National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

• Market Cap: $489.44M
• Dividend Yield: 1.16%
• Average Volume (3M): 827.38K
• Price to Earnings (P/E): ―
• Beta (1Y): 0.85
• Revenue Growth: 42.01%
• EPS Growth: -100.56%
• Country: US
• Employees: 254
• Sector: Communication Services
• Sector Strength: 86
• Industry: Advertising Agencies
• EPS (TTM): -0.32
• Shares Outstanding: 94,304,390
• 10 Day Avg. Volume: 732,972
• 30 Day Avg. Volume: 827,381
• PEG Ratio: -1.58
• Price to Book (P/B): 1.35
• Price to Sales (P/S): 0.00
• P/FCF Ratio: 13.33
• Enterprise Value/Market Cap: 0.92
• Enterprise Value/Revenue: 0.48
• Enterprise Value/Gross Profit: 4.84
• Enterprise Value/Ebitda: 1.71
• 1Y Price Target: $7.20
• Price Target Upside: 36.88% Upside
• Rating Consensus: Strong Buy
• Number of Analyst Covering: 5

• Rating: 50 Neutral
• Price Target: $5.50 ▲(4.56%Upside)

National CineMedia's overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, with poor profitability and valuation concerns being the most significant factors. Recent strategic initiatives and improved cash flows offer some positivity, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to historical volatility and external market pressures.

Positive Factors

Advertising Capabilities

Programmatic advertising and a self-serve platform are efforts gaining adoption from advertisers and enabling NCM to access budgets that predominantly transact in programmatic channels.

Financial Strategy

NCM’s reinstated tax-deferred dividend, coupled with share repurchases, signals to investors that the company intends to prioritize capital allocation as it returns to growth.

Strategic Partnerships

The new agreement between NCM and AMC Theatres marks a significant structural win for NCM investors, extending AMC’s commitment and unlocking meaningful upside.

Negative Factors

External Challenges

The resolution of legacy litigation and termination of complex joint venture agreements simplify governance and remove legal overhangs for NCM.

Financial Performance

Q1 results aligned with internal expectations but missed Street estimates due to weak content, delayed ad spend, and volatile attendance tied to Snow White’s underperformance.

Market Conditions

Tariffs, government spending cutbacks, and general uncertainty are limiting ad spend for some important categories, with some tariff impacted categories noted as pulling back spend.

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company Description

National CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) is a leading cinema advertising network in the United States. The company specializes in providing in-theater and digital marketing solutions to advertisers and entertainment companies. NCMI operates the largest digital in-theater network in North America, delivering premium video programming, including national and local advertisements, across thousands of movie screens. Its core services include on-screen advertising, lobby promotions, and integrated marketing campaigns designed to reach and engage movie-going audiences.

How the Company Makes Money

National CineMedia generates its revenue primarily through the sale of advertising space within its cinema network. The company's key revenue streams include on-screen advertising, lobby promotions, and digital marketing solutions. On-screen advertising involves the display of commercials and branded content before the start of a movie, providing advertisers with a captive audience. Lobby promotions involve interactive displays and product sampling opportunities in theater lobbies. Additionally, NCMI offers integrated marketing campaigns that leverage both in-theater and online channels to extend advertiser reach. Significant partnerships with major theater chains such as AMC, Regal, and Cinemark enhance NCMI's ability to deliver a wide audience to advertisers, further bolstering its revenue potential.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary

The financial performance of National CineMedia is challenged, with declining revenues and profitability as seen in the income statement. The balance sheet shows some improvement in equity but is still weighed down by high debt levels, raising concerns about long-term stability. Cash flow improvements indicate better liquidity management, but historical volatility remains a concern.

Income Statement

National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.

Balance Sheet

The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.

Cash Flow

Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.

Breakdown
TTM	Dec 2024	Dec 2023	Dec 2022	Dec 2021	Dec 2020
Income Statement		Total Revenue
238.30M	240.80M	165.20M	249.20M	114.60M	90.40M
	Gross Profit
92.70M	115.20M	85.10M	222.00M	96.20M	80.10M
	EBIT
-20.80M	-19.50M	-27.30M	13.40M	-68.60M	-59.30M
	EBITDA
25.60M	-1.30M	750.10M	45.00M	-18.20M	129.00M
	Net Income Common Stockholders
-18.30M	-22.30M	705.20M	-28.60M	-113.50M	-126.30M
Balance Sheet		Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
210.00M	75.20M	34.60M	62.40M	102.50M	181.80M
	Total Assets
1.20B	568.60M	567.70M	792.40M	817.40M	886.20M
	Total Debt
1.05B	10.00M	16.00M	1.12B	1.10B	1.05B
	Net Debt
861.10M	-65.10M	-24.60M	1.06B	996.30M	872.00M
	Total Liabilities
1.34B	157.40M	133.20M	1.26B	1.20B	1.15B
	Stockholders Equity
-396.60M	411.20M	434.50M	-515.30M	-383.50M	-268.60M
Cash Flow		Free Cash Flow
37.20M	54.50M	-10.00M	-50.20M	-100.90M	47.30M
	Operating Cash Flow
42.20M	60.30M	-6.70M	-47.30M	-95.20M	55.30M
	Investing Cash Flow
-5.10M	-5.70M	32.60M	-400.00K	-5.40M	15.60M
	Financing Cash Flow
-34.20M	-14.10M	-52.10M	10.30M	21.50M	53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

• Technical Analysis Sentiment: Positive
• Last Price: 5.26
• 50DMA: Negative
• 100DMA: Negative
• 200DMA: Negative
• MACD: Negative
• RSI: Neutral
• STOCH: Neutral

Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.16, below the 50-day MA of 5.49, and below the 200-day MA of 6.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Name	Overall Rating	Market Cap	P/E Ratio	ROE	Dividend Yield	Revenue Growth	EPS Growth
NEXN	81 Outperform	$684.15M	15.94	8.57%	―	10.36%	―
EEX	69 Neutral	$932.65M	291.30	1.62%	1.28%	4.87%	―
DLX	68 Neutral	$665.28M	11.93	9.10%	8.07%	-2.69%	61.73%
Sector *	61 Neutral	$14.60B	5.88	-4.32%	3.68%	2.75%	-30.55%
NCMI	50 Neutral	$489.44M	―	-4.73%	1.16%	42.01%	-100.56%
CCO	48 Neutral	$566.26M	―	4.92%	―	-17.54%	66.05%
ADV	47 Neutral	$421.61M	―	-42.89%	―	-13.81%	-433.86%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

National Cinemedia Extends Agreement with AMC Theatres

On May 1, 2025, National CineMedia held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where all proposals, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved. The company reported a decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year but maintained its financial guidance. A significant development was the extension of a long-term agreement with AMC Theatres, enhancing NCM’s advertising platform and financial outlook by aligning payment structures with performance metrics. This agreement also resolved ongoing litigation, eliminating potential liabilities and streamlining operations.

National CineMedia Reintroduces Dividend and New Ad Offering

On March 13, 2025, National CineMedia announced the reintroduction of a quarterly dividend and the launch of a new advertising offering during their Investor Day Event. The company declared a cash dividend of $0.03 per share, payable on April 7, 2025, reflecting its improved financial position and strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.