the tariff impact, leaving a remaining gap of CAD 4 million-CAD 6 million, and the company expects a little bit of savings in the fourth quarter, with much of the impact being realized in December, at the lower end of like a typical quarter. Management expects organic growth every quarter; it said it would like to think it can keep it at 10.5%, but that is a tough one.

Supremex Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (61)

Financial Indicators

SUMXF against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
TSE:WPK	72Outperform	CAD 2.67B	13.90	10.23%	0.44%	3.27%	2.08%
TSE:TCL.A	69Neutral	CAD 488.05M	1.44	29.10%	351.64%	-43.09%	91.71%
TSE:TCL.B	65Neutral	CAD 488.05M	1.44	29.10%	279.96%	-43.09%	91.71%
Sector *	61Neutral	$18.38B	12.79	-2.54%	3.03%	1.52%	-15.83%
TSE:CAS	58Neutral	CAD 1.63B	12.67	7.19%	2.98%	0.38%	534.97%

* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SUMXF and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
SUMXF	Supremex Inc.	2.46	-0.03	-1.36%
TSE:TCL.A	Transcontinental Inc.	5.79	2.97	105.39%
TSE:TCL.B	Transcontinental Inc. Class B	6.93	3.13	82.37%
TSE:WPK	Winpak Limited	45.63	2.09	4.80%
TSE:CAS	Cascades Inc	15.93	3.90	32.43%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Supremex AI Stock Analysis