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Orange Polska SA (OPL) AI Stock Analysis
Orange Polska SA
(Warsaw:OPL)
The stock’s score is anchored by stable and profitable core operations, a balanced capital structure, and a notably attractive valuation driven by a low P/E and high dividend yield. However, liquidity and flexibility are tempered by weaker recent free cash flow trends, and the technical outlook is neutral given the absence of positive or negative signals. The standout strength is value, but moderate execution and cash flow risks keep the overall score at a solid, above-average level.
Orange Polska SA (OPL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- PLN 2.69B
- Dividend Yield
- 3.73%
- Average Volume (3M)
- 1.31M
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 22.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.38
- Revenue Growth
- 5.40%
- EPS Growth
- 8.83%
- Country
- PL
- Employees
- 8,179
- Sector
- Communication Services
- Sector Strength
- 60
- Industry
- Telecommunications Services
Orange Polska SA Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Operating in Poland, Orange Polska S.A. and its affiliates deliver a broad spectrum of telecommunication solutions. The company furnishes mobile and fixed-line services, encompassing voice calls, messaging, digital content, and access to the internet...
How the Company Makes Money
Orange Polska generates revenue primarily through its telecommunications services, which include mobile voice and data services, fixed-line internet and telephony, and digital television subscriptions. Key revenue streams consist of monthly subscript...
Orange Polska SA Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, with record quarterly EBITDAaL, robust revenue and cash-flow growth, improving customer and ARPU trends, strong fiber and IT&IS performance, and progress toward full-year guidance. The main challenges were the volatility of project-driven IT&IS, inflation and network-cost pressures, a tougher wholesale comparison in Q4, the long-term timing of Nexera synergies and FiberCo dividends, and a PLN 400 million spectrum renewal outflow in 2027.
Q3-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
Management maintained guidance for above 6% EBITDAaL growth for the full year, with perfect execution potentially delivering 1% or 2% higher growth, meaning even 7% or 8% on an annual basis, and expects organic cash generation well above PLN 1.2 billion; Q4 EBITDAaL is expected to show a very solid increase, possibly even reaching mid-single digits for Q4 stand-alone, while core telco service revenues are expected to show even stronger growth and wholesale faces a more challenging comparable base. IT&IS profitability is expected to remain between 10% and 12%, indirect costs are targeted to be at least flat year-over-year and CAPEX flat, Q4 IT&IS performance is expected to remain strong although the level of 24%-25% will not be repeated, and Światłowód Inwestycje household rollout is expected to be close to 300,000 in 2027. Midterm guidance assumes low to mid single digits percentage growth, with a clear ambition to try and reach the mid single digit, supporting organic cash generation; spectrum renewal next year is around PLN 400 million, services to Nexera could be few million PLN per quarter, ARPO performance in Q4 is expected to be as strong or even slightly uplifted, and dividends from Światłowód Inwestycje could begin beyond 2032, 2033.
Orange Polska SA Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income statement fundamentals are robust, with strong and stable profitability (gross profit margin 40.9%, net profit margin 7.2%) and healthy EBIT/EBITDA margins, reflecting solid core operations. The balance sheet is stable, with moderate leverage (debt-to-equity 0.56), but capital efficiency (ROE 6.8%) is only modest. However, cash flow is a notable weakness: despite healthy operating cash flow, free cash flow declined sharply (down 28.8%), constraining future flexibility. Overall, the company’s financial health is stable-to-strong operationally, but recent cash flow deterioration moderates the score.
Income Statement
79PositiveBalance Sheet
73PositiveCash Flow
55Neutral| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 13.77B | 13.13B | 12.73B | 12.97B | 12.49B | 11.93B |
| Gross Profit | 2.03B | 1.08B | 5.21B | 5.20B | 5.05B | 5.14B |
| EBITDA | 4.02B | 3.76B | 4.03B | 3.85B | 3.70B | 4.89B |
| Net Income | 973.00M | 762.00M | 913.00M | 818.00M | 724.00M | 1.67B |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 26.45B | 27.01B | 26.60B | 26.83B | 26.77B | 26.16B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 170.00M | 518.00M | 546.00M | 796.00M | 1.03B | 933.00M |
| Total Debt | 7.32B | 7.26B | 7.07B | 7.15B | 7.75B | 7.78B |
| Total Liabilities | 12.72B | 13.48B | 12.96B | 13.38B | 13.31B | 13.55B |
| Stockholders Equity | 13.73B | 13.52B | 13.64B | 13.44B | 13.45B | 12.61B |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 1.60B | 769.00M | 995.00M | 1.16B | 616.00M | 902.00M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 3.58B | 3.60B | 3.41B | 3.45B | 2.94B | 3.10B |
| Investing Cash Flow | -2.29B | -2.59B | -2.17B | -2.05B | -2.00B | -1.16B |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.73B | -1.04B | -1.49B | -1.63B | -850.00M | -1.37B |
Orange Polska SA Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For PL:OPL, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 16.15 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.82, above the 50-day MA of 14.62, and above the 200-day MA of 14.10, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.55 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.34 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 76.69 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for PL:OPL.
Orange Polska SA Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- PL:OPL72Outperform
PL:CPS53Neutral
Financial Indicators
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PL:OPL | Orange Polska SA | 16.36 | 7.63 | 87.54% | |
| PL:CPS | Cyfrowy Polsat | 12.90 | 0.09 | 0.70% | |
| PL:ETL | Eurotel S.A. | 29.70 | 0.00 | 0.00% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Sep 16, 2025