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New York Mortgage Trust (NYMT)
NASDAQ:NYMT
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New York Mortgage
(NASDAQ:NYMT)
Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:―
Positive Factors
Dividend sustainability
Core earnings cover the dividend, yielding 12.6%, which is regarded as sustainable.
Liquidity and leverage strategy
NYMT is positioned well to take advantage of additional opportunities with its current liquidity and leverage strategy.
Stock price potential
The price target has been raised to $8.00, indicating potential stock price appreciation.
Negative Factors
Net loss report
NYMT reported a net loss of ($0.46)/share in 4Q24 due to unrealized securities losses caused by interest rate changes.
Portfolio adjustments
NYMT has been unwinding its positions in multi-family assets since 2022, which has generated losses.
Valuation concerns
The stock is valued in the bottom tier of mortgage REITs, but analysts maintain a buy rating due to a high-dividend yield and expected earnings recovery in 2025.
New York Mortgage (NYMT) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$583.33M
Dividend Yield12.29%
Average Volume (3M)856.14K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.92
Revenue Growth33.94%
EPS Growth96.99%
CountryUS
Employees70
SectorReal Estate
Sector Strength64
IndustryREIT - Mortgage
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.33
Shares Outstanding90,298,220
10 Day Avg. Volume818,908
30 Day Avg. Volume856,140
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.22
Price to Book (P/B)0.43
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
P/FCF Ratio58.75
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$7.70Price Target Upside19.20% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering7
New York Mortgage Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNew York Mortgage Trust, Inc. acquires, invests in, finances, and manages mortgage-related single-family and multi-family residential assets in the United States. Its targeted investments include residential loans, second mortgages, and business purpose loans; structured multi-family property investments, such as preferred equity in, and mezzanine loans to owners of multi-family properties, as well as joint venture equity investments in multi-family properties; non-agency residential mortgage-backed securities (RMBS); agency RMBS; commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS); and other mortgage, residential housing, and credit-related assets. The company qualifies as a real estate investment trust for federal income tax purposes. It generally would not be subject to federal corporate income taxes if it distributes at least 90% of its taxable income to its stockholders. The company was incorporated in 2003 and is headquartered in New York, New York.
How the Company Makes MoneyNew York Mortgage Trust, Inc. makes money primarily through the interest income generated from its portfolio of mortgage and financial assets. The company invests in a variety of mortgage-related assets, including residential mortgage loans and securities, multi-family commercial mortgage-backed securities, and other financial assets. NYMT earns interest income from these investments, which forms the bulk of its revenue. Additionally, the company may engage in strategic partnerships or financial arrangements to optimize its portfolio performance and maximize returns. The revenue model is heavily reliant on the performance of the mortgage and real estate markets, interest rate fluctuations, and the company's ability to effectively manage its investment portfolio.
New York Mortgage Financial Statement Overview
Summary
New York Mortgage's financial health presents a mixed picture. The company has a strong balance sheet with no debt and good cash reserves, but its income statement reveals challenges with declining revenues and ongoing losses. The cash flow statement shows reduced operating cash flow, though it remains positive. The company needs to address its profitability issues to improve investor confidence and long-term growth prospects.Income Statement
New York Mortgage has experienced significant volatility in revenue and profit margins over the years. Recent data shows a decline in Total Revenue from $210 million in 2023 to $83.855 million in 2024, a significant drop. Gross Profit Margin remains stable at 100% for 2024, but Net Profit Margin is negative due to a net loss, indicating profitability challenges. EBIT and EBITDA margins are strong, but net losses raise concerns about overall profitability and growth trajectory.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet shows a strong equity base, with Stockholders' Equity at $1.398 billion in 2024. With Total Debt at $0, the Debt-to-Equity Ratio indicates no leverage risk, which is positive. However, the Return on Equity is negative due to net losses, which impacts shareholder returns. The Equity Ratio is robust at approximately 15.2%, reflecting stable financial structure despite profitability challenges.60
Neutral
Cash Flow
Operating Cash Flow decreased from $29.953 million in 2023 to $14.071 million in 2024, indicating reduced cash generation from operations. Free Cash Flow remains positive but has also decreased. The Operating Cash Flow to Net Income and Free Cash Flow to Net Income ratios are impacted by negative net income but show the company's ability to generate operational cash despite losses. Cash reserves remain strong, helping to mitigate risks.50
Neutral
| Breakdown | |||||
| TTM | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | ||||
| 283.21M | 83.86M | 210.00M | 8.46M | 266.51M | -207.48M | Gross Profit |
| 190.99M | 83.86M | 97.81M | -375.19M | 237.66M | -219.81M | EBIT |
| -71.69M | 35.18M | 48.25M | -311.30M | 195.66M | -287.53M | EBITDA |
| 190.38M | 264.33M | 206.44M | 0.00 | 251.86M | 0.00 | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 26.16M | -62.03M | -48.66M | -340.65M | 193.20M | -288.24M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | ||||
| 4.82B | 4.00B | 2.20B | 409.90M | 490.45M | 1.02B | Total Assets |
| 10.00B | 9.22B | 7.40B | 6.24B | 5.64B | 4.66B | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 3.56B | 5.28B | 2.64B | 2.51B | 1.80B | Net Debt |
| -177.07M | 3.39B | 2.62B | 2.40B | 2.22B | 1.51B | Total Liabilities |
| 8.59B | 7.81B | 5.77B | 4.38B | 2.51B | 1.80B | Stockholders Equity |
| 1.40B | 1.40B | 1.58B | 1.77B | 2.34B | 2.30B |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | ||||
| 10.14M | 4.60M | 29.95M | -117.59M | -347.93M | 110.55M | Operating Cash Flow |
| 27.20M | 14.07M | 29.95M | 91.78M | 138.91M | 110.75M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -2.00B | -2.24B | -1.22B | -508.77M | -133.03M | 2.12B | Financing Cash Flow |
| 1.90B | 2.23B | 1.14B | 460.07M | 27.49M | -2.05B |
New York Mortgage Technical Analysis
Neutral
6.46
Price Trends
6.23
Positive
6.14
Positive
5.90
Positive
Market Momentum
0.22
Positive
49.69
Neutral
33.20
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NYMT, the sentiment is Neutral. The current price of 6.46 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.54, above the 50-day MA of 6.23, and above the 200-day MA of 5.90, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of 0.22 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 49.69 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 33.20 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Neutral sentiment for NYMT.
