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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL)
NYSE:NCDL
RESEARCH TOOLSreports
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Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
(NYSE:NCDL)
75Outperform
Positive Factors
Executive Confidence
An executive buying shares of their stock is viewed positively as it signifies confidence in the business.
Investment Growth
Deal activity across Churchill continued at a strong pace, benefiting NCDL, with new commitments totaling $226M and new fundings at $203M.
Liquidity Improvement
Improvement in liquidity is expected to persist, which is seen as a positive for NCDL’s valuation over time.
Negative Factors
Dividend Coverage Challenge
The current SOFR curve suggests challenged base dividend coverage in '26 which is typical across the industry.
Management Watch List
Management's watch list continues to grow, with 9 credits now compared to 7 last quarter.
Valuation Discount
The biggest driver of the current valuation discount has been the lack of liquidity in shares since the IPO.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NCDL) vs. S&P 500 (SPY)
Market Cap
$806.67M
Dividend Yield12.12%
Average Volume (3M)289.45K
Price to Earnings (P/E)7.3
Beta (1Y)0.33
Revenue Growth37.08%
EPS Growth-2.29%
CountryUS
EmployeesN/A
SectorGeneral
Sector StrengthN/A
IndustryAsset Management
Share Statistics
EPS (TTM)0.53
Shares Outstanding51,217,250
10 Day Avg. Volume183,135
30 Day Avg. Volume289,454
Financial Highlights & Ratios
PEG RatioN/A
Price to Book (P/B)N/A
Price to Sales (P/S)0.00
Price to Cash Flow (P/CF)0.00
P/FCF Ratio0.00
Enterprise Value/Market Cap2.43
Enterprise Value/RevenueN/A
Enterprise Value/Gross Profit8.75
Enterprise Value/EbitdaN/A
Forecast
1Y Price Target
$17.42Price Target Upside17.31% Upside
Rating ConsensusModerate Buy
Number of Analyst Covering3
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Business Overview & Revenue Model
Company DescriptionNuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. (NYSE Ticker: NCDL) is a business development company (BDC) focused primarily on investing in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies. Our investment objective is to generate attractive risk-adjusted returns through current income by investing primarily in senior secured loans to private equity-owned U.S. middle market companies.
How the Company Makes MoneyNCDL generates revenue primarily through interest income from its lending activities. By providing loans to middle-market companies, the company earns interest over the term of the loan, which forms the core of its revenue model. Additionally, NCDL may earn fees associated with the origination, structuring, and management of these loan facilities. The company's partnerships with institutional investors and its integration within the broader Nuveen investment network enhance its capacity to source and manage lending deals, thereby contributing to its earnings.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Financial Statement Overview
Summary
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. exhibits strong financial performance with significant revenue growth and high profit margins. The balance sheet is robust, highlighted by asset growth and improved debt-to-equity ratios. However, negative cash flow in 2024 poses potential liquidity concerns that could impact future operations.Income Statement
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. has demonstrated strong revenue growth over recent years, increasing from $13.7 million in 2020 to $224 million in 2024. The gross profit and EBIT margins are notably high, reflecting strong operational efficiency. However, the absence of EBITDA data in the latest period limits a complete profitability analysis.―
Balance Sheet
The company's balance sheet is solid, with total assets growing significantly from $353 million in 2020 to $2.14 billion in 2024. The debt-to-equity ratio has improved substantially, with no debt reported in the latest period, indicating financial stability. High stockholders' equity provides a strong equity ratio, though the rapid increase in liabilities in recent years poses a potential risk.78
Cash Flow
Cash flow from operations has shown fluctuations, with a significant negative operating cash flow in 2024. Free cash flow has also deteriorated, moving from positive in prior years to negative in the most recent period. This indicates potential liquidity challenges, despite historically positive cash flow metrics.―
| Breakdown | ||||
