Novavax (NVAX) Q3 2026 Earnings Report

The call was strongly positive, with substantial progress in Sanofi partnership milestones, commercial activity, cash runway, cost reductions, revenue guidance, Matrix-M demand, and pipeline development. The main challenges were lower quarterly revenue due to declining R&D reimbursement, uncertainty around future COVID market dollars and partner timelines, potential non-cash write-offs, and the early-stage nature of the C. diff and oncology programs. Highlights significantly outweighed the lowlights.

Novavax raised its full year 2026 revenue framework by $145 million and expects adjusted total revenue of $400 million at midpoint with a range of between $385 million and $415 million; it expects full year 2026 combined GAAP R&D and SG&A of $385 million at midpoint, while reiterating a non-GAAP midpoint of $325 million and narrowing the range to $315 million-$335 million. It expects to include the $75 million Sanofi tech transfer milestone in the third quarter of 2027, while R&D reimbursement and Sanofi amortization are expected to become very small contributors to revenue and to end during 2027. Looking forward to 2028, it expects to reduce non-GAAP R&D and SG&A expenses by over 200 million, reflecting a greater than 50% decrease when compared to 2025, and separately has a target of $150 million-$200 million by 2028; it anticipates less than half the headcount as compared to the first quarter 2026 and is exploring an over 50% reduction to its operating footprint. This could result in non-cash fixed asset write-offs of up to 35 million during 2027 and could translate into 2027 GAAP combined R&D and SG&A of up to $265 million at midpoint; the company expects cash runway through and well into 2029, APA-era liabilities paid off by the first quarter of 2029, and a potential U.S. CIC commercial launch in 2029 triggering a $225 million milestone.