Foley Wines Ltd. (FWL) AI Stock Analysis

Foley Wines Ltd.

(NZX:FWL)

Select Model

Rating:72Outperform

Price Target:NZD 0.67▲(12.88% Upside)

Action:initiatedcoverage

Date:10/05/26

The overall stock score of 72 is primarily driven by positive technical indicators showing upward momentum and a solid balance sheet with low leverage. Reasonable valuation with a supportive dividend yield adds to the score, while volatile earnings in the income statement limit further upside.

Positive Factors

Premiumisation and margin improvementPremiumisation, targeted marketing and cost control have improved profitability even while volumes weakened. Higher revenue per case and stronger EBITDA can support more resilient earnings, helping Foley Wines protect margins and fund brand, vineyard and winery investment over the next several quarters.

Negative Factors

Declining sales and revenue momentumFalling case volumes and revenue indicate that premiumisation is currently compensating for weaker demand rather than being supported by broad-based growth. Persistent top-line contraction could limit operating leverage, reduce brand-building capacity and make future earnings more dependent on pricing and mix.

Foley Wines Ltd. (FWL) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

Market Cap: NZD 38.78M
Dividend Yield: 3.28%
Average Volume (3M): 16.32K
Price to Earnings (P/E): 13.2
Beta (1Y): -0.59
Revenue Growth: -3.85%
EPS Growth: ―
Country: NZ
Employees: 140
Sector: General
Sector Strength: 55
Industry: Beverages - Wineries & Distilleries

Foley Wines Ltd. Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

Foley Wines Limited operates as a comprehensive wine enterprise, overseeing the production, marketing, and sale of its wines throughout New Zealand. Its portfolio includes a variety of renowned brands such as Martinborough Vineyard, Te Kairanga, Ligh...

Foley Wines Ltd. Financial Statement Overview

Summary

Income statement shows volatility with recent recovery to profitability, while balance sheet is solid with low debt and cash flow has turned positive.

Income Statement

52Neutral

Balance Sheet

75Positive

Cash Flow

68Positive

Financial statement breakdown
Breakdown	TTM	Jun 2026	Jun 2025	Jun 2024	Jun 2023	Jun 2022
Income Statement
Total Revenue	67.84M	67.80M	70.53M	66.45M	66.63M	57.69M
Gross Profit	22.36M	22.32M	22.57M	25.57M	22.33M	22.40M
EBITDA	15.10M	15.05M	8.43M	12.31M	18.52M	17.15M
Net Income	2.94M	2.94M	-1.86M	-4.08M	6.34M	6.20M
Balance Sheet
Total Assets	226.52M	226.52M	230.82M	245.78M	248.08M	233.22M
Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments	874.00K	874.00K	584.00K	101.00K	10.00K	354.00K
Total Debt	57.22M	57.22M	64.21M	76.93M	74.92M	67.48M
Total Liabilities	82.89M	82.89M	88.82M	102.35M	100.57M	89.42M
Stockholders Equity	143.62M	143.62M	142.00M	143.43M	147.51M	143.79M
Cash Flow
Free Cash Flow	7.84M	7.84M	12.62M	-1.43M	-3.67M	-4.92M
Operating Cash Flow	11.75M	11.75M	16.16M	4.34M	10.35M	7.57M
Investing Cash Flow	-3.76M	-3.76M	-3.29M	-5.49M	-13.77M	-12.26M
Financing Cash Flow	-7.69M	-7.69M	-12.39M	5.96M	-973.00K	1.82M

Foley Wines Ltd. Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis SentimentNeutral

Last Price0.59

Price Trends

50DMA0.56Positive

100DMA0.51Positive

200DMA0.52Positive

Market Momentum

MACD0.01Positive

RSI52.57Neutral

STOCH-0.00Positive

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NZ:FWL, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 0.59 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 0.60, above the 50-day MA of 0.56, and above the 200-day MA of 0.52, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.01 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 52.57 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of -0.00 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NZ:FWL.

Foley Wines Ltd. Peers Comparison

Overall Rating

UnderperformOutperform

Sector (55)

Financial Indicators

NZ:FWL against its peers
Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NZ:SEK	74Outperform	NZD 212.79M	5.20	―	12.84%	0.48%	38.02%
NZ:FWL	72Outperform	NZD 38.78M	13.20	―	3.28%	-3.85%	―
NZ:SCL	69Neutral	NZD 960.09M	11.29	―	4.15%	100.12%	60.22%
NZ:DGL	67Neutral	NZD 420.70M	10.67	―	6.22%	4.14%	-19.51%
Sector *	55Neutral	$6.65B	3.83	-15.92%	6.20%	10.91%	7.18%
NZ:TGG	52Neutral	NZD 269.60M	21.21	―	―	-17.18%	196.29%

* General Sector Average

Performance Comparison

NZ:FWL and its peers over the selected period
Ticker	Company Name	Price	Change	% Change
NZ:FWL	Foley Wines Ltd.	0.59	0.01	1.72%
NZ:SCL	Scales Corp. Ltd.	6.55	0.81	14.07%
NZ:SEK	Seeka Limited	5.04	1.01	24.94%
NZ:DGL	Delegat Group Limited	4.16	0.26	6.75%
NZ:FCG	Fonterra Co-operative Group Limited	5.89	0.80	15.83%
NZ:TGG	T&G Global Limited	2.20	-0.16	-6.78%

Glossary

BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.

Date of analysis: Oct 05, 2026

Foley Wines Ltd. AI Stock Analysis