TSMC (TSMN) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:TSMN Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 84.83
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 83.37
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 1.46
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 53.28
MX:TSMN Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 873.09B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 854.07B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 19.02B
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +41.11%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/15/2026
- Time
- TBA
- Conference Call
- Thursday, October 15, 2026
TSMC's next earnings date is estimated for January 21, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
The call was strongly positive, supported by a third-quarter revenue beat, a 44% full-year 2026 growth outlook, extremely robust AI and leading-edge demand, broad capacity expansion, and strong cash generation. The main challenges were sequential gross-margin pressure from the 2 nm ramp and overseas fabs, expected overseas-fab dilution of 3%-4% in the next few years, supply and back-end capacity shortages, input-cost inflation, and weaker consumer and price-sensitive markets. Management remained confident in long-term demand and TSMC's technology and manufacturing position.
TSMC expects fourth quarter 2026 revenue to be between $52.3 billion and $54.3 billion, representing a 14% sequential increase or a 58% year-over-year increase at the midpoint, with gross margin between 65% and 67% and operating margin between 56.5% and 58.5%, based on one U.S. dollar to TWD 31.8; full year 2026 revenue growth is expected to be around 44% year-over-year in U.S. dollar term, and the full year 2026 capital budget is reiterated at between $60 billion and $64 billion, while CapEx from 2026 to 2028 is expected to be significantly higher than the past three years and the increase in revenue is expected to outpace the increase in CapEx; gross margin dilution from overseas fabs is expected to be closer to 2% and widen to 3%-4% in the next few years, or 3 percentage point to 4 percentage point in the second part of the five-year period; N2 family technologies annual capacity is expected to more than double in 2027, A14 risk production is well on track for 2027 with volume production starting in 2028, and the company previously guided AI accelerator CAGR to grow mid to high 50s percentage from 2024 to 2029, which “probably will be higher.”
- Strong Third-Quarter Revenue BeatThird-quarter revenue increased 17.6% sequentially in NT dollars and 16.2% sequentially in U.S. dollar terms to $46.7 billion, above the high end of guidance, driven by strong demand for leading-edge process technologies.
- Robust Profitability and ReturnsThird-quarter operating margin was 58.7%, EPS reached TWD 29.43, and ROE was 45.5%. Gross margin was 66.4%.
- Strong Advanced-Node MixAdvanced technologies, defined as 7 nm and below, accounted for 79% of wafer revenue. The mix included 2 nm at 8%, 3 nm at 33%, 5 nm at 28%, and 7 nm at 10% of wafer revenue.
- Broad Growth Across Key PlatformsHPC revenue increased 22% quarter-over-quarter and represented 68% of third-quarter revenue. Smartphone increased 10% to 21% of revenue, IoT increased 5% to 4%, and automotive increased 23% to 4%.
- Strong Fourth-Quarter and Full-Year OutlookFourth-quarter revenue is expected to be between $52.3 billion and $54.3 billion, representing a 14% sequential increase or a 58% year-over-year increase at the midpoint. Full-year 2026 revenue growth is now expected to be around 44% year-over-year in U.S. dollar terms.
- Significant Cash Generation and LiquidityTSMC generated approximately TWD 920 billion in cash from operations during the third quarter, spent TWD 443 billion on CapEx, and ended the quarter with TWD 4 trillion, or $126 billion, in cash and marketable securities. The company said its cash balance increased by TWD 488 billion to TWD 3.6 trillion at quarter-end.
- Continued Commitment to Capital InvestmentTSMC reiterated its 2026 capital budget of between $60 billion and $64 billion. Capital expenditures from 2026 to 2028 are expected to be significantly higher than during the past three years to support customers' growth and the emerging agentic AI market.
- Extremely Strong AI DemandManagement said AI demand is extremely robust, with no sign of slowdown, and that demand remains higher than supply. Demand is being driven by AI accelerators, agentic AI CPUs, networking chips, rising adoption of agentic AI, and increased adoption of open-source AI models.
