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Warehouse Group (WHS) AI Stock Analysis
Warehouse Group
(NZX:WHS)
Overall score reflects weak underlying financial quality (thin margins and elevated leverage) despite improved 2026 profitability and stronger cash generation. Technicals are broadly neutral with only modest momentum, while valuation appears fair rather than compelling given the earnings profile. Earnings-call commentary supports the score via clear turnaround progress and encouraging early FY27 trading, but with notable execution risks (loss-making core banner, aged inventory, and competitive pressures).
Warehouse Group (WHS) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
- Market Cap
- NZD 184.76M
- Dividend Yield
- ―
- Average Volume (3M)
- 83.75K
- Price to Earnings (P/E)
- 20.3
- Beta (1Y)
- 0.42
- Revenue Growth
- -1.92%
- EPS Growth
- ―
- Country
- NZ
- Employees
- 9,589
- Sector
- Consumer Cyclical
- Sector Strength
- 61
- Industry
- Department Stores
Warehouse Group Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
The Warehouse Group Limited, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of retail stores in New Zealand. The company sells general merchandise, apparels, technology, appliance, and stationery products. The Warehouse Group Limited operat...
How the Company Makes Money
The Warehouse Group makes money primarily by selling products to consumers through its retail brands via in-store and online channels. Its core revenue stream is retail sales of merchandise (general merchandise and other product categories sold acros...
Warehouse Group Earnings Call Summary
The call was predominantly positive, with management highlighting a substantial turnaround in operating profit, a return to reported profitability, improved margins and costs, strong cash generation, lower net debt, better inventory productivity, and encouraging early FY '27 trading. However, the group remains in turnaround mode: The Warehouse is still loss-making, several comparable-sales measures declined, Noel Leeming faces competitive and top-line pressure, aged inventory remains elevated, no final dividend was declared, and management expects ongoing inflationary cost growth and continued uncertainty.
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive Updates
Negative Updates
Company Guidance
For FY ’27, trading in the first 8 weeks showed group sales “broadly in line with the prior year” and margin performance “ahead,” while the group remains cautious; getting cost of doing business below 31% of sales is “probably more” a “medium-term aspiration,” with costs expected to grow “more slowly than inflation” and “at a rate lower than inflation”; the 53rd week has an impact “in the vicinity of $15 million to $16 million,” some TCS benefits “won’t repeat next year,” and further cost benefits are expected into next year; inventory remains an opportunity, with “21%” still over 6 months aged, while reducing over-6-month inventory to “5%” from “15%” could turn stock turn to “5.5%”; CapEx levels will be higher, “lower than what a long-run average,” and not back to FY ’21, ’22, ’23 levels; and the November Investor Day will provide “longer-term financial aspirations” and greater clarity on the next “3 to 4 years,” including the intent to return to store growth at Noel Leeming.
Warehouse Group Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Financial quality remains weak overall: revenue has been flat-to-down and margins are very thin, despite a return to profitability in 2026. Leverage is elevated (high debt-to-equity), which increases risk and limits flexibility, partly offset by consistently positive operating cash flow and a sharp improvement in 2026 free cash flow.
Income Statement
44NeutralBalance Sheet
35NegativeCash Flow
63Positive| Breakdown | TTM | Jul 2026 | Jul 2025 | Jul 2024 | Jul 2023 | Jul 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 3.03B | 3.03B | 3.09B | 3.04B | 3.40B | 3.29B |
| Gross Profit | 320.05M | 320.82M | 312.81M | 1.02B | 1.14B | 1.16B |
| EBITDA | 194.53M | 196.79M | 197.04M | 227.82M | 230.95M | 268.80M |
| Net Income | 11.23M | 11.23M | -2.76M | -54.18M | 29.81M | 89.31M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 1.51B | 1.51B | 1.59B | 1.65B | 1.77B | 1.86B |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 41.88M | 41.88M | 39.21M | 32.20M | 28.33M | 25.00M |
| Total Debt | 764.23M | 764.23M | 849.14M | 819.71M | 879.56M | 886.99M |
| Total Liabilities | 1.20B | 1.20B | 1.29B | 1.34B | 1.37B | 1.44B |
| Stockholders Equity | 312.05M | 312.05M | 299.37M | 309.55M | 402.07M | 421.91M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 174.07M | 174.07M | 59.72M | 146.59M | 99.09M | -6.55M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 193.51M | 193.51M | 72.32M | 185.87M | 214.18M | 105.42M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -19.40M | -19.40M | -12.44M | -43.65M | -85.11M | -113.23M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -171.43M | -171.43M | -52.88M | -138.35M | -125.74M | -127.72M |
Warehouse Group Technical Analysis
Price Trends
Market Momentum
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:WHS, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 0.66 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.66, above the 50-day MA of 0.65, and below the 200-day MA of 0.66, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.00 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 54.30 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 83.33 is Negative, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:WHS.
Warehouse Group Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
- NZ:WHS51Neutral
NZ:KMD48Neutral
NZ:CCC45Neutral
Financial Indicators
| Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sector * | 61Neutral | $18.38B | 12.79 | -2.54% | 3.03% | 1.52% | -15.83% |
| NZ:WHS | 51Neutral | NZD 227.93M | 20.31 | 3.61% | ― | -1.92% | ― |
| NZ:KMD | 48Neutral | NZD 134.60M | -0.32 | -79.57% | ― | 6.47% | -193.50% |
| NZ:CCC | 45Neutral | NZD 8.83M | 21.80 | -17.64% | ― | 90.03% | -53.08% |
* Consumer Cyclical Sector Average
Performance Comparison
| Show on chart | Ticker | Company Name | Price | Change | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NZ:WHS | Warehouse Group | 0.66 | -0.15 | -18.52% | |
| NZ:KMD | KMD Brands Limited | 1.87 | -2.50 | -57.19% | |
| NZ:CCC | Cooks Coffee Company Limited | 0.13 | -0.11 | -44.58% |
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.
Date of analysis: Oct 05, 2026