tiprankstipranks
Trending News
More News >
National Cinemedia (NCMI)
NASDAQ:NCMI

National Cinemedia (NCMI) AI Stock Analysis

Compare
574 Followers

Top Page

NC

National Cinemedia

(NASDAQ:NCMI)

Rating:50Neutral
Price Target:
$5.50
▲(4.56%Upside)
National CineMedia's overall stock score reflects significant financial and operational challenges, with poor profitability and valuation concerns being the most significant factors. Recent strategic initiatives and improved cash flows offer some positivity, but the overall outlook remains cautious due to historical volatility and external market pressures.
Positive Factors
Advertising Capabilities
Programmatic advertising and a self-serve platform are efforts gaining adoption from advertisers and enabling NCM to access budgets that predominantly transact in programmatic channels.
Financial Strategy
NCM’s reinstated tax-deferred dividend, coupled with share repurchases, signals to investors that the company intends to prioritize capital allocation as it returns to growth.
Strategic Partnerships
The new agreement between NCM and AMC Theatres marks a significant structural win for NCM investors, extending AMC’s commitment and unlocking meaningful upside.
Negative Factors
External Challenges
The resolution of legacy litigation and termination of complex joint venture agreements simplify governance and remove legal overhangs for NCM.
Financial Performance
Q1 results aligned with internal expectations but missed Street estimates due to weak content, delayed ad spend, and volatile attendance tied to Snow White’s underperformance.
Market Conditions
Tariffs, government spending cutbacks, and general uncertainty are limiting ad spend for some important categories, with some tariff impacted categories noted as pulling back spend.

National Cinemedia (NCMI) vs. SPDR S&P 500 ETF (SPY)

National Cinemedia Business Overview & Revenue Model

Company DescriptionNational CineMedia, Inc. (NCMI) is a leading cinema advertising network in the United States. The company specializes in providing in-theater and digital marketing solutions to advertisers and entertainment companies. NCMI operates the largest digital in-theater network in North America, delivering premium video programming, including national and local advertisements, across thousands of movie screens. Its core services include on-screen advertising, lobby promotions, and integrated marketing campaigns designed to reach and engage movie-going audiences.
How the Company Makes MoneyNational CineMedia generates its revenue primarily through the sale of advertising space within its cinema network. The company's key revenue streams include on-screen advertising, lobby promotions, and digital marketing solutions. On-screen advertising involves the display of commercials and branded content before the start of a movie, providing advertisers with a captive audience. Lobby promotions involve interactive displays and product sampling opportunities in theater lobbies. Additionally, NCMI offers integrated marketing campaigns that leverage both in-theater and online channels to extend advertiser reach. Significant partnerships with major theater chains such as AMC, Regal, and Cinemark enhance NCMI's ability to deliver a wide audience to advertisers, further bolstering its revenue potential.

