NZX (NZX) AI Stock Analysis

NZX

(NZX:NZX)

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Rating:73Outperform

Price Target:NZD 1.50▼(-1.32% Downside)

Action:initiatedcoverage

Date:10/05/26

Overall score reflects solid financial performance (steady revenue growth and strong operating profitability tempered by a 2025 net income/net margin dip and uneven cash conversion) and supportive technicals (price above key moving averages with positive momentum). Valuation is balanced, with an attractive dividend yield partly offset by a moderate-to-high P/E.

Positive Factors

Diversified earnings growthNZX is demonstrating that growth is not dependent on one market activity alone. Smartshares, wealth technology and derivatives contributed alongside its core exchange operations, supporting resilience, broader revenue opportunities and a stronger platform for investment over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Sharp decline in capital raisingA sustained slowdown in new issuance reduces activity linked to listings and capital formation, potentially limiting issuer-service growth and weakening the pipeline of future listed companies. This creates a structural headwind even while trading and funds businesses remain comparatively stronger.

NZX (NZX) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: NZD 287.76M
Dividend Yield: 5.03%
Average Volume (3M): 278.33K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 21.7
Beta (1Y): 0.81
Revenue Growth: 15.44%
EPS Growth: 23.50%
Country: NZ
Employees: 356
Sector: Financial
Sector Strength: 68
Industry: Financial - Data & Stock Exchanges

NZX Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

NZX Limited functions as the primary operator of New Zealand's stock exchange. The company's diverse activities are structured across five principal divisions. Its Capital Markets Origination segment offers essential services to both existing and pot...

How the Company Makes Money

NZX primarily makes money by charging fees tied to the operation and use of its market infrastructure and information products. Key revenue streams typically include: (1) Trading and post-trade services: fees earned from on-market trading activity an...

NZX Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:Feb 24, 2026(Q4-2025)|% Change Since:10.79%|Next Earnings Date:Feb 18, 2027

Earnings Call SentimentPositive

The call presented a largely positive operational and financial story: revenue up 7.3%, EBITDA (pre‑one‑offs) up 11.6%, strong growth in Smart and Wealth Technologies (ARR +22.2%, FUA +23.1%, average FUM +20.3%), improved margin (41.5%), and a higher dividend supported by stronger free cash flow (+25%). Offsetting these positives were headwinds in the Markets business (impacted by the Fonterra contract move and lower contractual revenues), a headline NPAT decline driven by prior year accounting items, targeted integration and restructuring costs, and near‑term uncertainty from macro and regulatory factors. On balance the company showed solid momentum in its growth businesses and healthy cash generation, while managing legacy market and one‑off pressures.

Positive Updates

Strong EBITDA Performance

Operating earnings (EBITDA) before integration and restructuring were $53.5 million, up 11.6% year‑on‑year; including integration and restructuring costs EBITDA was $51.7 million, also up ~11%.

Negative Updates

Markets Segment Headwinds

Markets operating earnings decreased by $2.2 million; Markets revenue declined $1.7 million due to the Fonterra contract moving to the main board, electricity authority contract repricing at lower preset levels, and absence of one‑off audit/backdated license revenues.

Company Guidance

NZX guided FY2026 operating earnings (excluding one‑offs) of $53.0m–$58.5m (the bottom of the range equals FY2025 operating earnings of $53.5m), noting the range is conservative and subject to normal market caveats; management expects Wealth Technologies and Smart to drive growth while Markets and issuance remain subject to macro conditions. Key FY2025 metrics underpinning the guidance: revenue $128.9m (+7.3%), operating expenses $75.5m (+4.5%), operating margin 41.5%, operating earnings before integration/restructuring $53.5m (+11.6%), reported NPAT $21.5m (like‑for‑like +20.2%), free cash flow $26.5m (+25%) and net cash flow $3.2m; Wealth Technologies ARR +22.2% (ARR $13.2m at Dec‑25 with $1.3m of migrations anchored and $4.3m of additional prospective migrations — potential ARR ~ $17.8m), FUA +23.1% and Wealth Tech operating earnings $6.3m (+31.1%); Smart average FUM +20.3%, FUM/Funds under management growth ~17.9% and Smart operating earnings $29.3m (+30.9%); dairy derivatives lots +22.2%; Board declared a fully‑imputed final dividend $0.033/share (full year $0.063/share, up from $0.061) and signalled a path to progressively lift dividends, while expecting Wealth Tech CapEx to increase for at least the next two years to support client migrations.

NZX Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Fundamentals are solid overall: revenue has trended up steadily with stronger growth in 2025 and operating profitability remains strong. Offsetting this, net income and net margin dipped in 2025 despite higher revenue, cash conversion has been uneven (including negative free cash flow in 2022), and leverage remains moderately elevated without clear de-risking.

Income Statement

78Positive

Balance Sheet

66Positive

Cash Flow

72Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Dec 2025	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021
Income Statement
Total Revenue	143.85M	128.95M	120.65M	108.39M	95.67M	87.87M
Gross Profit	104.49M	109.67M	120.65M	41.63M	37.97M	37.08M
EBITDA	56.18M	53.78M	56.31M	40.11M	36.60M	35.78M
Net Income	22.98M	21.48M	25.49M	13.55M	14.16M	15.02M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	296.30M	277.39M	282.43M	276.47M	233.20M	180.63M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	35.14M	52.05M	48.83M	44.67M	40.61M	49.06M
Total Debt	73.53M	81.16M	81.19M	82.32M	60.71M	52.52M
Total Liabilities	174.50M	155.20M	155.44M	159.10M	121.49M	110.02M
Stockholders Equity	121.79M	122.19M	127.00M	117.37M	111.71M	70.61M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	43.45M	27.85M	22.46M	22.04M	-17.06M	10.47M
Operating Cash Flow	44.25M	39.49M	35.89M	34.44M	23.44M	27.39M
Investing Cash Flow	-13.65M	-14.84M	-13.42M	-34.93M	-57.13M	-16.92M
Financing Cash Flow	-29.64M	-21.42M	-18.31M	4.55M	25.25M	-14.19M

NZX Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentPositive

Last Price1.52

Price Trends

50DMA1.46Positive

100DMA1.44Positive

200DMA1.40Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.01Negative

RSI61.45Neutral

STOCH79.17Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:NZX, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 1.52 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 1.47, above the 50-day MA of 1.46, and above the 200-day MA of 1.40, indicating a bullish trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 61.45 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 79.17 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NZ:NZX.

NZX Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (68)

Financial Indicators

NZ:NZX against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NZ:TWR	75Outperform	NZD 721.16M	12.66	16.98%	12.04%	0.08%	-32.20%
NZ:NZX	73Outperform	NZD 500.45M	21.75	18.84%	5.03%	15.44%	23.50%
Sector *	68Neutral	$18.00B	11.42	9.92%	3.81%	9.73%	1.22%
NZ:HGH	61Neutral	NZD 1.19B	12.74	7.10%	6.54%	-4.94%	139.47%

* Financial Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NZ:NZX and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
NZ:NZX	NZX	1.52	0.08	5.34%
NZ:TWR	Tower Limited	2.10	0.47	28.52%
NZ:HGH	Heartland Group Holdings Ltd.	1.26	0.24	24.02%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 05, 2026

NZX AI Stock Analysis