- Expansion of N2 Capacity and Technology RoadmapN2 entered high-volume manufacturing in the fourth quarter of 2025 with good yield and is ramping in multiple phases at Hsinchu and Kaohsiung. N2 family annual capacity is expected to more than double in 2027, supported by smartphone and HPC AI demand. TSMC has also begun preparing A14 capacity, with risk production on track for 2027 and volume production scheduled for 2028.
- Unprecedented Global Fab ExpansionTSMC said nearly 20 fabs are in progress worldwide, including 13 leading-edge and advanced-packaging fabs in Taiwan and another five to six fabs overseas. The company is evaluating additional U.S. capacity, including Texas, and said any potential fab discussed with a customer would have to be run by TSMC.
- Accelerated 3 nm Capacity Build-OutTSMC is adding three new fabs to support the multi-year demand pipeline for 3 nm. A new Tainan fab is scheduled to begin volume production in the first half of 2027, an additional Tainan 3 nm fab is scheduled for the first half of 2028, Arizona's second fab is expected to begin volume production in the third quarter of 2027, and Japan's second fab is scheduled for 2028.
- Advanced-Packaging LeadershipTSMC is in real-world production of 5x reticle-size advanced packaging with excellent yield and said it is the only company currently doing so. It is working on 9x and 14x reticle-size solutions, while continuing to develop CoWoS. Management said CoWoS remains customers' number-one choice and that TSMC would support customers if competing solutions could not deliver.
- Manufacturing Productivity and Capacity OptimizationTSMC is using productivity improvements, flexible capacity support among N7, N5, and N3, conversion of 5 nm tools to support 3 nm, and capacity optimization across nodes to increase wafer output and support customers.
- High NA EUV Adoption PlanTSMC plans to begin using High NA EUV in 2030, when management expects the technology to be mature and its cost to be reasonable for mass production. TSMC is also working with ASML to establish a 12-inch photomask by 2031.
- Strong Long-Term Capacity and Revenue EconomicsManagement said revenue growth is expected to outpace CapEx growth if the company executes well. TSMC also said there is no ceiling for its profitability, although a dramatic increase will not happen overnight.
- Strategic Customer and Supply-Chain SupportTSMC said it treats IDM and fabless customers fairly while considering their internal capacity. It is also working with GlobalFoundries on silicon interposers as part of its back-end supply strategy to address a shortage and provide customers with sufficient capacity.
- Pricing Strategy Focused on Value RecognitionManagement said pricing is strategic and depends on the market segment, location, and technology. TSMC aims to have the value of its technologies recognized and to deliver maximum value to shareholders.
- Disciplined Capacity PlanningTSMC said its capacity-planning process considers customer demand, data-center build-outs, financial conditions, power supply, and other component availability. The company also sends teams to evaluate U.S. data-center progress and power supply, with feedback described as so far good.
- Commitment to Shareholder ReturnsDespite higher investment, TSMC remains committed to profitable growth and to a sustainable and steadily increasing cash dividend per share on both an annual and quarterly basis.
MX:TSMN Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 21, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 95.21- | 57.77 | ― | ― |
| Oct 15, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 83.3784.83 | 53.28 | 59.21% (+31.55) | |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 71.2578.94 | 48.85 | 61.60% (+30.09) | |
| Apr 16, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 61.7465.49 | 40.08 | 63.42% (+25.42) | |
| Jan 15, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 54.3157.77 | 41.03 | 40.79% (+16.74) | |
| Oct 16, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 49.1153.28 | 36.47 | 46.10% (+16.81) | |
| Jul 17, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 44.5148.85 | 27.42 | 78.17% (+21.43) | |
| Apr 17, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 38.7340.08 | 25.15 | 59.33% (+14.92) | |
| Jan 16, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 41.0541.03 | 27.27 | 50.48% (+13.76) | |
| Oct 17, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 33.4836.47 | 23.53 | 55.01% (+12.94) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.