Stag Industrial (STAG) Q3 2026 Earnings Report
MX:STAG Q3 2026 EPS Results
- Actual EPS
- MXN 6.91
- Consensus EPS
- MXN 5.08
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 1.83
- One Year Ago EPS
- MXN 4.85
MX:STAG Q3 2026 Revenue Results
- Actual Revenue
- MXN 4.31B
- Expected Revenue
- MXN 4.24B
- Beat/Miss
- Beat by +MXN 72.47M
- YoY Revenue Growth
- +9.44%
Earnings Announcement Details
- Quarter
- Q3 2026
- Date
- 10/27/2026
- Time
- After Close
- Conference Call
- Tuesday, October 27, 2026
MX:STAG Upcoming Earnings
Stag Industrial's next earnings date is estimated for February 17, 2027, based on past reporting schedules.
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Audio
MX:STAG Q3 2026 Earnings Call
0:00 / 0:00
Q3 2026 Earnings Slide Deck
Q3 2026 Earnings Call Summary
Earnings Call Sentiment|Positive
The call was predominantly positive. Management reported improving industrial fundamentals, strong leasing spreads and retention, higher same-store and corporate book guidance, better-than-expected credit loss performance, investment-grade ratings, substantial liquidity, and progress across acquisitions and development. The main challenges were Reno leasing risk, short-term El Paso weakness, higher G&A guidance, credit exposure among smaller leveraged tenants, and capital markets uncertainty limiting near-term acquisition activity. The positive operating and balance-sheet developments significantly outweighed the stated challenges.
Company Guidance
For 2026, average same store occupancy guidance is a range of 96.75% to 97.25%, cash same store growth guidance is a range of 3.5-3.75%, expected acquisition volume is a range of $530 million to $600 million, stabilized capitalization rate is expected to range between 6.3-6.4%, G&A guidance is a range of $56 million to $57 million, and corporate book guidance is a range of $2.64 to $2.66 per share; market rent growth for next year is expected to be in the range of 2-4%, leasing spreads next year are expected to be around 15%, and with moderate market rent growth, leasing spreads are probably in the low double digits to mid double digits as you move out to 2028, 2029, while contractual escalators are around 3%, credit loss is baked in at 50 basis points, and cash same store growth is close to the mid single digits, c. 5%.
- Improving Industrial Market FundamentalsNational vacancy rates declined from the prior quarter. Net absorption totaled approximately 75 million square feet in the third quarter, the highest quarterly figure since early 2023, and exceeded 69 million square feet in each of the last two quarters. Year-to-date absorption surpassed 186 million square feet, with noncoastal markets accounting for 80% of year-to-date absorption.
- Disciplined New Construction and Broad-Based DemandProduct under construction represented less than 2% of existing inventory, with much of it committed through preleasing or build-to-suit agreements. Demand was primarily driven by 3PLs, advanced manufacturing, and data center-related tenants.
- Strong Data Center-Related LeasingSTAG has leased 2.5 million square feet to data center-related tenants since the start of 2025, representing 26% of all new operating portfolio leasing during that period. Data center-related leasing represented approximately 30% of new leasing year-to-date in 2026, compared with 20% in 2025. These leases carry weighted average lease terms of 6 to 7 years and were described as being with good credits.
- Expected Acceleration in Market Rent GrowthManagement expects market rent growth of 2% to 4% in 2027, compared with 1.6% market rent growth expected for 2026. Strength was particularly evident in Greenville-Spartanburg, where vacancy declined from double-digit levels to approximately mid-single digits, and in Columbus for big-box distribution assets.
- Positive Acquisition ActivityThird-quarter acquisition volume totaled $107.9 million across two buildings, at cash and straight-line cap rates of 6.9% and 7.2%, respectively. Subsequent to quarter-end, STAG acquired one building for $55 million at cash and straight-line cap rates of 6.7% and 7.1%, respectively.
- Development Platform ExpansionSTAG had seven buildings totaling 1.8 million square feet under development activity and not yet in service at the end of the third quarter, with an expected stabilized yield of 7%. The company executed two development leases totaling 69,000 square feet, bringing the Resource Drive building in Reno to 62% leased and the Piedmont Commerce Street building in Charlotte to 100% leased.
- Development Pipeline and Leasing ProgressDevelopment has become a core part of the business, with more than $100 million of annual starts expected to trend upward. STAG was tracking more than $500 million of investment across 16 buildings in 11 markets, with more than 20% in the build-to-suit category. The under-construction portfolio was 48% leased, while completed projects not yet in service brought total occupancy to approximately 37% for the 1.8 million-square-foot active project portfolio.
