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Novavax (NVAX)
NASDAQ:NVAX
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Novavax
(NASDAQ:NVAX)
34Underperform
Positive Factors
Market Potential
The potential combination of Novavax's Covid vaccine with high-dose flu vaccines represents a significant potential upside for Novavax.
Vaccine Safety
The Novavax vaccine resulted in about half as many negative symptoms compared to current mRNA vaccines, which could be advantageous in the Covid vaccination landscape.
Negative Factors
Financial Risk
The biggest near-term risk for Novavax is potentially missing out on the $175M milestone payment from Sanofi which is triggered upon approval of the BLA.
Regulatory Challenges
The Novavax Covid vaccine is still waiting on full approval, which remains a concern.
Regulatory Risks
Lack of formal BLA adds regulatory risk for COVID-19/influenza combination programs which use Nuvaxovid components, including internal CIC program and Sanofi’s CIC program.
Novavax (NVAX) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$965.07M
Dividend YieldN/A
Average Volume (3M)5.24M
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)1.55
Revenue Growth-30.65%
EPS Growth77.62%
CountryUS
Employees952
SectorHealthcare
Sector Strength66
IndustryBiotechnology
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-1.32
Shares Outstanding160,844,200
10 Day Avg. Volume7,723,072
30 Day Avg. Volume5,243,720
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)1.79
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)-1.80
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market CapN/A
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross ProfitN/A
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$14.25Price Target Upside137.50% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering4
Novavax Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNovavax, Inc., a biotechnology company, focuses on the discovery, development, and commercialization of vaccines to prevent serious infectious diseases and address health needs. The company's vaccine candidates include NVX-CoV2373, a coronavirus vaccine candidate that is in two Phase III trials, one Phase IIb trial, and one Phase I/II trial; NanoFlu, a nanoparticle seasonal quadrivalent influenza vaccine candidate that is in Phase 3 clinical trial; and ResVax, a respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) fusion (F) protein nanoparticle vaccine candidate. It is also developing RSV F vaccine that is in Phase II clinical trial for older adults (60 years and older), as well as that is in Phase I clinical trial for pediatrics. It has a collaboration agreement with Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited for the development, manufacturing, and commercialization of NVX-CoV2373, a COVID-19 vaccine candidate. Novavax, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Gaithersburg, Maryland.
How the Company Makes MoneyNovavax generates revenue primarily through the sale of its vaccines to governments and health organizations around the world. The company earns money from product sales, government contracts, and grants, as well as collaborations and licensing agreements with other pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies. A significant portion of its revenue is derived from sales of its COVID-19 vaccine, particularly through agreements with various countries and international health agencies. Additionally, partnerships with organizations such as the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovations (CEPI) and funding from government entities have been crucial in supporting Novavax's research and development efforts, contributing to its overall earnings.
Novavax Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Novavax is facing significant financial challenges, with persistent losses and negative equity. While there is some revenue growth, the company's profitability and liquidity remain major concerns. The cash flow situation is slightly improved, but still negative, casting doubts on long-term sustainability without strategic financial restructuring or profitability improvements.Income Statement
Novavax has shown some revenue improvement from 2023 to 2024, with a growth rate of approximately 22.58%. However, the company is still struggling with profitability, as indicated by negative EBIT and net income margins. Gross profit margin is reasonably positive at around 70.26% for 2024. The persistent losses suggest challenges in cost management and operational efficiency.35
Negative
Balance Sheet
The balance sheet is concerning, with negative stockholders' equity indicating financial instability. The debt-to-equity ratio is not meaningful due to negative equity. Despite an improvement in cash reserves, overall liabilities exceed total assets, leading to a precarious financial position.25
Negative
Cash Flow
Novavax's cash flow situation shows some improvement, with operating cash flow reducing in negativity, but free cash flow remains negative. The free cash flow to net income ratio is not meaningful given the negative net income. Financing activities have provided a cash influx, but sustainability is a concern.30
Negative
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 682.16M | 556.38M | 1.60B | 1.15B | 475.60M | Gross Profit |
| 479.42M | 212.61M | 696.31M | 1.13B | -271.43M | EBIT |
| -248.93M | -566.51M | -644.74M | -1.69B | -416.72M | EBITDA |
| -108.04M | -487.39M | -604.71M | -1.68B | -398.23M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| -187.50M | -545.06M | -657.94M | -1.74B | -427.50M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 923.12M | 568.50M | 1.34B | 1.52B | 711.05M | Total Assets |
| 1.56B | 1.80B | 2.26B | 2.58B | 1.58B | Total Debt |
| 230.42M | 229.08M | 549.78M | 453.99M | 322.04M | Net Debt |
| -299.81M | -339.42M | -787.10M | -1.06B | -231.36M | Total Liabilities |
| 2.18B | 2.51B | 2.89B | 2.93B | 955.27M | Stockholders Equity |
| -623.84M | -716.93M | -634.08M | -351.67M | 627.21M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -100.32M | -772.77M | -508.92M | 265.46M | -97.16M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -87.26M | -713.97M | -415.94M | 322.95M | -42.54M | Investing Cash Flow |
| -204.04M | -58.81M | -92.98M | 100.15M | -377.78M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 260.58M | 4.47M | 324.99M | 461.71M | 984.76M |
Novavax Technical Analysis
Negative
6.00
Price Trends
7.38
Negative
8.09
Negative
10.03
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.42
Negative
41.41
Neutral
60.24
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NVAX, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 6 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 6.53, below the 50-day MA of 7.38, and below the 200-day MA of 10.03, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.42 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 41.41 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 60.24 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NVAX.
