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National Cinemedia
(NASDAQ:NCMI)
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Rating:60Neutral
Price Target:
$4.00
▲(6.10% Upside)
Action:Reiterated
Date:08/12/26
The score reflects improving operations and cash generation with near-term positive guidance, supported by a currently repaired balance sheet and mildly constructive technicals. It is held back by contracting TTM revenue, still-negative net profitability (negative P/E), and added leverage risk from the all-cash Captivate acquisition and related capital return pause.
Positive Factors
Platform expansion via Captivate acquisition
The Captivate deal materially broadens NCM's addressable inventory and audience contexts beyond cinemas into high-attention lobbies and elevators, enabling cross-selling, programmatic scale and richer data integrations. This structural expansion diversifies revenue sources and strengthens long-term growth optionality.
Negative Factors
Acquisition adds leverage and pauses shareholder returns
Funding the Captivate purchase with substantial term debt materially raises financial leverage and interest obligations versus recent low-debt levels. The paused dividend signals a shift in capital allocation toward debt repayment and integration, reducing near-term shareholder optionality and increasing execution risk on deleveraging plans.
Read all positive and negative factors
Positive Factors
Negative Factors
Platform expansion via Captivate acquisition
The Captivate deal materially broadens NCM's addressable inventory and audience contexts beyond cinemas into high-attention lobbies and elevators, enabling cross-selling, programmatic scale and richer data integrations. This structural expansion diversifies revenue sources and strengthens long-term growth optionality.
Read all positive factors
National Cinemedia (NCMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)
Market Cap
$269.04M
Dividend Yield4.2%
Average Volume (3M)460.31K
Price to Earnings (P/E)―
Beta (1Y)0.61
Revenue Growth5.78%
EPS Growth61.23%
CountryUS
Employees248
SectorCommunication Services
Sector Strength97
IndustryAdvertising Agencies
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)-0.09
Shares Outstanding94,070,440
10 Day Avg. Volume495,485
30 Day Avg. Volume460,312
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG Ratio0.68
Price to Book (P/B)0.89
Price to Sales (P/S)1.51
P/FCF Ratio130.85
Enterprise Value/Market Cap<0.01
Enterprise Value/Revenue<0.01
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit<0.01
Enterprise Value/Ebitda<0.01
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$4.63Price Target Upside22.68% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering2
EPS Forecast (FY)-0.07
Revenue Forecast (FY)$261.76M
National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company Description
National CineMedia, Inc., through its subsidiary, National CineMedia, LLC, operates cinema advertising network in North America. The company engages in the sale of advertising to national, regional, and local businesses in Noovie, a cinema adverti...
How the Company Makes Money
NCMI primarily makes money by selling advertising and sponsorship inventory tied to the moviegoing experience. Its core revenue stream is the sale of national and local/regional advertising placements that run on screens before feature films (the ...
National Cinemedia Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:Aug 11, 2026
(Q2-2026)
| % Change Since: |
Next Earnings Date:Nov 09, 2026
Earnings Call Sentiment Positive
The call conveyed a constructive strategic growth narrative: strong Q2 operational performance with double-digit revenue growth, notable attendance recovery (+19.3% YoY), substantial local and programmatic momentum, and an acquisitive move (Captivate) that meaningfully expands scale, audience reach and margin profile. Offsetting risks include near-term monetization headwinds from film mix and FIFA-related budget shifts, an operating loss and negative free cash flow (albeit improved), increased exhibitor fees, and higher leverage and capital allocation constraints tied to the $275M debt-funded acquisition. Integration execution and near-term visibility (no forward guidance) are additional uncertainties. On balance, the highlights (growth, strategic acquisition, margin-accretive asset with synergies, strong local growth and programmatic progress) materially outweigh the disclosed lowlights, though the acquisition increases short-term financial risk.Positive Updates
Strategic Acquisition of Captivate
Entered definitive agreement to acquire Captivate, adding ~26,000 digital screens across >11,000 buildings and ~9,700 residential locations; combined platform to exceed 48,000 digital screens across 185 DMAs (including all top 100 markets) and expand reach across theaters, office and residential environments.
Negative Updates
June Monetization Headwinds and Film Mix
June slate skewed toward R-rated/horror breakout films that historically generate lower advertising yield; some mainstream studio releases (e.g., Supergirl, Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu) underperformed, and FIFA World Cup shifted some ad budgets, moderating utilization and advertising yield in June.
Read all updates
Q2-2026 Updates
Positive
Negative
Strategic Acquisition of Captivate
Entered definitive agreement to acquire Captivate, adding ~26,000 digital screens across >11,000 buildings and ~9,700 residential locations; combined platform to exceed 48,000 digital screens across 185 DMAs (including all top 100 markets) and expand reach across theaters, office and residential environments.