| Dec 2024 | Dec 2023 | Dec 2022 | Dec 2021 | Dec 2020 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Income Statement | Total Revenue | |||
| 224.04M | 153.80M | 82.19M | 37.11M | 13.71M | Gross Profit |
| 224.04M | 141.85M | 73.80M | 32.60M | 11.79M | EBIT |
| 218.01M | 137.14M | 36.99M | 51.51M | 3.81M | EBITDA |
| 0.00 | 137.14M | 42.98M | 37.09M | 6.63M | Net Income Common Stockholders |
| 116.32M | 75.94M | 17.29M | 27.27M | 2.15M |
| Balance Sheet | Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-Term Investments | |||
| 43.25M | 67.44M | 39.32M | 35.19M | 12.61M | Total Assets |
| 2.14B | 1.73B | 1.25B | 820.92M | 353.46M | Total Debt |
| 0.00 | 943.94M | 699.77M | 2.65M | 188.28M | Net Debt |
| -43.25M | -67.39M | 660.45M | -32.53M | 175.67M | Total Liabilities |
| 1.17B | 982.98M | 287.00K | 193.00K | 195.82M | Stockholders Equity |
| 970.32M | 747.88M | 1.25B | 820.92M | 157.64M |
| Cash Flow | Free Cash Flow | |||
| -297.20M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M | 7.52M | Operating Cash Flow |
| -297.20M | 73.05M | 25.14M | 41.32M | 7.52M | Investing Cash Flow |
| 0.00 | -442.57M | -452.99M | -429.62M | -159.25M | Financing Cash Flow |
| 273.06M | 397.65M | 431.93M | 411.70M | 161.33M |
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Technical Analysis
Negative
14.85
Price Trends
16.11
Negative
16.29
Negative
16.16
Negative
Market Momentum
-0.19
Positive
35.00
Neutral
17.23
Positive
Evaluating momentum and price trends is crucial in stock analysis to make informed investment decisions. For NCDL, the sentiment is Negative. The current price of 14.85 is below the 20-day moving average (MA) of 15.41, below the 50-day MA of 16.11, and below the 200-day MA of 16.16, indicating a bearish trend. The MACD of -0.19 indicates Positive momentum. The RSI at 35.00 is Neutral, neither overbought nor oversold. The STOCH value of 17.23 is Positive, not indicating any strong overbought or oversold conditions. Overall, these indicators collectively point to a Negative sentiment for NCDL.
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Risk Analysis
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. disclosed 1 risk factors in its most recent earnings report. Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported the most risks in the “Legal & Regulatory” category.
Finance & Corporate - Financial and accounting risks. Risks related to the execution of corporate activity and strategy
Latest Risks Added 0 New Risks
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Peers Comparison
Overall Rating
UnderperformOutperform
Sector (56)
Financial Indicators
Name | Overall Rating | Market Cap | P/E Ratio | ROE | Dividend Yield | Revenue Growth | EPS Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
75 Outperform | $806.67M | 7.30 | 10.56% | 12.12% | 37.08% | -2.29% | |
71 Outperform | $846.69M | 8.75 | 8.86% | 10.38% | 14.33% | 25.35% | |
70 Outperform | $885.72M | 7.22 | 12.06% | 12.20% | 93.63% | 24.41% | |
68 Neutral | $900.37M | 6.82 | 17.56% | 14.31% | 46.14% | 34.91% | |
67 Neutral | $1.04B | 9.04 | 6.92% | 13.58% | -11.85% | -3.73% | |
66 Neutral | $1.00B | 8.34 | 9.87% | 11.10% | 12.24% | -3.21% | |
56 Neutral | $4.44B | 10.75 | -18.54% | 5.09% | 19.36% | -65.89% |
* General Sector Average
Performance Comparison
NCDL
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp.
14.85
-0.64
-4.13%
PFLT
Pennantpark $
10.08
-0.16
-1.56%
SLRC
SLR Investment Corp.
15.80
1.29
8.89%
CGBD
TCG BDC
13.67
-2.41
-14.99%
BCSF
Bain Capital Specialty Finance
15.13
0.34
2.30%
TRIN
Trinity Capital
14.25
1.25
9.62%
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Date:May 08, 2025
(Q1-2025)
| % Change Since: -4.56%|
Next Earnings Date:Aug 06, 2025
Earnings Call Sentiment Neutral
The earnings call presented a mixed view with robust origination activities and capital structure improvements, but also challenges from tariffs, economic uncertainty, and decreased investment income. The diversification and conservative underwriting provide strength against market volatility, while increased leverage and reduced NAV present concerns.Q1-2025 Updates
Positive Updates
Strong Investment Income and Portfolio Management
Net investment income of $0.53 per share, excluding non-recurring items, was $0.56 per share, consistent with the previous quarter. The portfolio is concentrated in non-cyclical and service-oriented businesses, with a low non-accrual percentage of 0.4%.
Robust Origination and Diversification
New originations totaled $166 million in Q1, with a focus on senior secured first lien loans. The portfolio is highly diversified with an average position size of 0.5% and a top 10 concentration of only 13%.