- Strong Leasing Spreads and RetentionSTAG commenced 30 leases covering 3.6 million square feet during the quarter, generating cash and straight-line leasing spreads of 23.8% and 35.7%, respectively. Quarterly retention was 90.3%. Approximately 40% of the 2027 leasing plan was completed with 12% cash rollover spreads, or 17.5% excluding fixed renewal options, and management expects leasing spreads of approximately 15% next year.
- Same-Store NOI Growth and Guidance IncreaseSame-store cash NOI grew 3.5% in the quarter and 3.9% year-to-date. Average same-store occupancy guidance was increased to 96.75% to 97.25%, a 25-basis-point increase at the midpoint. Cash same-store growth guidance was raised from 3% to 3.5% to 3.5% to 3.75%, driven by higher occupancy expectations and lower-than-expected cash credit loss.
- Core FFO GrowthCore FFO per share was $0.66 for the quarter, an increase of 1.5% compared with the prior year.
- Improved Credit Loss PerformanceCredit loss totaled 12 basis points through the third quarter, compared with an initial full-year expectation of 50 basis points. Better-than-expected credit loss performance was identified as one of the primary drivers of the increase in same-store guidance.
- Balance Sheet Liquidity and Debt ManagementNet debt to annualized run-rate adjusted EBITDA was 5.1 times, and liquidity was $546 million. STAG repaid a $50 million private placement note that matured on July 1, combined two term loans into a single $350 million term loan maturing in January 2032, and repriced its revolver and term loans to save 5 basis points across bank debt.
- Investment Grade Credit RatingsS&P Global Ratings assigned STAG an investment-grade BBB rating with a stable outlook in August. The company also maintains BBB stable and Baa2 stable ratings from Fitch and Moody's, respectively.
- Updated Full-Year GuidanceExpected acquisition volume was narrowed to $530 million to $600 million, with a stabilized capitalization rate range of 6.3% to 6.4%. Updated guidance resulted in corporate book guidance of $2.64 to $2.66 per share, an increase of $0.02 at the midpoint. Management stated that the company expects to finish 2026 ahead of its initial budgets and is well positioned for 2027.
- Capital Flexibility and Comfortable Funding PositionSTAG had $70 million of total forward equity net proceeds available to settle at its discretion, $500 million of revolver capacity referenced during the call, and $130 million of cash retained after dividends. Management said the company does not currently need additional capital and is comfortable from a capital perspective.
- Shorter Leasing Timelines in Tight MarketsManagement said leasing gestation periods have shortened in markets where vacancy has declined. In Greenville-Spartanburg, certain Class A buildings larger than 300,000 square feet moved from double-digit vacancy at the beginning of 2025 to close to zero, creating urgency among tenants.
- Supply Chain Diversification Supporting DemandManagement cited tenant efforts to diversify supply chains, onshore manufacturing, bring goods into the United States through other ports, and nearshore operations as ongoing demand drivers. Management also cited pent-up demand following several years of unusually low industrial demand.
MX:STAG Earnings History
| Report Date | Fiscal Quarter | Forecast / EPS | Last Year's EPS | EPS YoY Change | Press Release |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Feb 17, 2027 | 2026 (Q4) | 4.29- | 8.21 | ― | ― |
| Oct 27, 2026 | 2026 (Q3) | 5.086.91 | 4.85 | 42.31% (+2.05) | |
| Jul 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q2) | 5.045.23 | 5.04 | 3.70% (+0.19) | |
| Apr 28, 2026 | 2026 (Q1) | 4.245.97 | 9.14 | -34.69% (-3.17) | |
| Feb 11, 2026 | 2025 (Q4) | 4.188.21 | 5.23 | 57.14% (+2.99) | |
| Oct 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q3) | 4.784.85 | 4.29 | 13.04% (+0.56) | |
| Jul 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q2) | 4.115.04 | 6.16 | -18.18% (-1.12) | |
| Apr 29, 2025 | 2025 (Q1) | 3.559.14 | 3.73 | 145.00% (+5.41) | |
| Feb 12, 2025 | 2024 (Q4) | 3.705.23 | 4.29 | 21.74% (+0.93) | |
| Oct 29, 2024 | 2024 (Q3) | 3.124.29 | 5.23 | -17.86% (-0.93) |
The table shows recent earnings report dates and whether the forecast was beat or missed. See the change in forecast and EPS from the previous year.
Beat Missed