Firefly AB (FIRE) AI Stock Analysis

Firefly AB

(Nasdaq OMX AB:FIRE)

Select Model

Rating:75Outperform

Price Target:SEK 186.00▲(13.07% Upside)

Action:reiterated

Date:08/22/26

Firefly earns a solid score driven primarily by its conservative financial profile: an effectively debt-free balance sheet, ~24% return on equity, and high-quality earnings that convert almost entirely into free cash flow. Technical signals reinforce the picture, with the shares trading above all major moving averages and a positive MACD, though momentum indicators suggest the recent advance is already well extended. Valuation is the weakest link — a P/E near 26 is demanding given low single-digit revenue growth and slipping margins, but a 5.5% dividend yield and low beta provide meaningful support. The key watch items are re-accelerating growth, stabilizing margins, and the recent declines in free cash flow and equity base.

Positive Factors

Conservative balance sheetMinimal leverage materially reduces financial risk and interest burden, while substantial equity gives Firefly flexibility to fund projects, maintain operations, and pursue growth without relying heavily on external financing. This strengthens resilience across industrial investment cycles.

Negative Factors

Slowing revenue growthPositive growth remains intact, but the marked slowdown indicates that expansion is losing momentum relative to earlier periods. If this pace persists, Firefly may have less operating leverage and fewer opportunities to compound earnings rapidly from its industrial customer base.

Firefly AB (FIRE) vs. iShares MSCI Sweden ETF (EWD)

Market Cap: SEK 993.23M
Dividend Yield: 6.04%
Average Volume (3M): 3,112
Price to Earnings (P/E): 18.2
Beta (1Y): 0.26
Revenue Growth: 8.56%
EPS Growth: 25.74%
Country: Sweden
Employees: 170
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Security & Protection Services

Firefly AB Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Firefly AB (publ), a company established in Stockholm, Sweden, in 1969, specializes globally in the development and sale of industrial fire prevention and protection systems for process industries. The firm operates through two primary business segme...

How the Company Makes Money

Firefly AB makes money by selling and servicing industrial fire prevention and protection solutions to industrial customers. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Equipment and system sales: revenue from engineered solutions and hardware install...

Firefly AB Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Firefly combines a virtually debt-free balance sheet (debt-to-equity near zero, equity funding ~55% of assets) with attractive returns on equity of ~24% and excellent free cash flow conversion of roughly 95% of net income. Profitability is stable, with gross margin near 40% and an operating margin around 12%. Offsetting this, revenue growth has decelerated sharply from 20%+ in 2022–2023 to low single digits, operating and net margins have slipped from 2024 peaks, free cash flow fell ~18% versus the prior period, and the equity base has shrunk from SEK 189.0m to SEK 146.7m. Balance sheet strength (87) is the anchor, with income statement (72) and cash flow (74) solid but showing softening momentum.

Income Statement

72Positive

Balance Sheet

87Very Positive

Cash Flow

74Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	520.56M	503.25M	497.06M	477.93M	384.43M	300.23M
Gross Profit	210.32M	204.97M	204.75M	178.67M	134.06M	111.87M
EBITDA	70.47M	66.30M	78.04M	62.85M	46.46M	26.64M
Net Income	54.52M	47.56M	54.83M	45.24M	34.84M	18.82M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	268.57M	307.75M	303.00M	288.45M	219.37M	192.80M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.06M	80.08M	67.87M	52.96M	32.95M	52.66M
Total Debt	690.00K	1.53M	2.06M	1.94M	2.16M	0
Total Liabilities	121.83M	118.78M	127.67M	140.69M	143.58M	122.43M
Stockholders Equity	146.74M	188.97M	175.33M	147.77M	75.79M	70.37M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	42.91M	45.84M	38.77M	36.25M	-5.56M	23.87M
Operating Cash Flow	45.46M	50.44M	42.54M	41.21M	-1.44M	32.55M
Investing Cash Flow	-2.45M	-4.60M	1.53M	-5.01M	-4.33M	-8.89M
Financing Cash Flow	-60.11M	-33.18M	-29.27M	-18.55M	-15.00M	-12.60M

Firefly AB Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNegative

Last Price164.50

Price Trends

50DMA170.81Negative

100DMA168.49Negative

200DMA173.13Negative

Market Momentum

MACD-1.48Negative

RSI44.80Neutral

STOCH71.79Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SE:FIRE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 164.50 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 166.92, below the 50-day MA of 170.81, and below the 200-day MA of 173.13, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -1.48 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 44.80 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 71.79 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SE:FIRE.

Firefly AB Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

SE:FIRE against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
SE:FIRE	75Outperform	SEK 993.23M	18.21	―	6.04%	8.56%	25.74%
SE:LOOMIS	70Outperform	SEK 36.06B	18.44	18.22%	2.69%	0.55%	14.96%
SE:SGG	63Neutral	SEK 491.19M	12.21	6.72%	―	4.44%	―
SE:SECU.B	61Neutral	SEK 89.03B	12.59	17.04%	3.15%	-4.70%	40.25%
SE:VSURE	61Neutral	EUR 11.25B	-93.62	―	0.93%	9.90%	-38.94%
SE:TSEC	57Neutral	SEK 104.84M	39.00	―	―	16.19%	―
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

SE:FIRE and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
SE:FIRE	Firefly AB	165.50	-21.47	-11.48%
SE:LOOMIS	Loomis AB	557.00	208.89	60.01%
SE:SECU.B	Securitas AB	155.40	22.27	16.73%
SE:SGG	Sensys Gatso Group AB	42.60	5.05	13.45%
SE:TSEC	Tempest Security AB	10.00	-0.75	-6.98%
SE:VSURE	Verisure Plc	10.86	-4.60	-29.73%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Aug 22, 2026

Firefly AB AI Stock Analysis