Novavax Risk Analysis
Novavax disclosed 62 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Novavax reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Novavax Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (50)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
68 Neutral | $125.57B | 15.71 | 9.05% | 7.63% | 8.77% | 272.80% | |
54 Neutral | $23.70B | ― | -3.38% | ― | -27.64% | -172.62% | |
50 Neutral | $5.51B | 2.95 | -43.70% | 2.78% | 16.94% | 3.59% | |
49 Neutral | $78.48M | ― | -114.71% | ― | 288.94% | 39.45% | |
48 Neutral | $9.54B | ― | -28.77% | ― | -52.75% | 25.00% | |
43 Neutral | $1.71B | ― | -46.67% | ― | 18.82% | 19.76% | |
34 Underperform | $965.07M | ― | 30.06% | ― | -30.65% | 77.62% |
* Healthcare Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NVAX
Novavax
6.00
1.93
47.42%
PFE
Pfizer
22.14
-2.57
-10.40%
NVCR
NovoCure
15.58
3.75
31.70%
VXRT
Vaxart
0.34
-0.42
-55.26%
MRNA
Moderna
24.72
-79.74
-76.34%
BNTX
BioNTech SE
98.76
10.75
12.21%
Novavax Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date: Feb 27, 2025 | % Change Since: -18.03% | Next Earnings Date: May 7, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlights several positive strategic moves by Novavax, including a significant partnership with Sanofi, financial improvements, and new pipeline initiatives. However, these are counterbalanced by challenges such as declining revenues, dependence on Sanofi for future success, and regulatory uncertainties.Highlights
Strategic Partnership with Sanofi
Novavax announced a wide-ranging partnership agreement with Sanofi, receiving an initial cash payment of $500 million upfront and a $70 million equity investment. Sanofi will take the lead commercialization role for Novavax's COVID-19 vaccine starting this year.
Financial Improvements and Cost Reductions
Novavax reduced its current liabilities by $1.3 billion over the last two years and significantly reduced combined R&D and SG&A expenses. They are on track to decrease expenses by approximately 85% by 2027 compared to their 2022 baseline.
New Early-Stage Pipeline Initiatives
Novavax added four new early-stage assets focused on C. Diff, varicella-zoster virus, pandemic flu, and a triple RSV combination. Preclinical data from these programs are expected in the second half of the year.
Sale of Czech Republic Facility
The sale of the Czech Republic manufacturing facility for $200 million helped reduce annual operating costs by approximately $80 million.
Lowlights
Revenue Decline
In Q4 2024, Novavax reported total revenue of $88 million compared to $291 million in the same period in 2023, reflecting a significant decline.
Dependence on Sanofi for Future Revenues
Novavax's path to profitability relies heavily on the successful commercialization and execution by Sanofi, including achieving milestone payments and royalties.
Uncertainty in Regulatory Approvals
There is ongoing work to gain regulatory approval for the COVID-19 vaccine, with the BLA action date set for April. The outcome of regulatory interactions remains uncertain.
Company Guidance
During the Novavax Fourth Quarter 2024 Financial Results call, the company highlighted several key metrics and strategic developments. Novavax reported total revenue of $682 million for the year, with $190 million from product sales and $492 million from licensing and royalties. They successfully reduced their R&D and SG&A expenses by 40% compared to 2023, targeting further reductions in 2025. The company achieved significant milestones, including the sale of a Czech Republic manufacturing facility for $200 million, which contributed to reducing operating costs by $80 million annually. Novavax also decreased current liabilities by $1.3 billion over two years. Moving forward, the company anticipates 2025 as a transition year, focusing on a partnership with Sanofi, which includes potential milestone payments totaling $225 million and royalties in the high-teens to low 20% range. The company aims for profitability by 2027 with a breakeven revenue target of $225 million, supported by continued cost reductions and strategic partnerships.Novavax Corporate Events
Executive/Board ChangesBusiness Operations and Strategy
Novavax Announces Board Changes and Strategic Shift
Neutral
Mar 11, 2025
On March 10, 2025, Novavax announced the resignation of James F. Young, Ph.D. from its Board of Directors, with no disagreements cited. Margaret G. McGlynn was appointed as the new Chairperson, and John W. Shiver, Ph.D. joined as a Class III director and member of the Research and Development Committee. Dr. Shiver brings over 30 years of experience in vaccine development, enhancing the board’s expertise. This transition marks a strategic shift for Novavax, as it continues to focus on partnerships and leveraging its technology platform for growth.
Product-Related AnnouncementsFinancial DisclosuresRegulatory Filings and Compliance
Novavax Faces Contract Termination with Canadian Government
Negative
Mar 11, 2025
On March 7, 2025, Novavax received a notice terminating its advanced purchase agreement with the Canadian government due to the company’s failure to obtain regulatory approval for its COVID-19 vaccine by the end of 2024. As a result, Novavax will recognize $576 million as product revenue in the first quarter of 2025, but must refund $28 million in advanced payments to Canada. Additionally, a proposed memorandum of understanding related to in-country commitments is no longer feasible, allowing Novavax to release related funds.
Product-Related AnnouncementsBusiness Operations and Strategy
Novavax to Present Strategic Plans at Health Conference
Neutral
Mar 4, 2025
On March 4, 2025, Novavax will update investors at the TD Cowen 45th Annual Health Care Conference about its strategic and business plans, including the transition of COVID-19 vaccine commercialization to Sanofi for the 2025-2026 season. The company aims to advance its vaccine pipeline and expand partnerships, but faces challenges such as regulatory approvals and manufacturing constraints, which could impact its financial and operational performance.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.