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Serko
(SKO)
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Rating:53Neutral
Price Target:
$1.00
▼(-31.03% Downside)
Action:N/A
Date:10/05/26
The score is primarily held back by still-negative profitability and free cash flow despite improving operating trajectory. Technicals are also weak, with the price below key moving averages and negative MACD. Offsetting these are a conservatively levered (no-debt) balance sheet and an earnings call that showed meaningful EBITDA improvement and constructive FY'27 guidance, albeit with notable execution and cash-flow risks.
Positive Factors
Strong growth and customer adoption
Strong income growth alongside rising room nights and active customers indicates expanding platform usage and enterprise adoption. This broadens Serko’s recurring business-travel activity base and supports further operating leverage as customer volumes scale over coming quarters.
Negative Factors
Persistent losses and negative free cash flow
Serko remains dependent on its cash reserves while accounting losses and negative free cash flow persist. Until investment converts more reliably into earnings and cash generation, the company has less internally funded capacity for expansion and remains exposed to execution setbacks.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Strong growth and customer adoption
Strong income growth alongside rising room nights and active customers indicates expanding platform usage and enterprise adoption. This broadens Serko’s recurring business-travel activity base and supports further operating leverage as customer volumes scale over coming quarters.
Read all positive factors
Serko (SKO) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$151.93M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)63.17K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.03
Revenue Growth34.93%
EPS Growth20.04%
CountryNZ
Employees390
SectorTechnology
Sector Strength88
IndustrySoftware - Application
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.14
Shares Outstanding126,139,275
10 Day Avg. Volume83,776
30 Day Avg. Volume63,171
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.53
Price to Book (P/B)2.29
Price to Sales (P/S)1.70
P/FCF Ratio-70.34
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$3.97Price Target Upside173.83% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering1
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.06
Revenue Forecast (FY)$130.44M
Serko Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
Serko Limited, a technology firm operating on a Software-as-a-Service model, delivers online solutions for corporate travel booking and expense administration. Its services span New Zealand, Australia, North America, Europe, and global markets. Th...
How the Company Makes Money
Serko primarily makes money by charging customers for access to its software platform (software-as-a-service). Revenue is generated through recurring subscription and/or usage-based fees tied to the deployment of its online booking and travel mana...
Serko Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 19, 2026
(Q4-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 16, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call showed strong top-line growth, significant operating leverage and a marked improvement in EBITDAFI, supported by a solid balance sheet and promising product initiatives (Serko.ai closed beta, mobile conversion uplift, autonomous support). However, profitability and cash generation remain under pressure in the short term due to increased platform investment, acquisition-related costs (GetThere) and FX volatility. FY '27 guidance carries execution risk because a meaningful portion of upside depends on early-stage U.S. initiatives. Overall, positives around growth, product momentum and capital strength outweigh near-term challenges.Positive Updates
Strong Total Income Growth
Total income grew 34% year-on-year to NZD 120.9 million, driven by Booking.com for Business and the first full year contribution from GetThere (NZD 16.1 million).
Negative Updates
Net Loss and Negative Free Cash Flow
Net loss after tax remained NZD 17.7 million (improvement of NZD 4.2 million year-on-year) and free cash flow was negative NZD 4.4 million as investment in strategic initiatives increased.
Read all updates
Q4-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strong Total Income Growth
Total income grew 34% year-on-year to NZD 120.9 million, driven by Booking.com for Business and the first full year contribution from GetThere (NZD 16.1 million).
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
For FY'27 Serko guided total income of NZD 128–134 million (implying roughly +6–11% on FY'26's NZD 120.9m) and total spend of NZD 132–140 million (FY'26 spend was NZD 122.9m, or 102% of income), with the range primarily driven by timing of booking volumes from the targeted U.S. corporate segments and subject to macro and geopolitical volatility (notably the Middle East). Management noted booking volumes are slightly ahead of expectations, expects the U.S. defined-segment ramp to materially affect the top end of the range, and highlighted that hedging (selling EUR 32m at an average NZD1.977/EUR) should reduce FX volatility. FY'26 financials underpinning the outlook included EBITDAFI of NZD 6.5m (up 137%), a net loss after tax of NZD 17.7m (improved NZD 4.2m), free cash flow of -NZD 4.4m, NZD 54.1m cash and no debt, and Booking.com for Business momentum (4.3m completed room nights, +31%; 301k active customers, +36%).Serko Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
72
Positive
Cash Flow
55
Neutral
| Breakdown | Mar 2026 | Mar 2025 | Mar 2024 | Mar 2023 | Mar 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | |||||
| Total Revenue | 119.39M | 88.48M | 68.76M | 46.49M | 17.86M |
| Gross Profit | 15.81M | 88.48M | -5.42M | -2.84M | -14.22M |
| EBITDA | 5.06M | -647.00K | -577.00K | -18.43M | -27.83M |
| Net Income | -17.74M | -21.96M | -15.88M | -30.54M | -35.96M |
Balance Sheet | |||||
| Total Assets | 115.98M | 126.34M | 130.14M | 140.92M | 167.19M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 54.15M | 61.40M | 80.64M | 87.74M | 124.51M |
| Total Debt | 6.93M | 2.05M | 1.98M | 3.11M | 3.00M |
| Total Liabilities | 27.32M | 26.40M | 14.41M | 14.99M | 16.31M |
| Stockholders Equity | 88.66M | 99.94M | 115.73M | 125.93M | 150.88M |
Cash Flow | |||||
| Free Cash Flow | -2.89M | -1.40M | -5.53M | -22.79M | -19.23M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 7.03M | 4.82M | 5.89M | -22.33M | -18.46M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -7.76M | -2.04M | -5.42M | 3.49M | -61.09M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -1.34M | -1.16M | -1.16M | -958.00K | 79.17M |
Serko Technical Analysis
Negative
1.45
Price Trends
1.46
Negative
1.48
Negative
1.86
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.05
Negative
41.44
Neutral
36.18
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:SKO, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 1.45 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.31, below the 50-day MA of 1.46, and below the 200-day MA of 1.86, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.05 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.44 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 36.18 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NZ:SKO.
Serko Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
62 Neutral | $411.60M | 21.62 | 7.67% | 7.77% | 2.29% | 59.78% | |
61 Neutral | $37.18B | 12.37 | -10.20% | 1.83% | 8.50% | -7.62% | |
59 Neutral | $662.83M | 348.10 | 1.29% | 0.84% | 10.29% | ― | |
53 Neutral | $151.93M | -8.41 | -19.61% | ― | 34.93% | 20.04% | |
48 Neutral | $183.71M | -1.15 | -89.72% | ― | 0.58% | -11731.08% | |
46 Neutral | $211.56M | -26.21 | -27.94% | ― | 5.61% | 59.21% | |
42 Neutral | $23.60M | -1.11 | -105.98% | ― | 77.01% | -34.97% |
* Technology Sector Average
NZ:SKO
Serko
1.21
-1.54
-56.00%
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Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.