Read all positive updates
Company Guidance
Management did not provide a forward outlook while the Captivate acquisition is pending (expected to close in H2 2026), but laid out detailed transaction and near‑term financial expectations: Captivate is being acquired for an enterprise value of $275 million (~10x pro forma EBITDA), with Captivate’s 2025 revenue of ~$64M, adjusted EBITDA of $19.3M (30% margin), roughly $3M annual CapEx, and at least $3.5M of run‑rate cost synergies expected in year 1; the deal will be financed with $275M of new term debt and management expects pro forma net leverage at close of ~3.9x, will pause the dividend and buybacks, and expects meaningful deleveraging and free cash flow to repay debt over 2–3 years. NCM reiterated Q2 results within guidance: total revenue $58.4M (+12.7% YoY), advertising revenue $54.4M (+14.3%), national ~$45M (+9%), local $9.5M (+48.4%) with average local revenue per attendee $0.07 (+24%), attendance +19.3% YoY, programmatic revenue +45% YoY, adjusted OIBDA $2.1M (3x YoY), operating loss ~$12.8M, unlevered free cash flow -$2.1M (70% improvement YoY), cash ~$46.1M, total debt ~$12M, and 63k shares repurchased for ~$200k at an average $3.10; management also expects to realize ~$11M of annualized operational savings (up to ~$6M by end of 2026), has realized $2.7M YTD and incurred $2.7M of one‑time transformation costs.National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Income Statement
46
Neutral
Balance Sheet
68
Positive
Cash Flow
57
Neutral
| Breakdown | TTM | Dec 2025 | Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Income Statement | ||||||
| Total Revenue | 249.00M | 243.20M | 240.80M | 165.20M | 249.20M | 114.60M |
| Gross Profit | 134.50M | 73.80M | 72.80M | 85.10M | 131.30M | 37.70M |
| EBITDA | 30.00M | 27.90M | 22.00M | 750.10M | 45.00M | -18.00M |
| Net Income | -7.60M | -10.60M | -22.30M | 705.20M | -28.70M | -48.70M |
Balance Sheet | ||||||
| Total Assets | 446.30M | 568.60M | 568.60M | 567.70M | 792.40M | 817.40M |
| Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | 43.10M | 75.10M | 75.20M | 34.60M | 64.50M | 101.50M |
| Total Debt | 21.90M | 22.50M | 24.20M | 16.00M | 1.14B | 1.12B |
| Total Liabilities | 112.00M | 157.40M | 157.40M | 133.20M | 1.26B | 1.20B |
| Stockholders Equity | 334.30M | 411.20M | 411.20M | 434.50M | -515.30M | -526.70M |
Cash Flow | ||||||
| Free Cash Flow | 21.60M | 2.80M | 54.50M | -10.00M | -50.20M | -100.90M |
| Operating Cash Flow | 25.40M | 8.40M | 60.30M | -6.70M | -47.30M | -95.20M |
| Investing Cash Flow | -14.10M | -15.40M | -5.70M | 32.60M | -400.00K | -5.40M |
| Financing Cash Flow | -5.50M | -33.50M | -14.10M | -52.10M | 10.30M | 21.50M |
National Cinemedia Technical Analysis
Negative
3.77
Price Trends
3.72
Negative
3.50
Negative
3.61
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.20
Positive
35.09
Neutral
20.39
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 3.77 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 3.75, above the 50-day MA of 3.72, and above the 200-day MA of 3.61, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.20 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.09 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 20.39 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCMI.
National Cinemedia Risk Analysis
National Cinemedia disclosed 35 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Cinemedia reported the most risks in the "Finance & Corporate" category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
National Cinemedia Peers Comparison
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (60)
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
60 Neutral | $48.67B | 4.58 | -11.27% | 4.14% | 2.83% | -41.78% | |
60 Neutral | $269.04M | -30.79 | -2.11% | 3.18% | 5.78% | 61.23% | |
58 Neutral | $421.19M | -33.19 | -2.67% | ― | -2.40% | -1813.77% | |
55 Neutral | $420.31M | -1.54 | -51.48% | ― | 2.24% | 18.11% | |
50 Neutral | $1.19B | -5.45 | 8.55% | ― | -2.53% | -47.04% | |
45 Neutral | $24.91M | -0.23 | -870.86% | ― | -32.63% | 42.21% | |
31 Underperform | $3.59M | -3.10 | -43.19% | ― | -8.74% | 88.46% |
* Communication Services Sector Average
NCMI
National Cinemedia
2.86
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-34.16%
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National Cinemedia Corporate Events
Business Operations and StrategyStock BuybackDividendsM&A TransactionsPrivate Placements and Financing
National CineMedia Acquires Captivate, Expands Ad Platform
Positive
Aug 11, 2026
On August 10 and 11, 2026, National CineMedia agreed to acquire Captivate Holdings, the leading digital video elevator and lobby advertising operator in North America, for an enterprise value of $275 million in an all-cash deal funded by new term ...
Business Operations and StrategyExecutive/Board ChangesDividendsFinancial DisclosuresShareholder Meetings
National CineMedia Shareholders Approve Proposals at Annual Meeting
Neutral
May 12, 2026
National CineMedia’s shareholders approved all proposals at the May 7, 2026 annual meeting, including the election of eight directors, an advisory vote backing executive compensation and the ratification of Grant Thornton LLP as auditor for ...
Glossary
BuyA stock rated as a "Buy" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
HoldA stock rated as a "Hold" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly compelling nor unfavorable for investment. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
SellA stock rated as a "Sell" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests the stock may deliver lower returns compared to other stocks in the same sector or market index. Note: This is not investment advice; please consult a financial advisor before making investment decisions.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.