New York Mortgage Risk Analysis
New York Mortgage disclosed 73 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. New York Mortgage reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 2 New Risks
1.
Our investments in a mortgage loan originator exposes us to additional risks. Q4, 2024
2.
The remedies available to us to resolve delinquent loans may not fully compensate us for any losses incurred and may result in lengthy and expensive legal processes. Q4, 2024
New York Mortgage Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
67 Neutral | $625.28M | 11.24 | 6.22% | 12.68% | -13.64% | ― | |
61 Neutral | $763.78M | 17.78 | 5.23% | 20.90% | 61.59% | ― | |
60 Neutral | $2.76B | 10.33 | 0.49% | 8508.28% | 5.95% | -17.56% | |
54 Neutral | $610.07M | 55.71 | 2.42% | 11.26% | -16.46% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $483.36M | 17.61 | 6.55% | 21.01% | 137.36% | ― | |
50 Neutral | $583.33M | ― | 2.63% | 12.29% | 33.94% | 96.99% | |
48 Neutral | $732.15M | 25.93 | 2.92% | 12.54% | 6.72% | 228.13% |
* Real Estate Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NYMT
New York Mortgage
6.42
1.25
24.18%
IVR
Invesco Mortgage
7.35
-0.24
-3.16%
RWT
Redwood
5.44
-0.23
-4.06%
ORC
Orchid Island Capital
6.92
-0.24
-3.35%
KREF
Kkr Real Estate Finance
8.97
0.29
3.34%
TRTX
Tpg Re Finance
7.59
0.11
1.47%
New York Mortgage Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Apr 30, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: 10.05%|
Next Earnings Date:Jul 30, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The earnings call presented a generally positive outlook, highlighting significant increases in investment activity, liquidity, and earnings. While there were some losses due to derivative instruments and market volatility, the company's strategic repositioning has resulted in improved financial metrics and a strong liquidity position.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Increased Investment Activity and Earnings
The company doubled its investment pace compared to the previous quarter, leading to recurring earnings consistent with a dividend of $0.20 per share. This was achieved by unlocking excess liquidity and investing in high-liquid Agency RMBS and short-duration credit assets in the residential BPL sector.
Improved Liquidity and Financial Position
Company excess liquidity increased by nearly 20% from the previous quarter, ending with $407 million of excess liquidity after adding $1.8 billion of investments.
Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD) Increase
EAD per share increased to $0.20 in Q1 2025 from $0.16 in the previous quarter, reflecting the strategic repositioning of the portfolio.
Net Unrealized Gains
Recognized net unrealized gains totaling $118.2 million, primarily due to higher valuations in the Agency RMBS portfolio and residential loan book.
Record Agency RMBS Purchases
The company purchased approximately $1.5 billion of Agency RMBS, almost four times more than the prior quarter.
Negative Updates
Unrealized Losses from Derivatives
There were unrealized losses of approximately $71.3 million from derivative instruments, mainly interest-rate swaps.
Modest Net Realized Losses
Recorded net realized losses of approximately $2.3 million from investment activity.
Impact of Market Volatility on Book Value
As of April month-end, adjusted book value is estimated to be down approximately 1.5%.
Non-recurring Expenses
Incurred $5.4 million in debt issuance costs due to the issuance of senior unsecured notes and securitizations, expensed during the quarter.
Company Guidance
During the New York Mortgage Trust's first-quarter 2025 earnings call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic updates. The firm reported an increase in recurring earnings consistent with its $0.20 per share dividend, thanks to strategic portfolio restructuring focused on high-liquidity Agency RMBS and short-duration credit assets in the residential BPL sector. Investment activity doubled from the previous quarter, with $1.8 billion added to the portfolio, and excess liquidity grew nearly 20% to $407 million. The company locked in an $83 million senior unsecured five-year note and completed two securitizations in the BPL sector. Their recourse leverage ratio decreased to 0.5 times from 1.1 times, and Agency RMBS investments now make up over 50% of assets. New non-GAAP financial measure, Earnings Available for Distribution (EAD), increased to $0.20 per share, up from $0.16 in the fourth quarter of 2024. Additionally, GAAP book value per share rose to $9.37, and adjusted book value per share to $10.43, reflecting a 1% increase since the end of 2024. The adjustments in the portfolio are seen as steps toward maintaining liquidity and positioning the company for robust future growth.New York Mortgage Corporate Events
Private Placements and FinancingBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
New York Mortgage Reports Strong Q1 2025 Results
Positive
Apr 30, 2025
New York Mortgage Trust reported its first-quarter 2025 financial results, highlighting a net income of $30.3 million attributable to common stockholders and a net interest income of $33.1 million. The company increased its investment activities, purchasing $1.5 billion in Agency RMBS and $396.8 million in residential loans, while also issuing $82.5 million in senior notes and completing two securitizations of residential loans. CEO Jason Serrano noted that the strategic portfolio restructuring has bolstered the company’s earnings and balance sheet strength, positioning it to capitalize on market opportunities.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.