National Cinemedia Earnings Call Summary

Earnings Call Date:May 06, 2025
(Q1-2025)
|
% Change Since: -8.68%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 11, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call highlighted several strategic initiatives and partnerships, notably the extension with AMC Theaters and the introduction of new products, suggesting a positive long-term outlook. However, the quarter was marked by revenue declines and challenges in the advertising market, primarily due to external factors like tariff uncertainties and underperforming films.
Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Introduction of New Products
NCM introduced Bullseye and Blueprint, new products in their NCMx suite, which offer dynamic hyper-localized messaging and identify high-intent consumers, respectively.
AMC Theaters Contract Extension
NCM agreed to a five-year extension of their contract with AMC Theaters through 2042, which includes exclusive rights to lobby advertising and a revised payment structure tied to attendance and advertising revenue.
Positive Attendance Trends
NCM's year-to-date network attendance through April increased by 6% compared to the same period last year, buoyed by strong performances from films like A Minecraft Movie.
Strong Upcoming Film Slate
The second half of 2025 is expected to benefit from a strong lineup of film releases, including anticipated titles like Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning and How to Train Your Dragon.
Expansion of Programmatic Advertising
NCM's programmatic advertising business gained traction, with programmatic revenue contributing 3% of total revenue in Q1 and pacing ahead in Q2.
Negative Updates
Revenue Decline
NCM's first quarter 2025 total revenue was $34.9 million, a 7% year-over-year decline from $37.4 million.
Box Office Performance
The first quarter box office generated $1.4 billion, representing an 11.6% decline compared to the same period last year due to a weaker slate and underperformance of high-profile titles.
Advertising Market Challenges
There was a reduction in government ad spend and delayed ad spend decisions in response to tariff uncertainty, affecting advertising revenue.
Negative Adjusted OIBDA
Adjusted OIBDA was negative $9 million, reflecting reduced theater attendance and investments in sales and operations.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of fiscal year 2025, National CineMedia (NCM) reported total revenue of $34.9 million, within its guidance range of $34 million to $36 million, but reflecting a 7% year-over-year decline due to a 5% decrease in attendance and a 37% attendance drop in March. The box office generated approximately $1.4 billion, an 11.6% decline compared to the same period last year, attributed to a weaker film slate and underperformance of major titles like "Snow White." However, attendance rebounded in April with "A Minecraft Movie," which set a record for the largest debut ever for a video game feature, contributing to a 6% increase in year-to-date network attendance through April. The company saw a shift towards the scatter market, with 42% of national on-screen revenue attributed to this segment, compared to 29% in the prior year. Adjusted OIBDA was negative $9 million, aligning with guidance, while operating expenses decreased by 2% year-over-year. NCM introduced new products, Bullseye and Blueprint, as part of its NCMx suite, enhancing its advertising capabilities. The company's agreement with AMC Theaters was extended through 2042, adjusting payment structures and securing exclusive advertising rights. Looking ahead, NCM anticipates $56 million to $61 million in second-quarter revenue and adjusted OIBDA between $2.5 million and $7.5 million, despite ongoing tariff-related uncertainties.

National Cinemedia Financial Statement Overview

Summary
The financial performance of National CineMedia is challenged, with declining revenues and profitability as seen in the income statement. The balance sheet shows some improvement in equity but is still weighed down by high debt levels, raising concerns about long-term stability. Cash flow improvements indicate better liquidity management, but historical volatility remains a concern.
Income Statement
40
Negative
National Cinemedia's income statement shows significant volatility with declining revenues and profitability over the years. The gross profit margin and net profit margin are adversely affected, with net income consistently negative, indicating core operational challenges. Revenue has decreased significantly from 2019 to 2023, reflecting challenges in maintaining market share or sales growth. EBIT and EBITDA margins are negative, underscoring operational inefficiencies.
Balance Sheet
50
Neutral
The balance sheet reflects a mixed picture with substantial improvement in stockholders' equity from negative to positive in recent years, highlighting some recovery. However, the high debt levels and past negative equity raise concerns about long-term financial stability. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved but remains a point of risk due to potential leverage issues. The equity ratio has shown improvement, but the historical negative equity indicates past financial distress.
Cash Flow
60
Neutral
Cash flow analysis reveals notable improvements with positive free cash flow and operating cash flow in the latest year, suggesting better cash management. Despite prior years of negative free cash flow, the recent trend shows recovery potential. The operating cash flow to net income ratio indicates better cash conversion, although previous years' negative cash flows highlight historical challenges.
Breakdown
TTMDec 2024Dec 2023Dec 2022Dec 2021Dec 2020
Income StatementTotal Revenue
238.30M240.80M165.20M249.20M114.60M90.40M
Gross Profit
92.70M115.20M85.10M222.00M96.20M80.10M
EBIT
-20.80M-19.50M-27.30M13.40M-68.60M-59.30M
EBITDA
25.60M-1.30M750.10M45.00M-18.20M129.00M
Net Income Common Stockholders
-18.30M-22.30M705.20M-28.60M-113.50M-126.30M
Balance SheetCash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments
210.00M75.20M34.60M62.40M102.50M181.80M
Total Assets
1.20B568.60M567.70M792.40M817.40M886.20M
Total Debt
1.05B10.00M16.00M1.12B1.10B1.05B
Net Debt
861.10M-65.10M-24.60M1.06B996.30M872.00M
Total Liabilities
1.34B157.40M133.20M1.26B1.20B1.15B
Stockholders Equity
-396.60M411.20M434.50M-515.30M-383.50M-268.60M
Cash FlowFree Cash Flow
37.20M54.50M-10.00M-50.20M-100.90M47.30M
Operating Cash Flow
42.20M60.30M-6.70M-47.30M-95.20M55.30M
Investing Cash Flow
-5.10M-5.70M32.60M-400.00K-5.40M15.60M
Financing Cash Flow
-34.20M-14.10M-52.10M10.30M21.50M53.50M

