Gentherm (THRM) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For 2026, Gentherm expects midpoint guidance of revenue of $1.875 billion, adjusted EBITDA of $220 million and free cash flow of approximately $110 million with assumed CapEx of $55 million, including approximately $275 million of revenue, approximately $28 million of adjusted EBITDA and approximately $15 million to $20 million of free cash flow from Modine’s fourth quarter contribution; the legacy Gentherm business is expected to grow mid- to high single digits for the year, with revenue trending towards the higher end of the previous range, while EBITDA is expected to remain near the midpoint and margins are expected to be sequentially higher in the fourth quarter compared to Q3. Gentherm expects to secure at least $2 billion in awards for the fourth consecutive year, build a $100 million home and office business by 2028, with very strong visibility to $30 million in annualized revenue by 2028, and has put out a $1.7 billion revenue number for 2027 for the legacy Gentherm business; revenue synergies will start seeing green shoots in '28, appreciably start seeing some revenue flow through in '29, with the bulk hitting in 2030, while the combined business is expected to generate more than $3.5 billion in revenue and over $500 million in adjusted EBITDA by 2030, with more than $1 billion in adjusted unlevered free cash flow over the next 4 years and $25 million in cost synergies.