Capital Structure Optimization
Issued $300 million of unsecured notes, resulting in a diversified and strengthened capital structure. The weighted average spread on debt decreased from SOFR plus 214 basis points to SOFR plus 202 basis points.
Share Repurchase Program
Extended the share repurchase program for another twelve months, with approximately $15 million remaining on the current authorization. The program has been effectively opportunistic, increasing activity when the stock trades at a discount.
Negative Updates
Impact of Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty
Market volatility driven by tariffs and economic uncertainty has led to valuation declines in some watch list names, impacting net asset value and GAAP net income.
Decline in Total Investment Income
Total investment income decreased to $53.6 million from $57.1 million in the previous quarter, primarily due to a decline in interest income as base rates decreased.
Net Asset Value Decline
Net asset value decreased to $17.96 per share from $18.18 per share at the end of 2024, largely due to net realized and unrealized losses.
Increased Leverage Ratios
Gross debt-to-equity ratio increased to 1.31 times, and net debt-to-equity ratio net of cash was 1.25 times, compared to 1.15x and 1.1x respectively at year-end 2024.
Company Guidance
During the first quarter of 2025 earnings call, Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp highlighted several key metrics reflecting their financial performance and strategic positioning. The company reported net investment income of $0.53 per share, with adjustments for non-recurring expenses bringing it to $0.56 per share, matching the previous quarter's results. New originations amounted to $166 million, primarily in senior secured first lien loans, while net asset value per share slightly declined to $17.96 from $18.18. The portfolio remained diversified with an average position size of 0.5% and a low non-accrual percentage of 0.4% of fair value. The weighted average portfolio company net leverage was under five times, and the interest coverage ratio stood at 2.4 times. The company successfully managed its capital structure by issuing $300 million in unsecured notes and reducing the overall weighted average spread on its debt to SOFR plus 202 basis points. With a strong pipeline and strategic asset rotation, Nuveen Churchill plans to maintain its focus on high-quality investments while navigating current market volatility.Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. Corporate Events
DividendsFinancial Disclosures
Nuveen Churchill Reports Strong 2024 Financial Results
Positive
Feb 27, 2025
Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp. reported its financial results for the full year and fourth quarter ending December 31, 2024, on February 27, 2025. The company achieved a net investment income of $0.56 per share for the fourth quarter and declared a first-quarter regular distribution of $0.45 per share. The company experienced a strong year with over $950 million in new investments, reflecting a 40% increase year-over-year. NCDL’s portfolio saw an increase in fair value to $2.08 billion across 210 companies, and the company remains well-positioned with ample liquidity and no near-term debt maturities. The financial results indicate a robust performance with a return on equity of over 12% for the year, supported by high-quality new originations and strategic balance sheet optimization.
Executive/Board Changes
Nuveen Churchill Board Member Michael Perry Resigns
Neutral
Feb 14, 2025
On February 10, 2025, Michael Perry resigned from the Board of Directors of Nuveen Churchill Direct Lending Corp., effective immediately, without any expressed disagreement with the company’s practices. Following his resignation, the Board reduced its size from seven to six directors, indicating a streamlined governance approach.
Glossary
OutperformA stock rated as "Outperform" is expected to perform better than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock is likely to deliver higher returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider this stock a good buying opportunity.
NeutralA stock rated as "Neutral" is expected to perform in line with the overall market or a specific benchmark. This rating indicates that the stock is neither particularly attractive nor unattractive for investment. Investors may consider holding onto the stock, as it is not expected to either significantly outperform or underperform the market.
UnderperformA stock rated as "Underperform" is expected to perform worse than the overall market or a specific benchmark over the near-to-medium term. This rating suggests that the stock may deliver lower returns compared to the average returns of other stocks in the same sector or market index. Investors might consider selling the stock or avoiding it as an investment.
Disclaimer
This AI Analyst Stock Report is automatically generated by our AI systems using advanced algorithms and publicly available financial, technical, and market data. While the information provided aims to be accurate and insightful, it is intended for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial advice. Any content created by an AI (Artificial Intelligence) system may contain inaccuracies and/or contain errors. Investing in stocks carries inherent risks, and past performance is not indicative of future results. This report does not account for your personal financial circumstances, objectives, or risk tolerance. Always conduct your own research or consult with a qualified financial advisor before making investment decisions. The analysis and recommendations provided are based on historical and current data and may not fully reflect future market conditions or unexpected developments. Neither the creators of this report nor its affiliated entities guarantee the accuracy, completeness, or reliability of the information presented. Use this report at your own discretion and risk.