National Cinemedia Technical Analysis

Technical Analysis Sentiment
Positive
Last Price5.26
Price Trends
50DMA
5.49
Negative
100DMA
5.93
Negative
200DMA
6.35
Negative
Market Momentum
MACD
-0.08
Negative
RSI
49.51
Neutral
STOCH
38.01
Neutral
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCMI, the sentiment is Positive. The current price of 5.26 is above the 20-day moving average (MA) of 5.16, below the 50-day MA of 5.49, and below the 200-day MA of 6.35, indicating a neutral trend. The MACD of -0.08 indicates Negative momentum. The RSI at 49.51 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 38.01 is Neutral, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Positive sentiment for NCMI.

National Cinemedia Risk Analysis

National Cinemedia disclosed 34 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. National Cinemedia reported the most risks in the “Finance & Corporate” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 1 New Risks
1.
We are subject to risks from changes to regulations, government funding, trade policies and tariffs imposed by governments that impact our advertising clients. Q4, 2024

National Cinemedia Peers Comparison

Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (61)
Financial Indicators
Name
Overall Rating
Market Cap
P/E Ratio
ROE
Dividend Yield
Revenue Growth
EPS Growth
81
Outperform
$684.15M15.948.57%10.36%
EEEEX
69
Neutral
$932.65M291.301.62%1.28%4.87%
DLDLX
68
Neutral
$665.28M11.939.10%8.07%-2.69%61.73%
61
Neutral
$14.60B5.88-4.32%3.68%2.75%-30.55%
50
Neutral
$489.44M-4.73%1.16%42.01%-100.56%
CCCCO
48
Neutral
$566.26M4.92%-17.54%66.05%
ADADV
47
Neutral
$421.61M-42.89%-13.81%-433.86%
* Communication Services Sector Average
Performance Comparison
Ticker
Company Name
Price
Change
% Change
NCMI
National Cinemedia
5.26
0.51
10.74%
CCO
Clear Channel Outdoor
1.14
-0.25
-17.99%
DLX
Deluxe
15.35
-5.49
-26.34%
EEX
Emerald Expositions Events
4.85
-1.01
-17.24%
ADV
Advantage Solutions
1.43
-1.58
-52.49%
NEXN
Nexxen International
10.50
4.15
65.35%

National Cinemedia Corporate Events

Executive/Board ChangesLegal ProceedingsShareholder MeetingsBusiness Operations and StrategyFinancial Disclosures
National Cinemedia Extends Agreement with AMC Theatres
Positive
May 6, 2025

On May 1, 2025, National CineMedia held its Annual Meeting of Stockholders, where all proposals, including the election of directors and executive compensation, were approved. The company reported a decrease in revenue for the first quarter of 2025 compared to the previous year but maintained its financial guidance. A significant development was the extension of a long-term agreement with AMC Theatres, enhancing NCM’s advertising platform and financial outlook by aligning payment structures with performance metrics. This agreement also resolved ongoing litigation, eliminating potential liabilities and streamlining operations.

DividendsBusiness Operations and Strategy
National CineMedia Reintroduces Dividend and New Ad Offering
Positive
Mar 13, 2025

On March 13, 2025, National CineMedia announced the reintroduction of a quarterly dividend and the launch of a new advertising offering during their Investor Day Event. The company declared a cash dividend of $0.03 per share, payable on April 7, 2025, reflecting its improved financial position and strategic focus on enhancing shareholder value.

Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.

Disclaimer

This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.