Rocket Companies (RKT) AI Stock Analysis

Company Guidance

For the fourth quarter, Rocket expects adjusted revenue to be between $2.1 billion and $2.3 billion, with continued share gains; at the midpoint of the revenue range, it expects total expenses of $2.05 billion, including $110 million of intangible amortization, $80 million of stock based compensation, and $10 million of 1-time integration costs, or $1.85 billion excluding these items, a decline of $165 million from the third quarter. The company expects to realize the remaining $100 million of annualized Mr. Cooper expense synergies in the fourth quarter, reaching the full $400 million, a year ahead of the original timeline, and expects an additional $100 million in annual savings in the first half of 2027. Management expects the refinance market to decline by almost half from the third quarter, with overall mortgage activity near multi decade lows; seasonality is usually 15 to 18% down on a historical basis when comparing Q4 to Q3, and refinance volume could see a 50% decrease going into Q4, making it could be 1 of our lowest origination quarters in 3 decades. For 2027, forecasts are below $2 trillion, and Rocket thinks it could actually be even smaller still.