Vista Energy SAB de CV Class A (VISTAA) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive. Vista reported record production, 75% revenue growth, 78% adjusted EBITDA growth, $334 million of quarterly free cash flow, rising cash balances, and substantial deleveraging. Management maintained or improved its 2026 and 2027 outlook, reported sufficient pipeline capacity, and described potential upside from additional drilling, landing zones, M&A, and shareholder returns. The main negatives were a 6% increase in lifting costs, a 6% sequential decline in realized oil prices, negative financing cash flow, near-term production flatness in October and November, and the conditional nature of RIGI-related plans.

Vista said it maintains its 2027 guidance of 185,000 barrel per day production, expects adjusted EBITDA of $3.3 billion assuming Brent of $80, and estimates that a $1 change in Brent or differential leads to a delta of $45 million to $50 million of adjusted EBITDA; for 2026, production is expected to be flat in October and November, Q4 guidance of “more than 170,000 barrel oil per day” was revised so that “this 170 could be about 175,” and the company expects to meet guidance of 158 BOE per day. Activity guidance for 2027 was between 100 and 110 new wells, with the possibility of adding a drilling rig, which “will push us toward the higher end” and “may be even slightly above,” primarily related to Bandurria Norte; assuming the RIGI application get approved, the project will be brought forward from 2029 to next year, with a full update planned in Q4 earnings, in February. Net leverage ratio should reach one time by the end of the year, while the $150 million share buyback plan has $55 million executed and $95 million pending, and the company said it could have “a larger buyback” next year.