SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $423.94M
• Dividend Yield: N/A
• Average Volume (3M): 770.25K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 1.64
• Revenue Growth: -47.94%
• EPS Growth: 30.94%
• Country: US
• Employees: 353
• Sector: Healthcare
• Sector Strength: 55
• Industry: Biotechnology
• EPS (TTM): -1.01
• Shares Outstanding: 62,620,693
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 683,935
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 770,252
• PEG Ratio: -0.43
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.81
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: -4.91
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 4.98
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 7.22
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 54.73
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: -1.33
• 1Y Price Target: $8.75
• Price Target Upside: 32.58% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Hold
• Number of Analyst Covering: 14

• Rating: 43 Neutral
• Price Target: $6.50 ▼(-1.52%Downside)

The overall stock score for SAGE Therapeutics is primarily influenced by significant financial challenges, including declining revenues and negative cash flows, leading to a low financial performance score. Technical analysis also points to a bearish trend. While the earnings call provided some positive developments, it was not enough to offset the broader financial concerns.

Positive Factors

Product Launch and Adoption

Management highlighted that Zurzuvae has been shipped to >10,000 women with PPD since launch, and it indicated that >70% of women received Zurzuvae in the 1L setting, which is encouraging.

Sales and Marketing Strategy

The company completed the expansion of its sales force and increased targeted marketing efforts with direct-to-consumer and social media campaigns, which should have a positive impact.

Negative Factors

Financial Performance

The full-year 2025 earnings per share forecast has been revised downward from -$2.80 to -$3.63, reflecting challenges in the company's financial outlook.

Strategic Uncertainty

The Board of Directors continues to advance its strategic alternatives, which may suggest uncertainty about the company's future direction.

SAGE Therapeutics Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

SAGE Therapeutics (SAGE) is a biopharmaceutical company committed to developing novel therapies for central nervous system (CNS) disorders. Founded in 2010 and headquartered in Cambridge, Massachusetts, SAGE focuses on identifying and developing medicines that target the brain's neurotransmitter pathways to address conditions such as depression, insomnia, and other CNS-related diseases. The company's flagship products include Zulresso (brexanolone) for the treatment of postpartum depression and other promising compounds in its pipeline aimed at various psychiatric and neurological conditions.

How the Company Makes Money

SAGE Therapeutics primarily generates revenue through the sale of its FDA-approved drug, Zulresso, which is used to treat postpartum depression. The company also invests heavily in research and development to bring new CNS therapies to market, which can eventually lead to additional revenue streams if these products are successfully commercialized. SAGE may enter into strategic partnerships and collaborations with other pharmaceutical companies to enhance its R&D efforts and expand market access, potentially receiving milestone payments and royalties. Revenue can also be affected by factors such as drug pricing, insurance reimbursement policies, and the competitive landscape within the biopharmaceutical industry.

SAGE Therapeutics Financial Statement Overview

Summary

SAGE Therapeutics faces significant financial challenges with declining revenues, persistent losses, and negative cash flows. The balance sheet shows low leverage, but the declining trend in assets and equity is worrisome. The company needs to focus on stabilizing and growing its revenue base while improving operational efficiency to manage costs better and enhance cash flow.

Income Statement

SAGE Therapeutics has experienced a significant decline in revenue from 2020 to TTM 2025, with total revenue decreasing sharply. Gross profit margin remains relatively high, but the company is struggling with negative EBIT and net income, indicating challenges in managing operational costs and achieving profitability. The revenue growth rate is negative, reflecting a contraction in sales, which poses a significant concern for future prospects.

Balance Sheet

The debt-to-equity ratio is low, indicating low leverage, which is a positive aspect. However, the company’s stockholders' equity has decreased over the years, and total assets have also declined. The equity ratio remains strong, suggesting a good proportion of equity in the asset base, but the decreasing trend in assets and equity is concerning.

Cash Flow

The operating cash flow and free cash flow are both negative and have worsened from 2020 to TTM 2025, highlighting cash flow challenges. The operating cash flow to net income ratio is negative, indicating inefficiencies in converting income into cash. The company has managed its cash position somewhat by reducing capital expenditures and increasing investing cash flow, but the consistent negative free cash flow is a red flag.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
47.40M	41.24M	86.45M	7.69M	6.31M	1.11B
	Gross Profit
38.58M	31.80M	84.30M	6.87M	5.75M	1.11B
	EBIT
-382.15M	-432.37M	-579.85M	-546.99M	-460.91M	596.23M
	EBITDA
-359.86M	-409.49M	-545.07M	-545.87M	-456.73M	626.60M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-354.40M	-400.67M	-541.49M	-503.27M	-450.83M	606.07M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
423.85M	504.42M	753.18M	1.27B	1.74B	2.10B
	Total Assets
469.67M	547.22M	882.28M	1.36B	1.83B	2.16B
	Total Debt
11.86M	11.84M	5.17M	12.13M	18.43M	28.10M
	Net Debt
-33.37M	-69.19M	-65.83M	-150.57M	-275.80M	-1.63B
	Total Liabilities
59.82M	82.13M	82.75M	103.85M	96.26M	86.91M
	Stockholders Equity
409.85M	465.09M	799.53M	1.25B	1.73B	2.07B
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
-311.09M	-267.19M	-541.14M	-460.97M	-378.55M	663.93M
	Operating Cash Flow
-311.09M	-267.19M	-540.59M	-460.04M	-378.18M	664.28M
	Investing Cash Flow
173.03M	266.68M	442.91M	325.43M	-1.00B	442.68M
	Financing Cash Flow
9.25M	10.66M	6.03M	3.07M	13.33M	426.76M

SAGE Therapeutics Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Negative
• Last Price: 6.60
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For SAGE, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6.6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.71, below the 50-day MA of 6.97, and below the 200-day MA of 6.88, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.07 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 47.26 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.22 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for SAGE.

SAGE Therapeutics Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
BCYC	55 Neutral	$606.21M	―	-37.13%	―	-38.14%	29.69%
CAPR	54 Neutral	$600.60M	―	-75.39%	―	-35.92%	-62.11%
Sector *	54 Neutral	$5.38B	3.31	-45.11%	3.29%	16.82%	0.04%
AKBA	49 Neutral	$937.61M	―	91.25%	―	-17.75%	-19.17%
SAGE	43 Neutral	$423.94M	―	-63.53%	―	-47.94%	30.94%
OPT	39 Underperform	$478.89M	―		―	-25.10%	-7.06%
CGEM	35 Underperform	$529.95M	―	-36.57%	―	―	15.34%

SAGE Therapeutics Corporate Events

SAGE Therapeutics Announces CMO Resignation and Interim Appointment

On March 3, 2025, Sage Therapeutics announced the resignation of its Chief Medical Officer, Dr. Laura Gault, effective March 21, 2025, as she pursues a new opportunity. The company has appointed its current Chief Scientific Officer, Dr. Mike Quirk, to take over key responsibilities on an interim basis, ensuring continuity in strategic guidance for its clinical development programs.