ONEX Corporation (ONEXF) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

Onex reiterated a clear path to $35 million of exit run‑rate fee‑related earnings (FRE) by the end of 2026—contingent on a first close of Onex Partners VI expected later this year—and said it will resume share repurchases immediately now that the NAV loan has been reduced to $220 million (from a $700 million draw), cash and near‑cash stood at $287 million, and $600 million of revolver capacity remains available. Key metrics cited: total investing capital per share was $123.99 (CAD 176.02) with pro‑forma investing capital ≈ $4.4 billion; Convex is valued at USD 4.2 billion (CAD 76.83/sh) and comprises 44% of investing capital, with Q2 gross premiums written of $1.9 billion (+8% YoY), Q2 net income $169 million, a Q2 combined ratio of 85%, LTM adjusted net income $719 million (+38% YoY), LTM combined ratio 84% (loss ratio 48% vs 59%) and ROATE 20.3%; Convex faced $62 million of YTD mark‑to‑market investment losses but moved fixed income to available‑for‑sale. On the PE and credit side, private equity investing capital fell to $4.4 billion (46% of investing capital) from $5.6 billion (65% at YE2025), OP V DPI = 1.0 and ~ $1.4 billion of PE realizations were generated in the past 12 months (ex‑Convex); fee‑generating AUM was $43.2 billion (+6% LTM) with credit FGAUM $30.6 billion and PE FGAUM $12.6 billion, run‑rate management fees $211 million, Q2 in‑year FRE $4 million (structured credit delivered $19 million FRE—the best quarter to date), H1 CLO activity added $4.4 billion of fee‑generating AUM across 10 CLOs, OSCO II closed with > $500 million committed, unfunded commitments are $275 million (down from $330M YE), and direct lending is ~1% of Credit AUM.